Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Thursday, August 20, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
9
OFFICIAL PICKS
8
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
2
WATCHLIST
3
PASSES
4
Updated Aug 20, 7:52 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Official markets
Moneyline: Tampa Bay Rays -159
Pitcher Ks: Ian Seymour Under 5.5 -134
Pitcher Ks: Shane Bieber Under 3.5 +110
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.6/10
- Model probability
- 74.2%
- Market probability
- 60.1%
- Model vs market
- +14.1%
- Current price
- -158
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 7.2/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 7.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionTampa Bay Rays grades as a strong value setup with 74.2% model win probability against a 60.1% market number and a 7.6/10 Lab Rating. Tampa Bay Rays has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 23 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 8.1/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 7.1/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.2 points from 98.4% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.2%. It stayed a value watch because Lab Rating is 7.6/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Landen Roupp Under 4.5 -139
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.5/10
- Model probability
- 70.4%
- Market probability
- 65.2%
- Model vs market
- +5.3%
- Current price
- -196
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Cleveland Guardians has the fresher bullpen, 5.0/10 versus 7.9/10. San Francisco Giants has used 24.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionCleveland Guardians grades as a strong value setup with 70.4% model win probability against a 65.2% market number and a 7.5/10 Lab Rating. Cleveland Guardians has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 12 rating points. Cleveland Guardians has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.2/10 versus 7.5/10. San Francisco Giants has 24.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. San Francisco Giants's pen has been effective lately (5.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 19.6 points from 90.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.4%. It stayed a value watch because Lab Rating is 7.5/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael McGreevy Over 4.5 +100
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.4/10
- Model probability
- 72.0%
- Market probability
- 52.6%
- Model vs market
- +19.4%
- Current price
- -104
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. St. Louis Cardinals is 7.7/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 6.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionSt. Louis Cardinals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 72.0% win probability, the market is at 52.6%, and the setup carries a 7.4/10 Lab Rating. St. Louis Cardinals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 12 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. St. Louis Cardinals is 7.0/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 7.0/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.0 points from 94.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.0%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.4/10
- Model probability
- 73.8%
- Market probability
- 62.6%
- Model vs market
- +11.2%
- Current price
- -176
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 38 points
- Bullpen read
- Houston Astros carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.7/10 versus 4.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Houston Astros has used 24.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionHouston Astros is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.8% win probability, the market is at 62.6%, and the setup carries a 7.4/10 Lab Rating. Houston Astros has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 38 rating points. Houston Astros carries the higher-risk bullpen, 7.7/10 versus 4.1/10. Recent context: 24.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 4 back-to-back arms. Houston Astros's pen has been average lately (5.0/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.0 points from 97.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.8%.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.7/10
- Model probability
- 71.0%
- Market probability
- 55.5%
- Model vs market
- +15.4%
- Current price
- -128
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Kansas City Royals is 6.0/10 and Athletics is 7.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionKansas City Royals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 71.0% win probability, the market is at 55.5%, and the setup carries a 6.7/10 Lab Rating. Kansas City Royals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 12 rating points. Kansas City Royals has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.6/10 versus 8.0/10. Athletics has 23.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 4 back-to-back arms. Athletics's pen has been below average lately (4.0/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 20.4 points from 91.4% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 71.0%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 -122
Pitcher Ks: Kyle Bradish Over 5.5 -138
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.3/10
- Model probability
- 70.0%
- Market probability
- 50.9%
- Model vs market
- +19.1%
- Current price
- -106
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Yankees carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.5/10 versus 6.5/10, which adds late-game risk. New York Yankees has used 21.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.4/10
- Model probability
- 62.0%
- Market probability
- 61.1%
- Model vs market
- +0.9%
- Current price
- -163
- Pitcher edge
- Texas Rangers by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Texas Rangers is 6.1/10 and Washington Nationals is 5.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Robert Gasser Under 5.5 -144
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.3/10
- Model probability
- 55.3%
- Market probability
- 44.5%
- Model vs market
- +10.7%
- Current price
- +121
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Seattle Mariners has the fresher bullpen, 5.6/10 versus 8.5/10. Milwaukee Brewers has used 23.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.1/10
- Model probability
- 50.7%
- Market probability
- 50.0%
- Model vs market
- +0.7%
- Current price
- -102
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge
- Bullpen read
- Chicago White Sox carries the heavier bullpen workload, 10.0/10 versus 5.5/10, which adds late-game risk. Chicago White Sox has used 48.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 9 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.