Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Thursday, September 3, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
9
OFFICIAL PICKS
5
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
3
PASSES
6
Updated Sep 3, 8:24 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
Get tomorrow's MLB model card free
One email, every morning. No payment required.
Get the organized member view
Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael Wacha Over 4.5 -125
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.1/10
- Model probability
- 58.2%
- Market probability
- 51.8%
- Model vs market
- +6.4%
- Current price
- -114
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Kansas City Royals has the fresher bullpen, 5.3/10 versus 7.9/10. Miami Marlins has used 25.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionKansas City Royals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 58.2% win probability, the market is at 51.8%, and the setup carries a 7.1/10 Lab Rating. Kansas City Royals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 4 rating points. Kansas City Royals has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.8/10 versus 8.0/10. Miami Marlins has 25.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Miami Marlins's pen has been average lately (4.8/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 6.0 points from 64.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 58.2%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jake Bennett Over 4.5 -135
Pitcher Ks: Brandon Young Under 4.5 -151
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.1/10
- Model probability
- 63.7%
- Market probability
- 52.2%
- Model vs market
- +11.5%
- Current price
- -112
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 8.1/10 and Baltimore Orioles is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBoston Red Sox is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 63.7% win probability, the market is at 52.2%, and the setup carries a 7.1/10 Lab Rating. Boston Red Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 9 rating points. Boston Red Sox carries the higher-risk bullpen, 9.6/10 versus 6.7/10. Recent context: 31.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Boston Red Sox's pen has been struggling lately (2.1/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 15.2 points from 78.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 63.7%.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.0/10
- Model probability
- 73.2%
- Market probability
- 71.1%
- Model vs market
- +2.1%
- Current price
- -265
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 35 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Dodgers has the fresher bullpen, 6.0/10 versus 10.0/10. St. Louis Cardinals has used 32.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionLos Angeles Dodgers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.2% win probability, the market is at 71.1%, and the setup carries a 7.0/10 Lab Rating. Los Angeles Dodgers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 35 rating points. Los Angeles Dodgers has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.9/10 versus 10.0/10. St. Louis Cardinals has 32.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 8 back-to-back arms. St. Louis Cardinals's pen has been below average lately (4.2/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.8 points from 96.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.2%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.0/10
- Model probability
- 51.2%
- Market probability
- 49.4%
- Model vs market
- +1.8%
- Current price
- +100
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Texas Rangers is 6.2/10 and Tampa Bay Rays is 7.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 +100
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 72.2%
- Market probability
- 53.1%
- Model vs market
- +19.1%
- Current price
- -120
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 10.0/10 versus 7.6/10, which adds late-game risk. Milwaukee Brewers has used 27.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- Leo side
- Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.2/10
- Model probability
- 68.6%
- Market probability
- 81.2%
- Model vs market
- -12.6%
- Current price
- -556
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Pittsburgh Pirates is 8.2/10 and San Francisco Giants is 8.9/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Pittsburgh Pirates is using a bullpen game. Lake Bachar is expected to cover about 2.3 innings, leaving roughly 6.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.0/10 risk with 5.5/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.5/10 for Pittsburgh Pirates versus 3.1/10 for San Francisco Giants.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pittsburgh Pirates is using a bullpen game. Lake Bachar is expected to cover about 2.3 innings, leaving roughly 6.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.0/10 risk with 5.5/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.5/10 for Pittsburgh Pirates versus 3.1/10 for San Francisco Giants.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Tanner Bibee Under 4.5 +140
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.7/10
- Model probability
- 53.9%
- Market probability
- 52.0%
- Model vs market
- +1.9%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cleveland Guardians is 5.0/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 6.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.1/10
- Model probability
- 69.2%
- Market probability
- 59.9%
- Model vs market
- +9.2%
- Current price
- -157
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 6.7/10 and Chicago White Sox is 5.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.4/10
- Model probability
- 62.4%
- Market probability
- 65.8%
- Model vs market
- -3.4%
- Current price
- -209
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Seattle Mariners is 7.7/10 and Athletics is 6.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.