Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Saturday, August 15, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
15
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
1
PASSES
13
Updated Aug 15, 8:36 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
Official markets
Moneyline: San Diego Padres -108
Pitcher Ks: Joey Cantillo Under 5.5 -138
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.3/10
- Model probability
- 61.4%
- Market probability
- 50.8%
- Model vs market
- +10.5%
- Current price
- -108
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 25 points
- Bullpen read
- San Diego Padres has the fresher bullpen, 5.8/10 versus 8.2/10. Cleveland Guardians has used 23.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
San Diego Padres is using a bullpen game. Wandy Peralta is expected to cover about 1.0 innings, leaving roughly 8.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.7/10 risk with 7.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.2/10 for San Diego Padres versus 4.0/10 for Cleveland Guardians.
San Diego Padres is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 61.4% chance to win, compared with the market's 50.8% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.3/10 Lab Rating. San Diego Padres has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 25 rating points. San Diego Padres has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.7/10 versus 8.7/10. Cleveland Guardians has 23.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 8 back-to-back arms. Cleveland Guardians's pen has been below average lately (4.0/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 8.9 points from 70.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 61.4%. At -108, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
San Diego Padres is using a bullpen game. Wandy Peralta is expected to cover about 1.0 innings, leaving roughly 8.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.7/10 risk with 7.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.2/10 for San Diego Padres versus 4.0/10 for Cleveland Guardians.
San Diego Padres is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 61.4% chance to win, compared with the market's 50.8% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.3/10 Lab Rating. San Diego Padres has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 25 rating points. San Diego Padres has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.7/10 versus 8.7/10. Cleveland Guardians has 23.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 8 back-to-back arms. Cleveland Guardians's pen has been below average lately (4.0/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 8.9 points from 70.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 61.4%. At -108, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Troy Melton Over 5.5 +115
Pitcher Ks: Anthony Kay Under 4.5 -129
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.6/10
- Model probability
- 57.0%
- Market probability
- 50.2%
- Model vs market
- +6.8%
- Current price
- -104
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers has the fresher bullpen, 6.0/10 versus 10.0/10. Chicago White Sox has used 35.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionDetroit Tigers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 57.0% win probability, the market is at 50.2%, and the setup carries a 6.6/10 Lab Rating. Detroit Tigers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 24 rating points. Detroit Tigers has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.4/10 versus 10.0/10. Chicago White Sox has 35.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Chicago White Sox's pen has been below average lately (4.4/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 3.8 points from 60.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 57.0%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 53.3%
- Market probability
- 47.9%
- Model vs market
- +5.4%
- Current price
- +105
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Boston Red Sox 5.5/10, Pittsburgh Pirates 5.2/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.7/10
- Model probability
- 53.1%
- Market probability
- 50.8%
- Model vs market
- +2.2%
- Current price
- -108
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 27 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Philadelphia Phillies is 6.2/10 and Minnesota Twins is 6.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Justin Wrobleski Over 4.5 -160
Pitcher Ks: Jacob Misiorowski Under 8.5 -104
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.2/10
- Model probability
- 50.9%
- Market probability
- 38.3%
- Model vs market
- +12.7%
- Current price
- +158
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 17 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 5.9/10 and Los Angeles Dodgers is 7.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.1/10
- Model probability
- 56.2%
- Market probability
- 59.1%
- Model vs market
- -2.9%
- Current price
- -150
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Chicago Cubs 5.0/10, St. Louis Cardinals 5.3/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kyle Bradish Under 4.5 -109
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.1/10
- Model probability
- 58.6%
- Market probability
- 56.6%
- Model vs market
- +2.0%
- Current price
- -133
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Tampa Bay Rays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.9/10 versus 5.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Tampa Bay Rays has used 28.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Hayden Wesneski Under 4.5 -135
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.7/10
- Model probability
- 54.3%
- Market probability
- 55.0%
- Model vs market
- -0.8%
- Current price
- -128
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 7.7/10 and Seattle Mariners is 7.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 +120
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.6/10
- Model probability
- 50.7%
- Market probability
- 47.9%
- Model vs market
- +2.8%
- Current price
- +105
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 7.0/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 6.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Toronto Blue Jays is using a bullpen game. Braydon Fisher is expected to cover about 1.1 innings, leaving roughly 7.9 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.7/10 risk with 4.8/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Yankees. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.4/10 for New York Yankees versus 4.8/10 for Toronto Blue Jays.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays is using a bullpen game. Braydon Fisher is expected to cover about 1.1 innings, leaving roughly 7.9 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.7/10 risk with 4.8/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Yankees. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.4/10 for New York Yankees versus 4.8/10 for Toronto Blue Jays.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Brady Singer Under 5.5 -135
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.4/10
- Model probability
- 54.5%
- Market probability
- 53.0%
- Model vs market
- +1.5%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge
- Bullpen read
- Miami Marlins has the fresher bullpen, 4.0/10 versus 7.0/10. Cincinnati Reds has used 20.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 -140
Pitcher Ks: Logan Webb Under 5.5 -115
- Leo side
- Colorado Rockies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.4/10
- Model probability
- 51.2%
- Market probability
- 45.1%
- Model vs market
- +6.1%
- Current price
- +117
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 45 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Colorado Rockies is 5.5/10 and San Francisco Giants is 6.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Randy Dobnak Under 3.5 -150
Pitcher Ks: Reid Detmers Under 6.5 -132
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.4/10
- Model probability
- 50.8%
- Market probability
- 52.6%
- Model vs market
- -1.8%
- Current price
- -120
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Angels by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Kansas City Royals has the fresher bullpen, 5.9/10 versus 8.7/10. Los Angeles Angels has used 29.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Texas Rangers @ Athletics
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.3/10
- Model probability
- 59.8%
- Market probability
- 55.8%
- Model vs market
- +4.0%
- Current price
- -132
- Pitcher edge
- Athletics by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Texas Rangers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.0/10 versus 5.5/10, which adds late-game risk. Texas Rangers has used 29.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.3/10
- Model probability
- 52.1%
- Market probability
- 60.5%
- Model vs market
- -8.4%
- Current price
- -159
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (New York Mets 5.6/10, Washington Nationals 5.4/10).
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Brad Lord is expected to cover about 1.9 innings, leaving roughly 7.1 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.7/10 risk with 4.5/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Mets. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.3/10 for New York Mets versus 4.5/10 for Washington Nationals.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Brad Lord is expected to cover about 1.9 innings, leaving roughly 7.1 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.7/10 risk with 4.5/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Mets. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.3/10 for New York Mets versus 4.5/10 for Washington Nationals.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Grant Holmes Under 3.5 +115
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 1.9/10
- Model probability
- 53.4%
- Market probability
- 53.9%
- Model vs market
- -0.5%
- Current price
- -125
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Atlanta Braves 5.6/10, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.7/10).
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.