Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Sunday, August 16, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
23
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
2
WATCHLIST
2
PASSES
10
Updated Aug 16, 5:46 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Moneyline: Miami Marlins -118
Pitcher Ks: Nick Lodolo Under 4.5 +100
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.0/10
- Model probability
- 74.4%
- Market probability
- 51.1%
- Model vs market
- +23.3%
- Current price
- -105
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- Miami Marlins has the fresher bullpen, 4.7/10 versus 6.3/10. Cincinnati Reds has used 20.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionMiami Marlins is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 74.4% chance to win, compared with the market's 51.1% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.0/10 Lab Rating. Miami Marlins has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 22 rating points. Miami Marlins has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 7.1/10. Cincinnati Reds has 20.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Cincinnati Reds's pen has been below average lately (3.4/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.3 points from 98.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.4%. At -105, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
Official markets
Moneyline: Kansas City Royals -108
Pitcher Ks: Noah Cameron Over 5.5 -150
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.9/10
- Model probability
- 74.2%
- Market probability
- 84.5%
- Model vs market
- -10.3%
- Current price
- -690
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 27 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Kansas City Royals is 6.0/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 6.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionKansas City Royals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 74.2% win probability, the market is at 84.5%, and the setup carries a 7.9/10 Lab Rating. Kansas City Royals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 27 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Kansas City Royals is 6.6/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 7.0/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.1 points from 98.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.2%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Official markets
Moneyline: New York Mets -159
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.7/10
- Model probability
- 73.6%
- Market probability
- 66.6%
- Model vs market
- +7.0%
- Current price
- -111
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 17 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Mets has the fresher bullpen, 5.2/10 versus 7.4/10. Washington Nationals has used 28.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Mets grades as a strong value setup with 73.6% model win probability against a 66.6% market number and a 7.7/10 Lab Rating. New York Mets has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 17 rating points. New York Mets has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.0/10 versus 7.9/10. Washington Nationals has 28.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 3 back-to-back arms. Washington Nationals's pen has been below average lately (4.0/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.4 points from 97.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.6%. It stayed a value watch because Lab Rating is 7.7/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
Official markets
Moneyline: Arizona Diamondbacks +115
Pitcher Ks: Michael Soroka Over 4.5 -104
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.5/10
- Model probability
- 68.8%
- Market probability
- 34.0%
- Model vs market
- +34.8%
- Current price
- +280
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Arizona Diamondbacks has the fresher bullpen, 4.6/10 versus 6.3/10. Atlanta Braves has used 22.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionArizona Diamondbacks grades as a strong value setup with 68.8% model win probability against a 34.0% market number and a 7.5/10 Lab Rating. Arizona Diamondbacks has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 11 rating points. Arizona Diamondbacks has the lower-risk bullpen, 3.2/10 versus 6.1/10. Atlanta Braves has 22.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 4 back-to-back arms. Atlanta Braves's pen has been effective lately (5.5/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 17.8 points from 86.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 68.8%. It stayed a value watch because Lab Rating is 7.5/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Casey Mize Under 4.5 -161
Pitcher Ks: Tanner Bibee Under 4.5 -113
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.6/10
- Model probability
- 67.5%
- Market probability
- 75.0%
- Model vs market
- -7.5%
- Current price
- -300
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. San Diego Padres is 7.5/10 and Cleveland Guardians is 7.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionSan Diego Padres is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 67.5% win probability, the market is at 75.0%, and the setup carries a 6.6/10 Lab Rating. San Diego Padres has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 7 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. San Diego Padres is 6.9/10 and Cleveland Guardians is 7.6/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 17.2 points from 84.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 67.5%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Andrew Painter Over 3.5 -134
Pitcher Ks: Dean Kremer Under 4.5 -132
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.0/10
- Model probability
- 73.4%
- Market probability
- 84.6%
- Model vs market
- -11.2%
- Current price
- -680
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Minnesota Twins is 6.0/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 5.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Hunter Dobbins Over 3.5 -128
Pitcher Ks: Edward Cabrera Under 4.5 -158
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.0/10
- Model probability
- 73.0%
- Market probability
- 38.8%
- Model vs market
- +34.1%
- Current price
- +157
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (St. Louis Cardinals 5.1/10, Chicago Cubs 5.1/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
- Leo side
- Toronto Blue Jays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.9/10
- Model probability
- 72.9%
- Market probability
- 53.5%
- Model vs market
- +19.4%
- Current price
- +175
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Toronto Blue Jays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 10.0/10 versus 6.9/10, which adds late-game risk. Toronto Blue Jays has used 33.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 10 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 +110
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.7/10
- Model probability
- 68.5%
- Market probability
- 44.3%
- Model vs market
- +24.2%
- Current price
- +140
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 6.5/10 and Milwaukee Brewers is 5.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Trevor Rogers Under 4.5 -132
Pitcher Ks: Freddy Peralta Under 6.5 -148
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.6/10
- Model probability
- 70.8%
- Market probability
- 40.7%
- Model vs market
- +30.0%
- Current price
- +140
- Pitcher edge
- Baltimore Orioles by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Baltimore Orioles is 8.8/10 and Tampa Bay Rays is 8.0/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Gabriel Hughes Over 3.5 -160
Pitcher Ks: Blade Tidwell Over 4.5 -115
- Leo side
- San Francisco Giants Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.4/10
- Model probability
- 71.9%
- Market probability
- 61.2%
- Model vs market
- +10.7%
- Current price
- -147
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (San Francisco Giants 5.9/10, Colorado Rockies 5.8/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Texas Rangers @ Athletics
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jacob Lopez Over 4.5 -130
Pitcher Ks: Cody Bradford Under 4.5 -148
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.2/10
- Model probability
- 73.4%
- Market probability
- 48.6%
- Model vs market
- +24.8%
- Current price
- +100
- Pitcher edge
- Texas Rangers by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Texas Rangers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.4/10 versus 5.2/10, which adds late-game risk. Texas Rangers has used 29.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Bryan Woo Under 5.5 -104
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 67.3%
- Market probability
- 46.6%
- Model vs market
- +20.7%
- Current price
- +112
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Seattle Mariners is 6.1/10 and Houston Astros is 7.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Patrick Sandoval Over 4.5 -150
- Leo side
- Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.8/10
- Model probability
- 73.9%
- Market probability
- 49.5%
- Model vs market
- +24.4%
- Current price
- +102
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 21 points
- Bullpen read
- Pittsburgh Pirates carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.0/10 versus 4.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 22.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Pittsburgh Pirates is using a bullpen game. Lake Bachar is expected to cover about 2.4 innings, leaving roughly 6.6 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.4/10 risk with 4.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.2/10 for Pittsburgh Pirates versus 5.1/10 for Boston Red Sox.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pittsburgh Pirates is using a bullpen game. Lake Bachar is expected to cover about 2.4 innings, leaving roughly 6.6 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.4/10 risk with 4.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.2/10 for Pittsburgh Pirates versus 5.1/10 for Boston Red Sox.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Sean Burke Under 5.5 +101
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 54.2%
- Market probability
- 86.1%
- Model vs market
- -31.9%
- Current price
- -800
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers has the fresher bullpen, 6.3/10 versus 10.0/10. Chicago White Sox has used 35.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.