MLB matchup analysis
Royals vs Astros Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at Daikin Park · 8:10 PM ET
Leo prediction: Kansas City Royals moneyline
The case for Kansas City Royals
The case for Houston Astros
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Kansas City Royals remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.7/10: conviction 3.62, pitching plan 30.67, offense 32.42. Leo projects 62.2% against a 43.2% no-vig market number, a 19.0% model edge at +127. Kansas City Royals owns the starting pitcher edge by 5 points. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. Kansas City Royals's pen efficiency: Average (4.7/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 10.9 points from 73.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 62.2%. Lineup check: Kansas City Royals is a touch below its season form (-0.033 OPS); Houston Astros is a touch below its season form (-0.027 OPS).
Final result
Royals 2, Astros 4
How the analysis held up
Houston Astros won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Michael Wacha (Kansas City Royals) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Hunter Brown actually pitched better tonight: 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 4 ER (6.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Kansas City Royals bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 2.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The Houston Astros bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 4.0 innings (2.25 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Likely driver: Michael Wacha, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 6.00 ERA, and the opposing starter (1.80 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Daikin Park |
| Starting pitchers | Michael Wacha vs Hunter Brown |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 86°F, 5% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from SE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Royals | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 73 | 68 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.29 | 3.38 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.10 | 1.28 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.2 | 10.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.2% | 15.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.7% | 27.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.5% | 12.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.4 | 4.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.3% | 61.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 57.7% | 38.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Michael Wacha a 5-point edge over Hunter Brown, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.4 vs 4.5) and expected innings (6.2 vs 5.3).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Neither side is playing well. Royals are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Astros are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.64 against -0.34).
| Metric | Royals | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.681 | 0.696 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.301 | 0.304 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.8% | 23.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Royals | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.762 (+0.048 vs szn) | 0.675 (-0.048 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.67 (+0.455 vs szn) | 3.67 (-0.790 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.334 (+0.020 vs szn) | 0.296 (-0.021 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.3% (-1.6% vs szn) | 24.0% (+2.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Royals have been the better offense, 0.334 wOBA to 0.296. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.020 wOBA). Astros are striking out at 24.0% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Royals | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 66-84 | 75-75 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.64 | -0.34 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.21 | 4.46 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.85 | 4.79 |
| Season OPS | 0.714 | 0.723 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.9% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.725 | 0.727 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Royals and Astros are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Royals | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.9/10, Normal | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.7/10, Average | 3.6/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 5.1/10, Normal | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 17.3 | 24.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.63 | 6.29 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.73 | 1.40 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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