MLB matchup analysis
Rockies vs Yankees Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, September 10, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 7:05 PM ET
Leo prediction: New York Yankees moneyline
The case for New York Yankees
The case for Colorado Rockies
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Yankees remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.3/10: conviction 9.3, pitching plan 38.67, offense 24.77. Leo projects 73.6% against a 71.5% no-vig market number, a 2.1% model edge at -278. New York Yankees owns the starting pitcher edge by 36 points. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. New York Yankees's pen efficiency: Effective (7.0/10). Lineup check: New York Yankees is near its season form (+0.015 OPS); Colorado Rockies is near its season form (+0.008 OPS).
Final result
Rockies 3, Yankees 10
How the analysis held up
New York Yankees won, the side Leo's model favored.
Max Fried (New York Yankees), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Ryan Feltner: 3.1 IP, 1 ER (2.70 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 4 ER (7.20 ERA). The edge held up.
The Colorado Rockies bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 6 earned runs over 3.0 innings (18.00 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The New York Yankees bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 5.2 relief innings (1.59 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the New York Yankees pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
New York Yankees scored 10, 4.3 more than the 5.7 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, September 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Ryan Feltner vs Max Fried |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 81°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rockies | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 43 | 79 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.94 | 2.73 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.56 | 0.99 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.7 | 8.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 6.6% | 16.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 16.5% | 24.6% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.9% | 8.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.8% | 50.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.2% | 49.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Max Fried a 36-point edge over Ryan Feltner, driven mainly by WHIP (0.99 vs 1.56) and ERA (2.73 vs 5.94).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rockies are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.90 against -1.05).
| Metric | Rockies | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 2-8 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.746 | 0.735 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.329 | 0.325 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.8% | 23.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rockies | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.709 (-0.028 vs szn) | 0.725 |
| Runs per game | 4.37 (-0.328 vs szn) | 4.86 (+0.289 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.314 (-0.011 vs szn) | 0.321 |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.7% (+1.7% vs szn) | 24.9% |
Over the last 30 days the Yankees have been the better offense, 0.321 wOBA to 0.314. Yankees are striking out at 24.9% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rockies | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 55-90 | 83-62 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -1.05 | +0.90 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.70 | 4.57 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.75 | 3.67 |
| Season OPS | 0.738 | 0.720 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 23.0% | 24.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.701 | 0.710 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rockies and Yankees are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rockies | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.7/10, Normal | 4.4/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 2.5/10, Struggling | 7.0/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.0/10, Tired | 3.4/10, Fresh |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 17.7 | 13.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 7.64 | 1.98 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.58 | 0.88 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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