Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Friday, August 14, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
14
OFFICIAL PICKS
3
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
1
PASSES
13
Updated Aug 14, 5:51 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
Get tomorrow's MLB model card free
One email, every morning. No payment required.
Get the organized member view
Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 58.8%
- Market probability
- 61.3%
- Model vs market
- -2.5%
- Current price
- -170
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Chicago Cubs 5.6/10, St. Louis Cardinals 5.9/10).
Why Leo made this decisionChicago Cubs is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 58.8% win probability, the market is at 61.3%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. Chicago Cubs has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 20 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Chicago Cubs 5.5/10, St. Louis Cardinals 5.3/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 8.9 points from 67.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 58.8%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.9/10
- Model probability
- 59.8%
- Market probability
- 60.0%
- Model vs market
- -0.3%
- Current price
- -154
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Tampa Bay Rays 5.7/10, Baltimore Orioles 5.9/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.6/10
- Model probability
- 58.0%
- Market probability
- 59.6%
- Model vs market
- -1.6%
- Current price
- -157
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers has the fresher bullpen, 5.3/10 versus 8.9/10. Chicago White Sox has used 35.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Chicago White Sox is using a bullpen game. Sean Newcomb is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 9.5/10 risk with 3.9/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Detroit Tigers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.9/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 3.9/10 for Chicago White Sox.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Chicago White Sox is using a bullpen game. Sean Newcomb is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 9.5/10 risk with 3.9/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Detroit Tigers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.9/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 3.9/10 for Chicago White Sox.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Bubba Chandler Under 4.5 -146
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.5/10
- Model probability
- 53.8%
- Market probability
- 52.9%
- Model vs market
- +0.9%
- Current price
- -120
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Boston Red Sox 5.4/10, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.8/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 58.2%
- Market probability
- 57.1%
- Model vs market
- +1.1%
- Current price
- -140
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Atlanta Braves is 6.1/10 and Arizona Diamondbacks is 5.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Texas Rangers @ Athletics
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 62.3%
- Market probability
- 50.5%
- Model vs market
- +11.8%
- Current price
- -106
- Pitcher edge
- Texas Rangers by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Texas Rangers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.8/10 versus 5.6/10, which adds late-game risk. Texas Rangers has used 30.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Athletics is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.3/10 risk with 1.7/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Texas Rangers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.4/10 for Texas Rangers versus 1.7/10 for Athletics.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Athletics is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.3/10 risk with 1.7/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Texas Rangers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.4/10 for Texas Rangers versus 1.7/10 for Athletics.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 50.6%
- Market probability
- 42.7%
- Model vs market
- +7.8%
- Current price
- +129
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- Kansas City Royals has the fresher bullpen, 5.7/10 versus 7.4/10. Los Angeles Angels has used 29.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.7/10
- Model probability
- 53.5%
- Market probability
- 57.8%
- Model vs market
- -4.3%
- Current price
- -140
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 34 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 8.7/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 7.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
- Leo side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 51.5%
- Market probability
- 47.7%
- Model vs market
- +3.8%
- Current price
- +106
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 26 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Washington Nationals is 6.2/10 and New York Mets is 5.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.3/10
- Model probability
- 52.1%
- Market probability
- 44.7%
- Model vs market
- +7.4%
- Current price
- +118
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 27 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 6.6/10 and Milwaukee Brewers is 7.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Gavin Williams Under 7.5 -155
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.2/10
- Model probability
- 56.5%
- Market probability
- 45.2%
- Model vs market
- +11.3%
- Current price
- +119
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. San Diego Padres is 6.3/10 and Cleveland Guardians is 5.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.7/10
- Model probability
- 53.4%
- Market probability
- 53.6%
- Model vs market
- -0.2%
- Current price
- -120
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Houston Astros carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.8/10 versus 5.2/10, which adds late-game risk. Houston Astros has used 25.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
- Leo side
- Colorado Rockies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.5/10
- Model probability
- 52.5%
- Market probability
- 38.2%
- Model vs market
- +14.3%
- Current price
- +160
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Colorado Rockies is 7.2/10 and San Francisco Giants is 7.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 -128
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.6/10
- Model probability
- 52.4%
- Market probability
- 48.9%
- Model vs market
- +3.5%
- Current price
- +100
- Pitcher edge
- Cincinnati Reds by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Miami Marlins has the fresher bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 7.6/10. Cincinnati Reds has used 26.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.