Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Tuesday, August 25, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
14
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
0
PASSES
14
Updated Aug 25, 7:50 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins
Official markets
Moneyline: Boston Red Sox -153
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.0/10
- Model probability
- 70.0%
- Market probability
- 59.0%
- Model vs market
- +10.9%
- Current price
- -153
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- Boston Red Sox has the fresher bullpen, 6.3/10 versus 8.0/10. Miami Marlins has used 25.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBoston Red Sox is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 70.0% chance to win, compared with the market's 59.0% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.0/10 Lab Rating. Boston Red Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 15 rating points. Boston Red Sox has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.6/10 versus 8.2/10. Miami Marlins has 25.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Miami Marlins's pen has been average lately (4.7/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 19.2 points from 89.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.0%. At -153, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Minnesota Twins @ Athletics
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.4/10
- Model probability
- 72.0%
- Market probability
- 55.9%
- Model vs market
- +16.1%
- Current price
- -133
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Minnesota Twins has the fresher bullpen, 4.6/10 versus 9.1/10. Athletics has used 32.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Tyler Glasnow Over 5.5 -160
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.9/10
- Model probability
- 63.8%
- Market probability
- 53.9%
- Model vs market
- +9.9%
- Current price
- -122
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Los Angeles Dodgers 5.4/10, Atlanta Braves 5.6/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 52.8%
- Market probability
- 53.7%
- Model vs market
- -0.9%
- Current price
- -126
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. San Diego Padres is 7.8/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 9.2/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Chris Bassitt Under 3.5 +104
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.6/10
- Model probability
- 62.2%
- Market probability
- 50.0%
- Model vs market
- +12.2%
- Current price
- -108
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. St. Louis Cardinals is 5.9/10 and Baltimore Orioles is 6.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Gavin Williams Over 8.5 +116
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 57.0%
- Market probability
- 56.2%
- Model vs market
- +0.8%
- Current price
- -136
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cleveland Guardians is 6.0/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 6.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 57.3%
- Market probability
- 49.7%
- Model vs market
- +7.6%
- Current price
- -102
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Chicago Cubs is 8.0/10 and Arizona Diamondbacks is 8.3/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kyle Harrison Under 5.5 +120
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.3/10
- Model probability
- 63.4%
- Market probability
- 58.9%
- Model vs market
- +4.5%
- Current price
- -154
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 7.1/10 and New York Mets is 6.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Adrian Houser Over 3.5 -140
- Leo side
- San Francisco Giants Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.2/10
- Model probability
- 56.7%
- Market probability
- 50.6%
- Model vs market
- +6.1%
- Current price
- -108
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. San Francisco Giants is 7.7/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 6.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 -108
Pitcher Ks: Anthony Kay Over 4.5 -120
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.6/10
- Model probability
- 64.4%
- Market probability
- 44.9%
- Model vs market
- +19.5%
- Current price
- +118
- Pitcher edge
- Texas Rangers by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Texas Rangers has the fresher bullpen, 6.7/10 versus 9.6/10. Chicago White Sox has used 45.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jackson Jobe Under 3.5 -132
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.6/10
- Model probability
- 54.7%
- Market probability
- 47.9%
- Model vs market
- +6.8%
- Current price
- +104
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 6.8/10 and Detroit Tigers is 6.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Tampa Bay Rays is using a bullpen game. Casey Legumina is expected to cover about 1.7 innings, leaving roughly 7.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.6/10 risk with 5.5/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.5/10 for Tampa Bay Rays versus 3.4/10 for Detroit Tigers.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Tampa Bay Rays is using a bullpen game. Casey Legumina is expected to cover about 1.7 innings, leaving roughly 7.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.6/10 risk with 5.5/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.5/10 for Tampa Bay Rays versus 3.4/10 for Detroit Tigers.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Official markets
Moneyline: Kansas City Royals +116
Pitcher Ks: Max Scherzer Under 3.5 +120
- Leo side
- Toronto Blue Jays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.3/10
- Model probability
- 55.9%
- Market probability
- 55.2%
- Model vs market
- +0.7%
- Current price
- -127
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Toronto Blue Jays is 5.5/10 and Kansas City Royals is 6.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.1/10
- Model probability
- 52.7%
- Market probability
- 57.0%
- Model vs market
- -4.3%
- Current price
- -138
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 6.5/10 and Houston Astros is 7.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Houston Astros is using a bullpen game. Ethan Pecko is expected to cover about 2.8 innings, leaving roughly 6.2 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.7/10 risk with 4.3/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Yankees. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.4/10 for New York Yankees versus 4.3/10 for Houston Astros.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Houston Astros is using a bullpen game. Ethan Pecko is expected to cover about 2.8 innings, leaving roughly 6.2 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.7/10 risk with 4.3/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Yankees. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.4/10 for New York Yankees versus 4.3/10 for Houston Astros.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Andrew Alvarez Over 4.5 -130
- Leo side
- Colorado Rockies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.0/10
- Model probability
- 55.3%
- Market probability
- 41.7%
- Model vs market
- +13.7%
- Current price
- +137
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Colorado Rockies is 6.7/10 and Washington Nationals is 5.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Aaron Nola Over 5.5 -120
Pitcher Ks: George Kirby Under 4.5 +100
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.0/10
- Model probability
- 61.0%
- Market probability
- 46.1%
- Model vs market
- +14.9%
- Current price
- +111
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Seattle Mariners is 7.2/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 5.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.