Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Monday, September 21, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
3
OFFICIAL PICKS
2
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
0
PASSES
3
Updated Sep 21, 9:10 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
Get tomorrow's MLB model card free
One email, every morning. No payment required.
Get the organized member view
Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Trey Yesavage Over 3.5 +134
- Leo side
- Toronto Blue Jays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 60.3%
- Market probability
- 47.7%
- Model vs market
- +12.6%
- Current price
- +104
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Toronto Blue Jays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.4/10 versus 5.7/10, which adds late-game risk. Toronto Blue Jays has used 30.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 -108
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.5/10
- Model probability
- 55.6%
- Market probability
- 54.6%
- Model vs market
- +0.9%
- Current price
- -125
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Minnesota Twins is 7.0/10 and San Francisco Giants is 5.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.4/10
- Model probability
- 54.4%
- Market probability
- 59.6%
- Model vs market
- -5.3%
- Current price
- -158
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers has the fresher bullpen, 6.7/10 versus 9.3/10. Washington Nationals has used 24.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.