Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Friday, August 21, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
13
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
7
PASSES
7
Updated Aug 21, 7:51 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Official markets
Moneyline: Arizona Diamondbacks -142
Pitcher Ks: Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 +126
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.7/10
- Model probability
- 73.7%
- Market probability
- 59.9%
- Model vs market
- +13.9%
- Current price
- -155
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.5/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 6.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionArizona Diamondbacks is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 73.7% chance to win, compared with the market's 59.9% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.7/10 Lab Rating. Arizona Diamondbacks has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 18 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 7.1/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 7.0/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.7 points from 97.4% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.7%. At -155, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Noah Cameron Under 5.5 -137
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.4/10
- Model probability
- 72.8%
- Market probability
- 49.4%
- Model vs market
- +23.4%
- Current price
- +100
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers has the fresher bullpen, 5.3/10 versus 7.2/10. Kansas City Royals has used 23.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionDetroit Tigers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 72.8% win probability, the market is at 49.4%, and the setup carries a 7.4/10 Lab Rating. Detroit Tigers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 15 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 5.4/10 and Kansas City Royals is 6.8/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.6 points from 95.4% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.8%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.4/10
- Model probability
- 74.5%
- Market probability
- 69.5%
- Model vs market
- +4.9%
- Current price
- -250
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 7.3/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 6.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionLos Angeles Dodgers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 74.5% win probability, the market is at 69.5%, and the setup carries a 7.4/10 Lab Rating. Los Angeles Dodgers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 22 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 7.1/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 7.0/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.5 points from 98.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.5%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.3/10
- Model probability
- 72.5%
- Market probability
- 54.5%
- Model vs market
- +18.0%
- Current price
- -130
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Philadelphia Phillies is 5.9/10 and St. Louis Cardinals is 7.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionPhiladelphia Phillies is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 72.5% win probability, the market is at 54.5%, and the setup carries a 7.3/10 Lab Rating. Philadelphia Phillies has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 13 rating points. Philadelphia Phillies has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.4/10 versus 7.1/10. St. Louis Cardinals has 27.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. St. Louis Cardinals's pen has been average lately (5.0/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.3 points from 94.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.5%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Athletics @ Houston Astros
- Leo side
- Athletics Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.2/10
- Model probability
- 73.7%
- Market probability
- 32.0%
- Model vs market
- +41.8%
- Current price
- +210
- Pitcher edge
- Athletics by 17 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Athletics is 7.8/10 and Houston Astros is 7.8/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionAthletics is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.7% win probability, the market is at 32.0%, and the setup carries a 7.2/10 Lab Rating. Athletics has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 17 rating points. Both bullpens carry high risk. Athletics is 8.2/10 and Houston Astros is 8.5/10, so the late innings carry meaningful volatility on both sides. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.7 points from 97.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.7%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
- Leo side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 73.2%
- Market probability
- 37.7%
- Model vs market
- +35.5%
- Current price
- +158
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 17 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Washington Nationals is 5.2/10 and Miami Marlins is 6.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Brad Lord is expected to cover about 1.9 innings, leaving roughly 7.1 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.0/10 risk with 5.5/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.5/10 for Washington Nationals versus 4.5/10 for Miami Marlins.
Washington Nationals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.2% win probability, the market is at 37.7%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. Washington Nationals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 17 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Washington Nationals is 5.0/10 and Miami Marlins is 6.4/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.1 points from 96.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.2%.
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Brad Lord is expected to cover about 1.9 innings, leaving roughly 7.1 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.0/10 risk with 5.5/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.5/10 for Washington Nationals versus 4.5/10 for Miami Marlins.
Washington Nationals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.2% win probability, the market is at 37.7%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. Washington Nationals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 17 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Washington Nationals is 5.0/10 and Miami Marlins is 6.4/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.1 points from 96.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.2%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.7/10
- Model probability
- 66.1%
- Market probability
- 60.0%
- Model vs market
- +6.0%
- Current price
- -156
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- San Diego Padres has the fresher bullpen, 4.4/10 versus 7.6/10. Minnesota Twins has used 19.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionSan Diego Padres is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 66.1% win probability, the market is at 60.0%, and the setup carries a 6.7/10 Lab Rating. San Diego Padres has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 6 rating points. San Diego Padres has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.5/10 versus 7.2/10. Minnesota Twins has 19.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Minnesota Twins's pen has been effective lately (5.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 14.9 points from 81.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 66.1%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: MacKenzie Gore Over 6.5 -150
Pitcher Ks: Reid Detmers Over 6.5 +105
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Angels Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.6/10
- Model probability
- 70.2%
- Market probability
- 43.8%
- Model vs market
- +26.4%
- Current price
- +126
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Angels by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Los Angeles Angels 4.3/10, Texas Rangers 5.6/10).
Why Leo made this decisionLos Angeles Angels is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 70.2% win probability, the market is at 43.8%, and the setup carries a 6.6/10 Lab Rating. Los Angeles Angels has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 10 rating points. Los Angeles Angels has the lower-risk bullpen, 3.9/10 versus 6.0/10. Texas Rangers has 19.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Texas Rangers's pen has been below average lately (4.2/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 19.6 points from 89.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.2%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Sonny Gray Under 5.5 -116
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.4/10
- Model probability
- 59.9%
- Market probability
- 65.4%
- Model vs market
- -5.5%
- Current price
- -200
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 7.8/10 and San Francisco Giants is 6.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Trevor Rogers Under 4.5 -110
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.3/10
- Model probability
- 71.0%
- Market probability
- 45.7%
- Model vs market
- +25.3%
- Current price
- +118
- Pitcher edge
- Baltimore Orioles by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Baltimore Orioles is 6.8/10 and Tampa Bay Rays is 6.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Tanner Gordon Under 3.5 -162
Pitcher Ks: Joey Cantillo Over 5.5 -115
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.8/10
- Model probability
- 71.4%
- Market probability
- 56.1%
- Model vs market
- +15.2%
- Current price
- -135
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cleveland Guardians is 7.4/10 and Colorado Rockies is 7.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 62.2%
- Market probability
- 59.9%
- Model vs market
- +2.3%
- Current price
- -160
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.3/10 versus 6.0/10, which adds late-game risk. Milwaukee Brewers has used 25.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Sean Manaea Over 5.5 -132
Pitcher Ks: Sean Burke Over 6.5 +112
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.2/10
- Model probability
- 70.9%
- Market probability
- 51.6%
- Model vs market
- +19.3%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago White Sox carries the heavier bullpen workload, 10.0/10 versus 5.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Chicago White Sox has used 42.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 9 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Matthew Boyd Under 4.5 +110
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.7/10
- Model probability
- 67.8%
- Market probability
- 51.8%
- Model vs market
- +16.0%
- Current price
- -112
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Seattle Mariners is 6.8/10 and Chicago Cubs is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 -111
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.7/10
- Model probability
- 57.5%
- Market probability
- 52.4%
- Model vs market
- +5.1%
- Current price
- -116
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Yankees carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.0/10 versus 6.2/10, which adds late-game risk. New York Yankees has used 20.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Toronto Blue Jays is using a bullpen game. Mason Fluharty is expected to cover about 1.1 innings, leaving roughly 7.9 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.1/10 risk with 7.3/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Yankees. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.6/10 for New York Yankees versus 7.3/10 for Toronto Blue Jays.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Toronto Blue Jays is using a bullpen game. Mason Fluharty is expected to cover about 1.1 innings, leaving roughly 7.9 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.1/10 risk with 7.3/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Yankees. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.6/10 for New York Yankees versus 7.3/10 for Toronto Blue Jays.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.