Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Wednesday, August 26, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
15
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
1
PASSES
10
Updated Aug 26, 8:58 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins
Official markets
Moneyline: Boston Red Sox -154
Pitcher Ks: Ryan Gusto Under 3.5 +117
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.4/10
- Model probability
- 70.7%
- Market probability
- 54.4%
- Model vs market
- +16.3%
- Current price
- -122
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Boston Red Sox has the fresher bullpen, 7.6/10 versus 10.0/10. Miami Marlins has used 23.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBoston Red Sox is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 70.7% chance to win, compared with the market's 54.4% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.4/10 Lab Rating. Boston Red Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 16 rating points. Boston Red Sox has the lower-risk bullpen, 6.8/10 versus 9.9/10. Miami Marlins has 23.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Miami Marlins's pen has been average lately (5.3/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 20.0 points from 90.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.7%. At -122, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels
Official markets
Moneyline: Cleveland Guardians -136
Pitcher Ks: Grayson Rodriguez Under 4.5 -156
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.0/10
- Model probability
- 73.1%
- Market probability
- 56.5%
- Model vs market
- +16.6%
- Current price
- -135
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Cleveland Guardians is 9.9/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 8.2/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionCleveland Guardians is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 73.1% chance to win, compared with the market's 56.5% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.0/10 Lab Rating. Cleveland Guardians has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 22 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Cleveland Guardians is 9.1/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 7.6/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.2 points from 96.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.1%. At -135, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants
Official markets
Moneyline: San Francisco Giants -115
- Leo side
- San Francisco Giants Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.2/10
- Model probability
- 71.8%
- Market probability
- 52.7%
- Model vs market
- +19.1%
- Current price
- -115
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 21 points
- Bullpen read
- San Francisco Giants carries the heavier bullpen workload, 10.0/10 versus 6.3/10, which adds late-game risk. San Francisco Giants has used 39.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionSan Francisco Giants is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 71.8% chance to win, compared with the market's 52.7% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.2/10 Lab Rating. San Francisco Giants has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 21 rating points. San Francisco Giants carries the higher-risk bullpen, 9.0/10 versus 6.1/10. Recent context: 39.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. San Francisco Giants's pen has been effective lately (7.0/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.3 points from 94.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 71.8%. At -115, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Moneyline: Chicago White Sox -119
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.2/10
- Model probability
- 66.6%
- Market probability
- 53.2%
- Model vs market
- +13.4%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago White Sox is 8.7/10 and Texas Rangers is 7.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionChicago White Sox is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 66.6% chance to win, compared with the market's 53.2% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.2/10 Lab Rating. Chicago White Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 10 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Chicago White Sox is 8.5/10 and Texas Rangers is 7.2/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 17.2 points from 83.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 66.6%. At -118, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.5/10
- Model probability
- 72.3%
- Market probability
- 52.6%
- Model vs market
- +19.7%
- Current price
- -114
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 28 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 7.1/10 and Tampa Bay Rays is 7.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionDetroit Tigers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 72.3% win probability, the market is at 52.6%, and the setup carries a 6.5/10 Lab Rating. Detroit Tigers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 28 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 7.6/10 and Tampa Bay Rays is 6.8/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.4 points from 94.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.3%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Official markets
Moneyline: Los Angeles Dodgers -122
Pitcher Ks: Roki Sasaki Over 4.5 -164
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 72.1%
- Market probability
- 48.4%
- Model vs market
- +23.6%
- Current price
- +101
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 27 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1/10, Atlanta Braves 5.3/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
- Leo side
- Toronto Blue Jays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.0/10
- Model probability
- 67.0%
- Market probability
- 49.5%
- Model vs market
- +17.5%
- Current price
- -102
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Toronto Blue Jays is 5.6/10 and Kansas City Royals is 6.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Toronto Blue Jays is using a bullpen game. Spencer Miles is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.4/10 risk with 5.4/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.4/10 for Toronto Blue Jays versus 4.6/10 for Kansas City Royals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Toronto Blue Jays is using a bullpen game. Spencer Miles is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.4/10 risk with 5.4/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.4/10 for Toronto Blue Jays versus 4.6/10 for Kansas City Royals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Elmer Rodríguez Under 3.5 +106
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.8/10
- Model probability
- 71.8%
- Market probability
- 42.1%
- Model vs market
- +29.7%
- Current price
- +131
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 29 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 7.2/10 and New York Yankees is 6.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 57.2%
- Market probability
- 55.5%
- Model vs market
- +1.7%
- Current price
- -128
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- San Diego Padres has the fresher bullpen, 7.7/10 versus 10.0/10. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 31.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Minnesota Twins @ Athletics
- Leo side
- Athletics Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 66.7%
- Market probability
- 44.3%
- Model vs market
- +22.4%
- Current price
- +123
- Pitcher edge
- Athletics by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- Athletics carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.6/10 versus 3.9/10, which adds late-game risk. Athletics has used 28.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jesús Luzardo Over 7.5 -103
Pitcher Ks: Bryan Woo Under 5.5 -153
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 58.2%
- Market probability
- 54.8%
- Model vs market
- +3.4%
- Current price
- -125
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Philadelphia Phillies 5.0/10, Seattle Mariners 5.7/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Dustin May Over 4.5 -121
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 72.4%
- Market probability
- 66.0%
- Model vs market
- +6.4%
- Current price
- -200
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 6.9/10 and New York Mets is 6.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.4/10
- Model probability
- 67.2%
- Market probability
- 49.6%
- Model vs market
- +17.5%
- Current price
- -102
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.9/10 and Chicago Cubs is 6.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Tanner Gordon Over 3.5 -118
- Leo side
- Colorado Rockies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.3/10
- Model probability
- 70.9%
- Market probability
- 48.6%
- Model vs market
- +22.3%
- Current price
- +100
- Pitcher edge
- Colorado Rockies by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Colorado Rockies is 6.9/10 and Washington Nationals is 6.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Matt Waldron is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.4/10 risk with 5.7/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Colorado Rockies. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.7/10 for Colorado Rockies versus 5.7/10 for Washington Nationals.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Matt Waldron is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.4/10 risk with 5.7/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Colorado Rockies. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.7/10 for Colorado Rockies versus 5.7/10 for Washington Nationals.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kyle Bradish Over 4.5 -106
Pitcher Ks: Michael McGreevy Over 4.5 +120
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.2/10
- Model probability
- 55.4%
- Market probability
- 48.1%
- Model vs market
- +7.3%
- Current price
- +100
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. St. Louis Cardinals is 6.4/10 and Baltimore Orioles is 5.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.