Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Thursday, October 1, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
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OFFICIAL PICKS
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across all markets
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Updated Oct 1, 9:49 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Aaron Nola Over 3.5 -121
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 64.6%
- Market probability
- 50.8%
- Model vs market
- +13.9%
- Current price
- -106
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Atlanta Braves is 7.3/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 6.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Atlanta Braves is using a bullpen game. Ray Kerr is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.4/10 risk with 4.8/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.8/10 for Atlanta Braves versus 1.6/10 for Philadelphia Phillies.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Atlanta Braves is using a bullpen game. Ray Kerr is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.4/10 risk with 4.8/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.8/10 for Atlanta Braves versus 1.6/10 for Philadelphia Phillies.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.