Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Tuesday, August 18, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
8
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
1
WATCHLIST
5
PASSES
8
Updated Aug 18, 7:49 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
Official markets
Moneyline: Cleveland Guardians -182
Pitcher Ks: Foster Griffin Under 5.5 -110
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.1/10
- Model probability
- 73.8%
- Market probability
- 63.7%
- Model vs market
- +10.1%
- Current price
- -182
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 44 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cleveland Guardians is 6.1/10 and San Francisco Giants is 5.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionCleveland Guardians is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 73.8% chance to win, compared with the market's 63.7% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.1/10 Lab Rating. Cleveland Guardians has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 44 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Cleveland Guardians 5.6/10, San Francisco Giants 5.8/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.7 points from 97.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.8%. At -182, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.7/10
- Model probability
- 69.9%
- Market probability
- 65.6%
- Model vs market
- +4.3%
- Current price
- -209
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Tampa Bay Rays is 7.8/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 8.3/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionTampa Bay Rays grades as a strong value setup with 69.9% model win probability against a 65.6% market number and a 7.7/10 Lab Rating. Tampa Bay Rays has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 9 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 8.7/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 8.1/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 20.0 points from 89.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 69.9%. It stayed a value watch because Lab Rating is 7.7/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Zack Wheeler Under 7.5 -147
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.3/10
- Model probability
- 74.1%
- Market probability
- 54.6%
- Model vs market
- +19.6%
- Current price
- -125
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 42 points
- Bullpen read
- Philadelphia Phillies carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.6/10 versus 5.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Philadelphia Phillies has used 18.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Miami Marlins is using a bullpen game. Cade Gibson is expected to cover about 1.3 innings, leaving roughly 7.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.5/10 risk with 3.6/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Philadelphia Phillies. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.1/10 for Philadelphia Phillies versus 3.6/10 for Miami Marlins.
Philadelphia Phillies is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 74.1% win probability, the market is at 54.6%, and the setup carries a 7.3/10 Lab Rating. Philadelphia Phillies has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 42 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Philadelphia Phillies is 7.6/10 and Miami Marlins is 6.5/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.2 points from 98.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.1%.
Miami Marlins is using a bullpen game. Cade Gibson is expected to cover about 1.3 innings, leaving roughly 7.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.5/10 risk with 3.6/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Philadelphia Phillies. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.1/10 for Philadelphia Phillies versus 3.6/10 for Miami Marlins.
Philadelphia Phillies is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 74.1% win probability, the market is at 54.6%, and the setup carries a 7.3/10 Lab Rating. Philadelphia Phillies has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 42 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Philadelphia Phillies is 7.6/10 and Miami Marlins is 6.5/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.2 points from 98.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.1%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kyle Leahy Over 5.5 +115
Pitcher Ks: Andrew Abbott Under 4.5 -113
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.2/10
- Model probability
- 69.0%
- Market probability
- 44.1%
- Model vs market
- +24.9%
- Current price
- +125
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. St. Louis Cardinals is 7.5/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 7.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionSt. Louis Cardinals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 69.0% win probability, the market is at 44.1%, and the setup carries a 7.2/10 Lab Rating. St. Louis Cardinals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 8 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. St. Louis Cardinals is 6.6/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 7.8/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 18.6 points from 87.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 69.0%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.1/10
- Model probability
- 74.0%
- Market probability
- 57.2%
- Model vs market
- +16.8%
- Current price
- -140
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- Boston Red Sox carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.5/10 versus 5.2/10, which adds late-game risk. Boston Red Sox has used 25.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBoston Red Sox is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 74.0% win probability, the market is at 57.2%, and the setup carries a 7.1/10 Lab Rating. Boston Red Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 23 rating points. Boston Red Sox carries the higher-risk bullpen, 7.1/10 versus 5.5/10. Recent context: 25.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 5 back-to-back arms. Boston Red Sox's pen has been effective lately (5.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.1 points from 98.1% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.0%.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.0/10
- Model probability
- 66.3%
- Market probability
- 59.4%
- Model vs market
- +6.9%
- Current price
- -155
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 6.3/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 5.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionHouston Astros is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 66.3% win probability, the market is at 59.4%, and the setup carries a 7.0/10 Lab Rating. Houston Astros has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 9 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 6.5/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 5.0/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 16.9 points from 83.1% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 66.3%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.5/10
- Model probability
- 73.6%
- Market probability
- 59.8%
- Model vs market
- +13.9%
- Current price
- -155
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Kansas City Royals 4.8/10, Athletics 5.8/10).
