Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Tuesday, August 11, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
7
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
2
PASSES
11
Updated Aug 11, 6:47 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
Official markets
Moneyline: Detroit Tigers -120
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 9.0/10
- Model probability
- 64.5%
- Market probability
- 54.5%
- Model vs market
- +10.0%
- Current price
- -128
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers has the fresher bullpen, 5.6/10 versus 8.3/10. Cleveland Guardians has used 25.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 9 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Detroit Tigers is using a bullpen game. Drew Anderson is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.6/10 risk with 7.1/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.1/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 2.8/10 for Cleveland Guardians.
Detroit Tigers is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 64.5% chance to win, compared with the market's 54.5% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 9.0/10 Lab Rating. Detroit Tigers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 8 rating points. Detroit Tigers has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.6/10 versus 9.4/10. Cleveland Guardians has 25.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 9 back-to-back arms. Cleveland Guardians's pen has been struggling lately (2.8/10 efficiency). At -128, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Detroit Tigers is using a bullpen game. Drew Anderson is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.6/10 risk with 7.1/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.1/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 2.8/10 for Cleveland Guardians.
Detroit Tigers is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 64.5% chance to win, compared with the market's 54.5% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 9.0/10 Lab Rating. Detroit Tigers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 8 rating points. Detroit Tigers has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.6/10 versus 9.4/10. Cleveland Guardians has 25.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 9 back-to-back arms. Cleveland Guardians's pen has been struggling lately (2.8/10 efficiency). At -128, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
Official markets
Moneyline: Tampa Bay Rays -167
Pitcher Ks: Nick Martinez Under 3.5 -143
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.7/10
- Model probability
- 65.7%
- Market probability
- 62.9%
- Model vs market
- +2.8%
- Current price
- -180
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 30 points
- Bullpen read
- Tampa Bay Rays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.9/10 versus 5.5/10, which adds late-game risk. Tampa Bay Rays has used 27.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionTampa Bay Rays is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 65.7% chance to win, compared with the market's 62.9% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.7/10 Lab Rating. Tampa Bay Rays has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 30 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 7.9/10 and Athletics is 7.0/10. At -180, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.2/10
- Model probability
- 59.0%
- Market probability
- 62.7%
- Model vs market
- -3.8%
- Current price
- -178
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 34 points
- Bullpen read
- Houston Astros has the fresher bullpen, 5.7/10 versus 8.9/10. San Francisco Giants has used 27.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionHouston Astros is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 59.0% win probability, the market is at 62.7%, and the setup carries a 8.2/10 Lab Rating. Houston Astros has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 34 rating points. Houston Astros has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.5/10 versus 10.0/10. San Francisco Giants has 27.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. San Francisco Giants's pen has been struggling lately (2.9/10 efficiency).
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.6/10
- Model probability
- 56.1%
- Market probability
- 62.0%
- Model vs market
- -5.9%
- Current price
- -167
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 21 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago Cubs is 5.7/10 and Washington Nationals is 6.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionChicago Cubs is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 56.1% win probability, the market is at 62.0%, and the setup carries a 6.6/10 Lab Rating. Chicago Cubs has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 21 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Chicago Cubs 5.5/10, Washington Nationals 6.1/10).
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.3/10
- Model probability
- 55.3%
- Market probability
- 58.1%
- Model vs market
- -2.8%
- Current price
- -142
- Pitcher edge
- Texas Rangers by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Texas Rangers is 7.2/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 7.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Patrick Sandoval Under 4.5 -134
Pitcher Ks: Dylan Cease Under 7.5 +124
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.6/10
- Model probability
- 56.1%
- Market probability
- 54.1%
- Model vs market
- +2.0%
- Current price
- -125
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 30 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Boston Red Sox is 8.5/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 10.0/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.8/10
- Model probability
- 60.2%
- Market probability
- 61.3%
- Model vs market
- -1.1%
- Current price
- -170
- Pitcher edge
- Colorado Rockies by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.1/10 and Colorado Rockies is 7.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.6/10
- Model probability
- 54.0%
- Market probability
- 49.4%
- Model vs market
- +4.6%
- Current price
- -102
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Miami Marlins is 5.9/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 6.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.4/10
- Model probability
- 53.4%
- Market probability
- 59.1%
- Model vs market
- -5.7%
- Current price
- -150
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Philadelphia Phillies carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.2/10 versus 6.5/10, which adds late-game risk. Philadelphia Phillies has used 30.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 9 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.1/10
- Model probability
- 59.6%
- Market probability
- 66.6%
- Model vs market
- -7.0%
- Current price
- -210
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Dodgers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.9/10 versus 5.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Los Angeles Dodgers has used 21.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.7/10
- Model probability
- 58.3%
- Market probability
- 52.8%
- Model vs market
- +5.5%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 6.1/10 and Seattle Mariners is 6.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.6/10
- Model probability
- 54.3%
- Market probability
- 51.6%
- Model vs market
- +2.7%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- Baltimore Orioles by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Minnesota Twins is 6.2/10 and Baltimore Orioles is 5.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Sean Burke Over 7.5 +115
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.3/10
- Model probability
- 55.8%
- Market probability
- 56.9%
- Model vs market
- -1.1%
- Current price
- -137
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago White Sox carries the heavier bullpen workload, 10.0/10 versus 5.4/10, which adds late-game risk. Chicago White Sox has used 36.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.9/10
- Model probability
- 52.4%
- Market probability
- 52.8%
- Model vs market
- -0.4%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 25 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 7.1/10 and San Diego Padres is 6.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Nolan McLean Over 5.5 -155
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 1.7/10
- Model probability
- 53.5%
- Market probability
- 59.2%
- Model vs market
- -5.7%
- Current price
- -150
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Atlanta Braves is 6.2/10 and New York Mets is 6.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.