Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Thursday, August 13, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
9
OFFICIAL PICKS
8
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
0
PASSES
9
Updated Aug 14, 3:22 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 62.1%
- Market probability
- 48.7%
- Model vs market
- +13.4%
- Current price
- +100
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 5.8/10 and Cleveland Guardians is 6.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Payton Tolle Over 5.5 -122
Pitcher Ks: Max Scherzer Under 4.5 -158
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 55.9%
- Market probability
- 56.9%
- Model vs market
- -1.0%
- Current price
- -137
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 6.9/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 8.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 62.7%
- Market probability
- 60.1%
- Model vs market
- +2.7%
- Current price
- -156
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Yankees carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.6/10 versus 5.5/10, which adds late-game risk. New York Yankees has used 17.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Cade Cavalli Over 5.5 +118
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.2/10
- Model probability
- 57.4%
- Market probability
- 57.6%
- Model vs market
- -0.2%
- Current price
- -141
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago Cubs has the fresher bullpen, 5.9/10 versus 8.1/10. Washington Nationals has used 26.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 -142
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.9/10
- Model probability
- 55.6%
- Market probability
- 46.8%
- Model vs market
- +8.8%
- Current price
- +112
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Miami Marlins has the fresher bullpen, 4.9/10 versus 6.8/10. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 26.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Aaron Nola Under 5.5 -152
Pitcher Ks: Taj Bradley Under 5.5 +111
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.8/10
- Model probability
- 53.5%
- Market probability
- 50.1%
- Model vs market
- +3.4%
- Current price
- -104
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Minnesota Twins is 6.3/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 6.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.2/10
- Model probability
- 53.4%
- Market probability
- 38.0%
- Model vs market
- +15.4%
- Current price
- +158
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 6.2/10 and Los Angeles Dodgers is 7.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Davis Martin Over 4.5 -119
Pitcher Ks: Andrew Abbott Under 4.5 -110
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.0/10
- Model probability
- 56.1%
- Market probability
- 55.0%
- Model vs market
- +1.1%
- Current price
- -122
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago White Sox is 7.1/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 5.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Angels Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 1.3/10
- Model probability
- 50.0%
- Market probability
- 41.7%
- Model vs market
- +8.3%
- Current price
- +138
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Angels carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.6/10 versus 5.7/10, which adds late-game risk. Los Angeles Angels has used 30.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.