MLB matchup analysis
Dodgers vs Reds Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, September 14, 2026 at Great American Ball Park · 6:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for Cincinnati Reds
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Los Angeles Dodgers is a value watch, not an official pick. Leo projects 73.6% against a 66.1% no-vig market number, a 7.5% model edge at -211. Lab Rating 7.9/10: conviction 9.31, pitching plan 40, offense 29.37. Los Angeles Dodgers's pen efficiency: Below average (4.0/10). It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review. Lineup check: Los Angeles Dodgers is near its season form (+0.014 OPS); Cincinnati Reds is a touch above its season form (+0.045 OPS).
Final result
Dodgers 4, Reds 1
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Dodgers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Tarik Skubal (Los Angeles Dodgers), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Nick Lodolo: 7.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 7.0 IP, 4 ER (5.14 ERA). The edge held up.
The Cincinnati Reds bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers scored 4, 4 fewer than the 8 pregame projection.
Cincinnati Reds scored 1, 3.2 fewer than the 4.2 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, September 14, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Great American Ball Park |
| Starting pitchers | Tarik Skubal vs Nick Lodolo |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 69°F, 0% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from E. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Dodgers | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 5 |
| Throws | L | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 83 | 50 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.70 | 5.12 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.95 | 1.49 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.6 | 7.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 25.9% | 8.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 30.2% | 18.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 4.4% | 9.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.1% | 52.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 46.9% | 48.0% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Tarik Skubal a 33-point edge over Nick Lodolo, driven mainly by K-BB% (25.9% vs 8.5%) and BB/9 (1.5 vs 3.9).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Reds are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.15 against -0.99).
| Metric | Dodgers | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.773 | 0.750 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.344 | 0.328 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.9 | 4.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.4% | 27.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Dodgers | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.719 (-0.038 vs szn) | 0.712 (+0.009 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.89 (-0.078 vs szn) | 4.41 (+0.247 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.321 (-0.012 vs szn) | 0.313 |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.4% | 26.8% (+1.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Dodgers have been the better offense, 0.321 wOBA to 0.313. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.012 wOBA). Reds are striking out at 26.8% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Dodgers | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 90-59 | 70-79 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.15 | -0.99 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.97 | 4.17 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.81 | 5.15 |
| Season OPS | 0.759 | 0.705 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.5% | 25.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.746 | 0.754 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Dodgers and Reds are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Dodgers | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.5/10, Normal | 9.4/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 4.0/10, Below average | 1.6/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 5.0/10, Normal | 10.0/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 16.3 | 31.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.96 | 10.16 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.65 | 1.87 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.3 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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