MLB matchup analysis
Tigers vs White Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at Rate Field · 2:10 PM ET
Leo prediction: Detroit Tigers moneyline
The case for Detroit Tigers
The case for Chicago White Sox
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Detroit Tigers is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 69.0% model win probability and 7.6/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 69.0% against a 48.2% no-vig market number, a 20.8% model edge at +103. Detroit Tigers owns the starting pitcher edge by 13 points. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. Detroit Tigers's pen efficiency: Effective (6.8/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 18.2 points from 87.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 69.0%. Lineup check: Detroit Tigers is swinging a hot bat (+0.072 OPS); Chicago White Sox is a touch below its season form (-0.041 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Tigers 1, White Sox 8
How the analysis held up
Chicago White Sox won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Troy Melton (Detroit Tigers) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Davis Martin actually pitched better tonight: 4.1 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 3.2 IP, 4 ER (9.82 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Detroit Tigers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 4 earned runs allowed over 4.1 relief innings (8.31 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The Chicago White Sox bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 4.2 innings (1.93 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Likely driver: Troy Melton, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 9.82 ERA, and the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Rate Field |
| Starting pitchers | Troy Melton vs Davis Martin |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 63°F, 9% precipitation chance, 22 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Tigers | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 75 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.76 | 3.84 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.13 | 1.29 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.4 | 7.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 12.1% | 12.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 20.0% | 19.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.9% | 7.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.4% | 48.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 54.6% | 51.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Troy Melton a 10-point edge over Davis Martin, driven mainly by ERA (2.76 vs 3.84) and WHIP (1.13 vs 1.29).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Tigers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 5.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; White Sox are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.44 against +0.27).
| Metric | Tigers | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.790 | 0.679 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.349 | 0.305 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.5 | 4.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.1% | 28.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Tigers | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.680 (-0.037 vs szn) | 0.700 (-0.021 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.14 (-0.330 vs szn) | 4.41 (-0.285 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.303 (-0.014 vs szn) | 0.314 |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.0% (+1.2% vs szn) | 25.8% (+1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the White Sox have been the better offense, 0.314 wOBA to 0.303. White Sox are striking out at 25.8% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Tigers | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 73-82 | 79-76 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.44 | +0.27 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.47 | 4.70 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.03 | 4.43 |
| Season OPS | 0.718 | 0.720 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.8% | 24.2% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.724 | 0.712 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Tigers and White Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Tigers | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.7/10, Tired | 8.3/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.8/10, Effective | 4.9/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 5.8/10, Normal | 8.4/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 31.0 | 36.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.03 | 3.96 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.94 | 1.43 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.4 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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