MLB matchup analysis
Giants vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 4:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Giants vs Dodgers
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for San Francisco Giants
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Giants 1, Dodgers 3
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Dodgers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Jack Dreyer (Los Angeles Dodgers) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Matt Wilkinson actually pitched better tonight: 5.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 1.0 IP, 1 ER (9.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The San Francisco Giants bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 3 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (9.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 8.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
San Francisco Giants scored 1, 3.7 fewer than the 4.7 pregame projection.
Los Angeles Dodgers scored 3, 2.9 fewer than the 5.9 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 PM ET |
| Venue | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Matt Wilkinson vs Jack Dreyer |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 75°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Giants | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 4 | 1 |
| Throws | L | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 69 | 71 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.65 | 3.28 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.01 | 1.14 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.6 | 10.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.1% | 18.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.2% | 27.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 4.0% | 9.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 3.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 28.6% | 51.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 71.4% | 48.6% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives the Los Angeles Dodgers pitching plan the edge over the San Francisco Giants pitching plan (7 points on Leo's pitcher score). Both starters are projected for a short outing, so this compares each side's blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not the two starters directly.
Blended read: For the San Francisco Giants, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Matt Wilkinson (about 4 innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.86 rather than Matt Wilkinson's own 3.65. For the Los Angeles Dodgers, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Jack Dreyer (about 1 innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.43 rather than Jack Dreyer's own 3.28. Whole-game, that is 3.43 for the Los Angeles Dodgers against 3.86 on the other side, so the blended read leans Los Angeles Dodgers.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Giants are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 6.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.24 against -0.54).
| Metric | Giants | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 10-0 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.725 | 0.846 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.319 | 0.372 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.8 | 6.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.9% | 18.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Giants | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.727 (+0.014 vs szn) | 0.761 |
| Runs per game | 4.93 (+0.726 vs szn) | 5.00 |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.321 (+0.008 vs szn) | 0.340 |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.9% (+2.2% vs szn) | 19.6% (-0.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Dodgers have been the better offense, 0.340 wOBA to 0.321.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Giants | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 64-91 | 95-60 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.54 | +1.24 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.21 | 5.00 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.74 | 3.76 |
| Season OPS | 0.716 | 0.764 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 20.3% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.671 | 0.757 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Giants and Dodgers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Giants | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.4/10, Tired | 7.8/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.5/10, Average | 4.4/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 6.7/10, Tired | 8.1/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.0 | 27.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.29 | 5.00 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.57 | 1.37 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 5.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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