Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Monday, August 24, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
10
OFFICIAL PICKS
13
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
3
PASSES
6
Updated Aug 24, 9:07 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels
Official markets
Moneyline: Cleveland Guardians -156
Pitcher Ks: Parker Messick Over 7.5 +117
Pitcher Ks: George Klassen Under 4.5 -147
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.2/10
- Model probability
- 72.8%
- Market probability
- 55.6%
- Model vs market
- +17.3%
- Current price
- -130
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 32 points
- Bullpen read
- Cleveland Guardians carries the heavier bullpen workload, 6.6/10 versus 4.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Cleveland Guardians has used 20.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionCleveland Guardians is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 72.8% chance to win, compared with the market's 55.6% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.2/10 Lab Rating. Cleveland Guardians has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 32 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Cleveland Guardians 5.1/10, Los Angeles Angels 3.7/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.0 points from 95.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.8%. At -130, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 -160
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.1/10
- Model probability
- 72.9%
- Market probability
- 54.6%
- Model vs market
- +18.3%
- Current price
- -126
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 7.4/10 and Detroit Tigers is 6.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionTampa Bay Rays is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 72.9% win probability, the market is at 54.6%, and the setup carries a 7.1/10 Lab Rating. Tampa Bay Rays has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 22 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 7.5/10 and Detroit Tigers is 7.5/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.8 points from 95.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.9%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 -140
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.8/10
- Model probability
- 59.1%
- Market probability
- 48.0%
- Model vs market
- +11.0%
- Current price
- +104
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Philadelphia Phillies has the fresher bullpen, 4.7/10 versus 7.7/10. Seattle Mariners has used 24.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionPhiladelphia Phillies is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 59.1% win probability, the market is at 48.0%, and the setup carries a 6.8/10 Lab Rating. Philadelphia Phillies has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 4 rating points. Philadelphia Phillies has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.4/10 versus 9.6/10. Seattle Mariners has 24.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 5 back-to-back arms. Seattle Mariners's pen has been struggling lately (1.2/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 5.7 points from 64.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 59.1%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Cade Cavalli Over 6.5 +105
- Leo side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.7/10
- Model probability
- 71.9%
- Market probability
- 66.0%
- Model vs market
- +5.9%
- Current price
- -182
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 31 points
- Bullpen read
- Washington Nationals has the fresher bullpen, 6.2/10 versus 8.1/10. Colorado Rockies has used 28.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionWashington Nationals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 71.9% win probability, the market is at 66.0%, and the setup carries a 6.7/10 Lab Rating. Washington Nationals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 31 rating points. Washington Nationals has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.9/10 versus 8.0/10. Colorado Rockies has 28.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 5 back-to-back arms. Colorado Rockies's pen has been average lately (5.3/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.5 points from 93.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 71.9%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Carson Whisenhunt Over 4.5 +105
- Leo side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.4/10
- Model probability
- 73.5%
- Market probability
- 49.4%
- Model vs market
- +24.1%
- Current price
- -102
- Pitcher edge
- Cincinnati Reds by 53 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cincinnati Reds is 6.3/10 and San Francisco Giants is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kevin Gausman Under 4.5 -105
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.3/10
- Model probability
- 69.3%
- Market probability
- 50.3%
- Model vs market
- +19.0%
- Current price
- -106
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Chicago Cubs is 9.1/10 and Arizona Diamondbacks is 8.5/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Minnesota Twins @ Athletics
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jeffrey Springs Under 3.5 +115
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.0/10
- Model probability
- 69.9%
- Market probability
- 57.7%
- Model vs market
- +12.2%
- Current price
- -145
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Minnesota Twins has the fresher bullpen, 5.3/10 versus 10.0/10. Athletics has used 33.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.5/10
- Model probability
- 51.7%
- Market probability
- 51.7%
- Model vs market
- +0.0%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Boston Red Sox has the fresher bullpen, 5.3/10 versus 8.9/10. Miami Marlins has used 26.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 -128
Pitcher Ks: Jose Urquidy Over 3.5 -143
Pitcher Ks: José Urquidy Over 3.5 -143
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.8/10
- Model probability
- 72.1%
- Market probability
- 51.3%
- Model vs market
- +20.8%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- Texas Rangers by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Texas Rangers has the fresher bullpen, 7.4/10 versus 9.9/10. Chicago White Sox has used 43.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Chicago White Sox is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is José Urquidy for about 5.0 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 4.0 innings. The pen carries 9.4/10 risk with 6.1/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Texas Rangers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.3/10 for Texas Rangers versus 6.1/10 for Chicago White Sox.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago White Sox is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is José Urquidy for about 5.0 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 4.0 innings. The pen carries 9.4/10 risk with 6.1/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Texas Rangers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.3/10 for Texas Rangers versus 6.1/10 for Chicago White Sox.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Robbie Ray Over 5.5 -114
- Leo side
- Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 1.0/10
- Model probability
- 56.0%
- Market probability
- 48.7%
- Model vs market
- +7.3%
- Current price
- +102
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Pittsburgh Pirates carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.3/10 versus 5.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 29.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.