Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Wednesday, August 19, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
16
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
1
WATCHLIST
3
PASSES
10
Updated Aug 19, 7:49 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
Get tomorrow's MLB model card free
One email, every morning. No payment required.
Get the organized member view
Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Official markets
Moneyline: Tampa Bay Rays -170
Pitcher Ks: Max Scherzer Under 3.5 -113
Pitcher Ks: Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 +115
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.3/10
- Model probability
- 74.3%
- Market probability
- 60.6%
- Model vs market
- +13.7%
- Current price
- -165
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 42 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 7.8/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 7.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionTampa Bay Rays is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 74.3% chance to win, compared with the market's 60.6% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.3/10 Lab Rating. Tampa Bay Rays has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 42 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 8.8/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 7.4/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.3 points from 98.6% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.3%. At -165, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.2/10
- Model probability
- 73.9%
- Market probability
- 63.0%
- Model vs market
- +10.9%
- Current price
- -180
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 27 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Cleveland Guardians 5.7/10, San Francisco Giants 5.8/10).
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
San Francisco Giants is using a bullpen game. Matt Wilkinson is expected to cover about 2.0 innings, leaving roughly 7.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.9/10 risk with 4.9/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Cleveland Guardians. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.3/10 for Cleveland Guardians versus 4.9/10 for San Francisco Giants.
Cleveland Guardians grades as a strong value setup with 73.9% model win probability against a 63.0% market number and a 8.2/10 Lab Rating. Cleveland Guardians has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 27 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Cleveland Guardians 5.1/10, San Francisco Giants 5.9/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.9 points from 97.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.9%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review.
San Francisco Giants is using a bullpen game. Matt Wilkinson is expected to cover about 2.0 innings, leaving roughly 7.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.9/10 risk with 4.9/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Cleveland Guardians. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.3/10 for Cleveland Guardians versus 4.9/10 for San Francisco Giants.
Cleveland Guardians grades as a strong value setup with 73.9% model win probability against a 63.0% market number and a 8.2/10 Lab Rating. Cleveland Guardians has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 27 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Cleveland Guardians 5.1/10, San Francisco Giants 5.9/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.9 points from 97.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.9%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael King Over 4.5 -148
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.4/10
- Model probability
- 74.1%
- Market probability
- 34.1%
- Model vs market
- +39.9%
- Current price
- +196
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 30 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. San Diego Padres is 5.3/10 and New York Mets is 6.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionSan Diego Padres is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 74.1% win probability, the market is at 34.1%, and the setup carries a 7.4/10 Lab Rating. San Diego Padres has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 30 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (San Diego Padres 4.9/10, New York Mets 5.4/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.0 points from 98.1% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.1%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Cade Cavalli Over 5.5 -140
- Leo side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.4/10
- Model probability
- 72.1%
- Market probability
- 39.9%
- Model vs market
- +32.3%
- Current price
- +150
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Washington Nationals is 5.9/10 and Texas Rangers is 6.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionWashington Nationals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 72.1% win probability, the market is at 39.9%, and the setup carries a 7.4/10 Lab Rating. Washington Nationals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 13 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Washington Nationals is 6.6/10 and Texas Rangers is 7.5/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.0 points from 94.1% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.1%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Clay Holmes Over 4.5 -125
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.8/10
- Model probability
- 72.0%
- Market probability
- 58.1%
- Model vs market
- +14.0%
- Current price
- -143
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Chicago Cubs is 8.3/10 and Chicago White Sox is 10.0/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Chicago White Sox is using a bullpen game. Sean Newcomb is expected to cover about 2.1 innings, leaving roughly 6.9 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 10.0/10 risk with 4.9/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Chicago Cubs. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.8/10 for Chicago Cubs versus 4.9/10 for Chicago White Sox.
Chicago Cubs is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 72.0% win probability, the market is at 58.1%, and the setup carries a 6.8/10 Lab Rating. Chicago Cubs has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 12 rating points. Chicago Cubs has the lower-risk bullpen, 7.9/10 versus 10.0/10. Chicago White Sox has 41.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 9 back-to-back arms. Chicago White Sox's pen has been average lately (4.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.7 points from 93.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.0%.
