Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Monday, October 5, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
2
OFFICIAL PICKS
1
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
0
PASSES
1
Updated Oct 5, 10:31 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
Official markets
Moneyline: New York Yankees -124
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.1/10
- Model probability
- 72.1%
- Market probability
- 53.2%
- Model vs market
- +18.8%
- Current price
- -117
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (New York Yankees 4.7/10, Tampa Bay Rays 4.3/10).
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Yankees is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 72.1% chance to win, compared with the market's 53.2% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.1/10 Lab Rating. New York Yankees has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 24 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (New York Yankees 3.2/10, Tampa Bay Rays 3.5/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.0 points from 94.1% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.1%. At -117, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.6/10
- Model probability
- 70.8%
- Market probability
- 58.9%
- Model vs market
- +11.8%
- Current price
- -151
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cleveland Guardians is 5.4/10 and Chicago White Sox is 6.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.