Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Saturday, August 22, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
12
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
1
WATCHLIST
5
PASSES
7
Updated Aug 22, 5:47 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Official markets
Moneyline: Arizona Diamondbacks -171
Pitcher Ks: Rhett Lowder Under 3.5 -115
Pitcher Ks: Michael Soroka Over 5.5 -150
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 9.3/10
- Model probability
- 74.2%
- Market probability
- 54.6%
- Model vs market
- +19.6%
- Current price
- -126
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 26 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.0/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 7.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionArizona Diamondbacks is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 74.2% chance to win, compared with the market's 54.6% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 9.3/10 Lab Rating. Arizona Diamondbacks has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 26 rating points. Arizona Diamondbacks has the lower-risk bullpen, 6.4/10 versus 8.1/10. Cincinnati Reds has 28.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 5 back-to-back arms. Cincinnati Reds's pen has been below average lately (3.4/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.1 points from 98.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.2%. At -126, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres
Official markets
Moneyline: San Diego Padres -156
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.1/10
- Model probability
- 74.2%
- Market probability
- 55.8%
- Model vs market
- +18.4%
- Current price
- -134
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- San Diego Padres has the fresher bullpen, 4.0/10 versus 6.2/10. Minnesota Twins has used 21.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionSan Diego Padres is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 74.2% chance to win, compared with the market's 55.8% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.1/10 Lab Rating. San Diego Padres has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 19 rating points. San Diego Padres has the lower-risk bullpen, 3.9/10 versus 5.7/10. Minnesota Twins has 21.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Minnesota Twins's pen has been effective lately (6.0/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.1 points from 98.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.2%. At -134, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jake Irvin Over 2.5 -105
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.8/10
- Model probability
- 74.2%
- Market probability
- 59.3%
- Model vs market
- +14.9%
- Current price
- -155
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 26 points
- Bullpen read
- Miami Marlins has the fresher bullpen, 6.5/10 versus 8.3/10. Washington Nationals has used 26.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionMiami Marlins grades as a strong value setup with 74.2% model win probability against a 59.3% market number and a 7.8/10 Lab Rating. Miami Marlins has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 26 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Miami Marlins is 6.7/10 and Washington Nationals is 8.1/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.2 points from 98.4% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.2%. It stayed a value watch because Lab Rating is 7.8/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.2/10
- Model probability
- 74.5%
- Market probability
- 71.4%
- Model vs market
- +3.0%
- Current price
- -290
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 21 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 6.7/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 7.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionLos Angeles Dodgers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 74.5% win probability, the market is at 71.4%, and the setup carries a 7.2/10 Lab Rating. Los Angeles Dodgers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 21 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 6.8/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 7.0/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.4 points from 98.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.5%.
Risk notePrimary caution: limited sportsbook sample. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Dylan Cease Over 8.5 -115
Pitcher Ks: Ryan Weathers Under 5.5 -128
- Leo side
- Toronto Blue Jays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.1/10
- Model probability
- 69.5%
- Market probability
- 44.1%
- Model vs market
- +25.4%
- Current price
- +124
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Toronto Blue Jays is 7.8/10 and New York Yankees is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionToronto Blue Jays is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 69.5% win probability, the market is at 44.1%, and the setup carries a 7.1/10 Lab Rating. Toronto Blue Jays has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 12 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Toronto Blue Jays is 7.0/10 and New York Yankees is 6.0/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 19.8 points from 89.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 69.5%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 71.4%
- Market probability
- 55.0%
- Model vs market
- +16.4%
- Current price
- -129
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.9/10 versus 5.1/10, which adds late-game risk. Milwaukee Brewers has used 26.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionMilwaukee Brewers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 71.4% win probability, the market is at 55.0%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. Milwaukee Brewers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 10 rating points. Milwaukee Brewers carries the higher-risk bullpen, 7.6/10 versus 5.1/10. Recent context: 26.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Milwaukee Brewers's pen has been effective lately (5.7/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.9 points from 93.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 71.4%.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.8/10
- Model probability
- 74.4%
- Market probability
- 60.4%
- Model vs market
- +14.0%
- Current price
- -164
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 26 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cleveland Guardians is 7.8/10 and Colorado Rockies is 6.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionCleveland Guardians is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 74.4% win probability, the market is at 60.4%, and the setup carries a 6.8/10 Lab Rating. Cleveland Guardians has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 26 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Cleveland Guardians is 6.5/10 and Colorado Rockies is 6.7/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.4 points from 98.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.4%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Christian Scott Over 5.5 -145
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.5/10
- Model probability
- 70.1%
- Market probability
- 48.6%
- Model vs market
- +21.4%
- Current price
- +103
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Mets has the fresher bullpen, 5.3/10 versus 8.4/10. Chicago White Sox has used 36.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 9 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Mets is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 70.1% win probability, the market is at 48.6%, and the setup carries a 6.5/10 Lab Rating. New York Mets has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 12 rating points. New York Mets has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.4/10 versus 7.5/10. Chicago White Sox has 36.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 9 back-to-back arms. Chicago White Sox's pen has been effective lately (6.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 19.2 points from 89.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.1%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Ryan Johnson Over 3.5 -149
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.4/10
- Model probability
- 73.8%
- Market probability
- 60.9%
- Model vs market
- +13.0%
- Current price
- -163
- Pitcher edge
- Texas Rangers by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Texas Rangers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.2/10 versus 4.6/10, which adds late-game risk. Texas Rangers has used 20.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Athletics @ Houston Astros
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.4/10
- Model probability
- 72.3%
- Market probability
- 68.5%
- Model vs market
- +3.9%
- Current price
- -225
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 7.2/10 and Athletics is 6.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.8/10
- Model probability
- 67.0%
- Market probability
- 51.3%
- Model vs market
- +15.7%
- Current price
- -108
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Tampa Bay Rays 5.3/10, Baltimore Orioles 5.7/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.8/10
- Model probability
- 72.3%
- Market probability
- 34.4%
- Model vs market
- +37.9%
- Current price
- +184
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. St. Louis Cardinals is 7.2/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 6.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Drew Anderson Under 4.5 -160
Pitcher Ks: Michael Wacha Under 4.5 -151
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.7/10
- Model probability
- 63.2%
- Market probability
- 50.0%
- Model vs market
- +13.2%
- Current price
- -104
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Kansas City Royals carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.3/10 versus 4.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Kansas City Royals has used 23.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox
- Leo side
- San Francisco Giants Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.2/10
- Model probability
- 71.6%
- Market probability
- 34.5%
- Model vs market
- +37.0%
- Current price
- +184
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. San Francisco Giants is 7.1/10 and Boston Red Sox is 6.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: David Peterson Under 4.5 -133
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 1.2/10
- Model probability
- 50.9%
- Market probability
- 49.6%
- Model vs market
- +1.2%
- Current price
- -104
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Seattle Mariners is 6.7/10 and Chicago Cubs is 6.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Seattle Mariners is using a bullpen game. Kade Anderson is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.4/10 risk with 1.6/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 1.6/10 for Seattle Mariners versus 5.5/10 for Chicago Cubs.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Seattle Mariners is using a bullpen game. Kade Anderson is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.4/10 risk with 1.6/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 1.6/10 for Seattle Mariners versus 5.5/10 for Chicago Cubs.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.