Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Sunday, October 18, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
1
OFFICIAL PICKS
1
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
0
PASSES
1
Updated Oct 18, 8:29 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
Get tomorrow's MLB model card free
One email, every morning. No payment required.
Get the organized member view
Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 -111
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.0/10
- Model probability
- 51.0%
- Market probability
- 54.0%
- Model vs market
- -3.0%
- Current price
- -121
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Tampa Bay Rays has the fresher bullpen, 5.4/10 versus 7.7/10. Cleveland Guardians has used 21.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.