MLB matchup analysis
Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at Truist Park · 8:00 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Phillies vs Braves
The case for Atlanta Braves
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Phillies 2, Braves 6
How the analysis held up
Atlanta Braves won, the side Leo's model favored.
Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Aaron Nola: 3.1 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 1.2 IP, 3 ER (16.20 ERA). The edge held up.
The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 6.1 innings (4.26 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The Atlanta Braves bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 5.2 innings (3.18 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Game information
| Matchup | Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, October 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Truist Park |
| Starting pitchers | Aaron Nola vs Ray Kerr |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 77°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 3 |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 59 | 76 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.67 | 1.47 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.35 | 0.60 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.1 | 5.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.9% | 13.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.8% | 16.7% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.9% | 3.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.4% | 50.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 52.6% | 50.0% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives the Atlanta Braves pitching plan the edge over Aaron Nola (7 points on Leo's pitcher score). Ray Kerr is projected for only 3 innings, with the Atlanta Braves bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the Atlanta Braves blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Aaron Nola's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Atlanta Braves, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Ray Kerr (about 3 innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 4.14 rather than Ray Kerr's own 1.47. Whole-game, that is 4.14 for the Atlanta Braves against 5.63 on the other side, so the blended read leans Atlanta Braves.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Phillies are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Braves are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Braves carry the better run differential per game (+0.72 against +0.09).
| Metric | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.646 | 0.668 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.294 | 0.295 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.2 | 4.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 17.9% | 21.7% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.660 (-0.047 vs szn) | 0.687 (-0.031 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.71 (-0.693 vs szn) | 4.29 (-0.289 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.295 (-0.017 vs szn) | 0.302 (-0.014 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.3% (-2.4% vs szn) | 21.5% |
Over the last 30 days the Braves have been the better offense, 0.302 wOBA to 0.295. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.014 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 88-74 | 94-68 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.09 | +0.72 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.40 | 4.58 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.31 | 3.86 |
| Season OPS | 0.707 | 0.718 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 21.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.705 | 0.730 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.2/10, Tired | 7.3/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 1.6/10, Struggling | 4.8/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.9/10, Tired | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.3 | 23.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 8.49 | 4.70 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.89 | 1.26 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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