MLB matchup analysis
Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Truist Park · 7:15 PM ET
Leo prediction: Philadelphia Phillies moneyline
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
The case for Atlanta Braves
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Philadelphia Phillies remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.0/10: conviction 4.24, pitching plan 33.33, offense 32.92. Leo projects 63.5% against a 44.6% no-vig market number, a 18.9% model edge at +122. Philadelphia Phillies owns the starting pitcher edge by 10 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Philadelphia Phillies's pen efficiency: Average (4.7/10). Pitching plan: Tim Mayza 1.6 IP + remaining bullpen 7.4 IP. Bullpen fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk grade only the innings assigned to the bullpen. Lineup check: Philadelphia Phillies is a touch below its season form (-0.049 OPS); Atlanta Braves is a touch below its season form (-0.049 OPS).
Final result
Phillies 2, Braves 12
How the analysis held up
Atlanta Braves won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Tim Mayza (Philadelphia Phillies), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Tyler Mahle: 3.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 7.0 IP, 1 ER (1.29 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 6 earned runs allowed over 5.0 relief innings (10.80 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied. Note: 6 of the runs charged to the Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Philadelphia Phillies scored 2, 2.3 fewer than the 4.3 pregame projection.
Atlanta Braves scored 12, 9.6 more than the 2.4 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Atlanta Braves's offense scored 9.6 more runs than projected, and the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen allowed 6 earned runs over 5.0 relief innings (10.80 ERA), which was not flagged pregame but showed up anyway.
Game information
| Matchup | Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Truist Park |
| Starting pitchers | Tim Mayza vs Tyler Mahle |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 79°F, 1% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from E. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 2 | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 75 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.08 | 4.00 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.04 | 1.26 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.8 | 8.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 19.0% | 15.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 24.9% | 22.7% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.9% | 7.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.1 | 2.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.3% | 51.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 46.7% | 48.8% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives the Philadelphia Phillies pitching plan the edge over Tyler Mahle (11 points on Leo's pitcher score). Tim Mayza is projected for only 2 innings, with the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the Philadelphia Phillies blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Tyler Mahle's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Philadelphia Phillies, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Tim Mayza (about 2 innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.53 rather than Tim Mayza's own 3.08. Whole-game, that is 3.33 for the Atlanta Braves against 3.53 on the other side, so the blended read leans Atlanta Braves.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Phillies are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days; Braves are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Braves carry the better run differential per game (+0.81 against +0.17).
| Metric | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.661 | 0.669 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.295 | 0.295 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.9% | 20.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.725 (+0.015 vs szn) | 0.657 (-0.063 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.85 (+0.382 vs szn) | 3.50 (-1.124 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.319 (+0.006 vs szn) | 0.290 (-0.027 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.4% (-3.7% vs szn) | 22.6% (+1.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Phillies have been the better offense, 0.319 wOBA to 0.290.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 82-66 | 87-61 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.17 | +0.81 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.47 | 4.62 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.30 | 3.81 |
| Season OPS | 0.710 | 0.718 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.1% | 21.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.711 | 0.696 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Phillies and Braves are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.9/10, Normal | 7.0/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.7/10, Average | 6.4/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.1/10, Normal | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 18.3 | 25.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.91 | 2.49 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.20 | 1.03 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The current model and market total cannot be compared yet. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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