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Brady Basso is expected to cover about 2.3 innings, leaving roughly 6.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.7/10 risk with 5.3/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Kansas City Royals. Kansas City Royals is using a bullpen game. Daniel Lynch IV is expected to cover about 1.7 innings, leaving roughly 7.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.3/10 risk with 6.0/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.0/10 for Kansas City Royals versus 5.3/10 for Athletics.
Kansas City Royals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.6% win probability, the market is at 59.8%, and the setup carries a 6.5/10 Lab Rating. Kansas City Royals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 19 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Kansas City Royals 4.3/10, Athletics 5.7/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.5 points from 97.1% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.6%.
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Brady Basso is expected to cover about 2.3 innings, leaving roughly 6.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.7/10 risk with 5.3/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Kansas City Royals. Kansas City Royals is using a bullpen game. Daniel Lynch IV is expected to cover about 1.7 innings, leaving roughly 7.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.3/10 risk with 6.0/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.0/10 for Kansas City Royals versus 5.3/10 for Athletics.
Kansas City Royals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.6% win probability, the market is at 59.8%, and the setup carries a 6.5/10 Lab Rating. Kansas City Royals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 19 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Kansas City Royals 4.3/10, Athletics 5.7/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.5 points from 97.1% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.6%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 -141
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.3/10
- Model probability
- 72.2%
- Market probability
- 63.3%
- Model vs market
- +8.9%
- Current price
- -183
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 6.2/10 and Colorado Rockies is 6.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 63.1%
- Market probability
- 61.4%
- Model vs market
- +1.7%
- Current price
- -168
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Chicago Cubs is 7.8/10 and Chicago White Sox is 9.2/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Chicago White Sox is using a bullpen game. Bryan Hudson is expected to cover about 1.2 innings, leaving roughly 7.8 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 9.4/10 risk with 4.6/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Chicago Cubs. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.2/10 for Chicago Cubs versus 4.6/10 for Chicago White Sox.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago White Sox is using a bullpen game. Bryan Hudson is expected to cover about 1.2 innings, leaving roughly 7.8 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 9.4/10 risk with 4.6/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Chicago Cubs. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.2/10 for Chicago Cubs versus 4.6/10 for Chicago White Sox.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 +112
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.0/10
- Model probability
- 67.1%
- Market probability
- 50.3%
- Model vs market
- +16.8%
- Current price
- -102
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Atlanta Braves has the fresher bullpen, 5.4/10 versus 8.5/10. Minnesota Twins has used 24.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Keider Montero Over 3.5 -135
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.9/10
- Model probability
- 59.0%
- Market probability
- 42.7%
- Model vs market
- +16.2%
- Current price
- +127
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers has the fresher bullpen, 6.4/10 versus 9.4/10. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 28.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.6/10
- Model probability
- 67.0%
- Market probability
- 44.8%
- Model vs market
- +22.2%
- Current price
- +120
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Mets is 6.3/10 and San Diego Padres is 5.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.2/10
- Model probability
- 73.9%
- Market probability
- 53.9%
- Model vs market
- +19.9%
- Current price
- -126
- Pitcher edge
- Texas Rangers by 36 points
- Bullpen read
- Texas Rangers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.5/10 versus 5.6/10, which adds late-game risk. Texas Rangers has used 22.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.6/10
- Model probability
- 56.5%
- Market probability
- 53.7%
- Model vs market
- +2.7%
- Current price
- -126
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Yankees has the fresher bullpen, 6.0/10 versus 7.6/10. Baltimore Orioles has used 22.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.6/10
- Model probability
- 52.2%
- Market probability
- 46.5%
- Model vs market
- +5.7%
- Current price
- +112
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Seattle Mariners 5.7/10, Milwaukee Brewers 5.2/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.