Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Monday, August 17, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
11
OFFICIAL PICKS
6
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
3
WATCHLIST
3
PASSES
4
Updated Aug 18, 4:10 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
Get tomorrow's MLB model card free
One email, every morning. No payment required.
Get the organized member view
Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Moneyline: St. Louis Cardinals -116
Pitcher Ks: Andre Pallante Over 4.5 -108
Pitcher Ks: Rhett Lowder Under 4.5 -156
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.4/10
- Model probability
- 74.4%
- Market probability
- 51.3%
- Model vs market
- +23.2%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- St. Louis Cardinals has the fresher bullpen, 5.3/10 versus 7.8/10. Cincinnati Reds has used 22.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionSt. Louis Cardinals is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 74.4% chance to win, compared with the market's 51.3% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.4/10 Lab Rating. St. Louis Cardinals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 20 rating points. St. Louis Cardinals has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 8.7/10. Cincinnati Reds has 22.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 8 back-to-back arms. Cincinnati Reds's pen has been below average lately (3.2/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.3 points from 98.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.4%. At -110, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.0/10
- Model probability
- 74.2%
- Market probability
- 67.9%
- Model vs market
- +6.3%
- Current price
- -240
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 27 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Philadelphia Phillies is 5.6/10 and Miami Marlins is 6.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionPhiladelphia Phillies grades as a strong value setup with 74.2% model win probability against a 67.9% market number and a 8.0/10 Lab Rating. Philadelphia Phillies has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 27 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Philadelphia Phillies is 5.4/10 and Miami Marlins is 6.7/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.1 points from 98.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.2%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review.
Risk notePrimary caution: limited sportsbook sample. Recheck official news before first pitch.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Moneyline: St. Louis Cardinals -110
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.9/10
- Model probability
- 73.2%
- Market probability
- 51.3%
- Model vs market
- +21.9%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- St. Louis Cardinals has the fresher bullpen, 5.3/10 versus 7.8/10. Cincinnati Reds has used 22.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionSt. Louis Cardinals grades as a strong value setup with 73.2% model win probability against a 51.3% market number and a 7.9/10 Lab Rating. St. Louis Cardinals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 14 rating points. St. Louis Cardinals has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 8.7/10. Cincinnati Reds has 22.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 8 back-to-back arms. Cincinnati Reds's pen has been below average lately (3.2/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.7 points from 95.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.2%. It stayed a value watch because Lab Rating is 7.9/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.8/10
- Model probability
- 74.1%
- Market probability
- 60.1%
- Model vs market
- +14.0%
- Current price
- -164
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago Cubs has the fresher bullpen, 7.5/10 versus 9.3/10. Chicago White Sox has used 31.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionChicago Cubs grades as a strong value setup with 74.1% model win probability against a 60.1% market number and a 7.8/10 Lab Rating. Chicago Cubs has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 18 rating points. Chicago Cubs has the lower-risk bullpen, 7.3/10 versus 9.4/10. Chicago White Sox has 31.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 8 back-to-back arms. Chicago White Sox's pen has been average lately (4.8/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.0 points from 98.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.1%. It stayed a value watch because Lab Rating is 7.8/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Walker Buehler Over 3.5 -148
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.0/10
- Model probability
- 74.2%
- Market probability
- 49.1%
- Model vs market
- +25.1%
- Current price
- -104
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Mets has the fresher bullpen, 4.8/10 versus 6.6/10. San Diego Padres has used 27.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Mets is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 74.2% win probability, the market is at 49.1%, and the setup carries a 7.0/10 Lab Rating. New York Mets has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 22 rating points. New York Mets has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.5/10 versus 6.2/10. San Diego Padres has 27.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 3 back-to-back arms. San Diego Padres's pen has been effective lately (5.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.1 points from 98.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.2%.
Risk notePrimary caution: limited sportsbook sample. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.6/10
- Model probability
- 71.9%
- Market probability
- 60.4%
- Model vs market
- +11.5%
- Current price
- -160
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Boston Red Sox 5.1/10, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.3/10).
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Boston Red Sox is using a bullpen game. Alec Gamboa is expected to cover about 1.3 innings, leaving roughly 7.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.1/10 risk with 5.1/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.1/10 for Boston Red Sox versus 6.8/10 for Arizona Diamondbacks.
Boston Red Sox is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 71.9% win probability, the market is at 60.4%, and the setup carries a 6.6/10 Lab Rating. Boston Red Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 14 rating points. Boston Red Sox carries the higher-risk bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 3.4/10. Recent context: 18.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 5 back-to-back arms. Boston Red Sox's pen has been average lately (5.1/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.2 points from 94.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 71.9%.
Boston Red Sox is using a bullpen game. Alec Gamboa is expected to cover about 1.3 innings, leaving roughly 7.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.1/10 risk with 5.1/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.1/10 for Boston Red Sox versus 6.8/10 for Arizona Diamondbacks.
Boston Red Sox is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 71.9% win probability, the market is at 60.4%, and the setup carries a 6.6/10 Lab Rating. Boston Red Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 14 rating points. Boston Red Sox carries the higher-risk bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 3.4/10. Recent context: 18.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 5 back-to-back arms. Boston Red Sox's pen has been average lately (5.1/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.2 points from 94.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 71.9%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.5/10
- Model probability
- 73.9%
- Market probability
- 54.3%
- Model vs market
- +19.6%
- Current price
- -130
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 32 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Kansas City Royals 4.3/10, Athletics 5.0/10).
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Mason Barnett is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.0/10 risk with 3.1/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Kansas City Royals. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.4/10 for Kansas City Royals versus 3.1/10 for Athletics.
Kansas City Royals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.9% win probability, the market is at 54.3%, and the setup carries a 6.5/10 Lab Rating. Kansas City Royals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 32 rating points. Kansas City Royals has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.1/10 versus 6.0/10. Athletics has 20.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 2 back-to-back arms. Athletics's pen has been below average lately (3.1/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.8 points from 97.6% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.9%.
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Mason Barnett is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.0/10 risk with 3.1/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Kansas City Royals. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.4/10 for Kansas City Royals versus 3.1/10 for Athletics.
Kansas City Royals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.9% win probability, the market is at 54.3%, and the setup carries a 6.5/10 Lab Rating. Kansas City Royals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 32 rating points. Kansas City Royals has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.1/10 versus 6.0/10. Athletics has 20.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 2 back-to-back arms. Athletics's pen has been below average lately (3.1/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.8 points from 97.6% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.9%.
Risk notePrimary caution: limited sportsbook sample. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.4/10
- Model probability
- 71.1%
- Market probability
- 54.2%
- Model vs market
- +16.9%
- Current price
- -124
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Atlanta Braves has the fresher bullpen, 5.8/10 versus 8.1/10. Minnesota Twins has used 21.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Shane McClanahan Over 4.5 -115
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 65.0%
- Market probability
- 60.1%
- Model vs market
- +5.0%
- Current price
- -158
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 7.5/10 and Baltimore Orioles is 8.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
- Leo side
- Colorado Rockies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 61.1%
- Market probability
- 39.2%
- Model vs market
- +21.9%
- Current price
- +149
- Pitcher edge
- Colorado Rockies by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Colorado Rockies is 7.0/10 and Los Angeles Dodgers is 5.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- Leo side
- Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 1.4/10
- Model probability
- 51.7%
- Market probability
- 55.9%
- Model vs market
- -4.2%
- Current price
- -130
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Pittsburgh Pirates is 7.5/10 and Detroit Tigers is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.