Chicago White Sox is using a bullpen game. Sean Newcomb is expected to cover about 2.1 innings, leaving roughly 6.9 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 10.0/10 risk with 4.9/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Chicago Cubs. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.8/10 for Chicago Cubs versus 4.9/10 for Chicago White Sox.
Chicago Cubs is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 72.0% win probability, the market is at 58.1%, and the setup carries a 6.8/10 Lab Rating. Chicago Cubs has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 12 rating points. Chicago Cubs has the lower-risk bullpen, 7.9/10 versus 10.0/10. Chicago White Sox has 41.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 9 back-to-back arms. Chicago White Sox's pen has been average lately (4.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.7 points from 93.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.0%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Roki Sasaki Over 4.5 -150
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.4/10
- Model probability
- 72.6%
- Market probability
- 64.3%
- Model vs market
- +8.3%
- Current price
- -190
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 6.9/10 and Colorado Rockies is 6.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Angels Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.2/10
- Model probability
- 74.3%
- Market probability
- 36.9%
- Model vs market
- +37.4%
- Current price
- +167
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Angels by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Angels has the fresher bullpen, 5.0/10 versus 6.6/10. Houston Astros has used 28.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Houston Astros is using a bullpen game. Ethan Pecko is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.6/10 risk with 5.1/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Los Angeles Angels. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.4/10 for Los Angeles Angels versus 5.1/10 for Houston Astros.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Houston Astros is using a bullpen game. Ethan Pecko is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.6/10 risk with 5.1/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Los Angeles Angels. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.4/10 for Los Angeles Angels versus 5.1/10 for Houston Astros.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jeffrey Springs Under 3.5 -147
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 71.1%
- Market probability
- 55.8%
- Model vs market
- +15.3%
- Current price
- -135
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Kansas City Royals is 5.5/10 and Athletics is 6.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 -115
Pitcher Ks: Chase Burns Under 6.5 -134
- Leo side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 73.8%
- Market probability
- 48.7%
- Model vs market
- +25.1%
- Current price
- +104
- Pitcher edge
- Cincinnati Reds by 25 points
- Bullpen read
- Cincinnati Reds has the fresher bullpen, 6.4/10 versus 9.7/10. St. Louis Cardinals has used 25.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Sandy Alcantara Under 4.5 -145
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.6/10
- Model probability
- 72.0%
- Market probability
- 21.8%
- Model vs market
- +50.2%
- Current price
- +425
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Miami Marlins is 8.3/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 8.0/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Chris Bassitt Under 4.5 -107
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.5/10
- Model probability
- 73.2%
- Market probability
- 52.5%
- Model vs market
- +20.7%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 6.4/10 and Baltimore Orioles is 7.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Paul Skenes Under 6.5 -162
- Leo side
- Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.2/10
- Model probability
- 73.1%
- Market probability
- 25.6%
- Model vs market
- +47.4%
- Current price
- +337
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Pittsburgh Pirates is 7.1/10 and Detroit Tigers is 5.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Dustin May Under 5.5 -135
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 69.0%
- Market probability
- 46.0%
- Model vs market
- +23.0%
- Current price
- +113
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Seattle Mariners 5.5/10, Milwaukee Brewers 5.4/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Payton Tolle Over 5.5 -120
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 59.8%
- Market probability
- 21.6%
- Model vs market
- +38.2%
- Current price
- +340
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Boston Red Sox carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.7/10 versus 5.4/10, which adds late-game risk. Boston Red Sox has used 26.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Taj Bradley Over 5.5 -132
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.6/10
- Model probability
- 56.7%
- Market probability
- 47.1%
- Model vs market
- +9.6%
- Current price
- +140
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Atlanta Braves has the fresher bullpen, 4.4/10 versus 8.2/10. Minnesota Twins has used 24.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.