MLB matchup analysis
Giants vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at Busch Stadium · 7:45 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Giants vs Cardinals
The case for St. Louis Cardinals
The case for San Francisco Giants
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Giants 10, Cardinals 3
How the analysis held up
San Francisco Giants won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Andre Pallante (St. Louis Cardinals) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Blade Tidwell actually pitched better tonight: 6.2 IP, 2 ER (2.70 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 6 ER (10.80 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 4.0 innings (4.50 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 2 of the runs charged to the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Likely driver: Andre Pallante, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 10.80 ERA.
Game information
| Matchup | San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:45 PM ET |
| Venue | Busch Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Blade Tidwell vs Andre Pallante |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 86°F, 9% precipitation chance, 9 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Giants | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 56 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.80 | 3.70 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.24 | 1.26 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.1 | 6.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.9% | 9.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.8% | 16.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.9% | 7.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 34.6% | 63.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 65.4% | 36.6% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Andre Pallante a 9-point edge over Blade Tidwell, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.66 vs 1.24) and expected innings (5.6 vs 4.8).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Giants are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Cardinals are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Cardinals carry the better run differential per game (-0.09 against -0.47).
| Metric | Giants | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.755 | 0.751 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.331 | 0.330 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.7% | 20.7% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Giants | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.730 (+0.014 vs szn) | 0.718 (+0.018 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.86 (+0.632 vs szn) | 5.21 (+0.681 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.322 (+0.008 vs szn) | 0.317 (+0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.2% (+2.7% vs szn) | 22.2% (+1.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Giants have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.317. Giants are striking out at 24.2% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Giants | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 62-89 | 75-76 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.47 | -0.09 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.23 | 4.53 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.70 | 4.61 |
| Season OPS | 0.716 | 0.701 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.5% | 20.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.735 | 0.697 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Giants and Cardinals are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Giants | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.1/10, Tired | 7.5/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 7.6/10, Dominant | 3.8/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 5.8/10, Normal | 8.1/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.0 | 21.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 8 |
| 7-day ERA | 0.69 | 5.57 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.00 | 1.52 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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