Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Monday, August 10, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
10
OFFICIAL PICKS
11
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
1
PASSES
8
Updated Aug 10, 6:57 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Official markets
Moneyline: Boston Red Sox +126
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.2/10
- Model probability
- 61.8%
- Market probability
- 42.2%
- Model vs market
- +19.6%
- Current price
- +131
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 29 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Boston Red Sox is 9.9/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 10.0/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionBoston Red Sox is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 61.8% chance to win, compared with the market's 42.2% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.2/10 Lab Rating. Boston Red Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 29 rating points. Both bullpens carry high risk. Boston Red Sox is 9.2/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 9.9/10, so the late innings carry meaningful volatility on both sides. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 11.4 points from 73.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 61.8%. At +131, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jacob Lopez Under 4.5 -132
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 64.9%
- Market probability
- 59.3%
- Model vs market
- +5.6%
- Current price
- -162
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Tampa Bay Rays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 10.0/10 versus 6.5/10, which adds late-game risk. Tampa Bay Rays has used 27.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionTampa Bay Rays is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 64.9% win probability, the market is at 59.3%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. Tampa Bay Rays has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 6 rating points. Tampa Bay Rays carries the higher-risk bullpen, 9.3/10 versus 6.9/10. Recent context: 27.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Tampa Bay Rays's pen has been effective lately (6.4/10 efficiency).
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution; limited sportsbook sample. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael Soroka Over 4.5 +114
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.0/10
- Model probability
- 60.1%
- Market probability
- 60.9%
- Model vs market
- -0.8%
- Current price
- -168
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Arizona Diamondbacks has the fresher bullpen, 5.7/10 versus 7.7/10. Colorado Rockies has used 26.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 +100
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.6/10
- Model probability
- 60.6%
- Market probability
- 70.3%
- Model vs market
- -9.6%
- Current price
- -260
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Dodgers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.7/10 versus 6.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Los Angeles Dodgers has used 21.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 54.2%
- Market probability
- 64.1%
- Model vs market
- -10.0%
- Current price
- -200
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 6.2/10 and San Francisco Giants is 6.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Hunter Dobbins Over 3.5 +105
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.0/10
- Model probability
- 51.0%
- Market probability
- 40.0%
- Model vs market
- +11.1%
- Current price
- +145
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- St. Louis Cardinals has the fresher bullpen, 5.6/10 versus 10.0/10. Philadelphia Phillies has used 29.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 9 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Dean Kremer Over 5.5 +117
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.0/10
- Model probability
- 51.4%
- Market probability
- 48.3%
- Model vs market
- +3.0%
- Current price
- +104
- Pitcher edge
- Baltimore Orioles by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- Baltimore Orioles has the fresher bullpen, 5.7/10 versus 7.5/10. Minnesota Twins has used 20.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: MacKenzie Gore Over 6.5 +104
Pitcher Ks: Reid Detmers Over 6.5 -128
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.0/10
- Model probability
- 50.0%
- Market probability
- 56.7%
- Model vs market
- -6.7%
- Current price
- -143
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Angels by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Texas Rangers is 7.3/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Christian Scott Over 5.5 -112
Pitcher Ks: Bryce Elder Over 4.5 +102
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 1.9/10
- Model probability
- 54.4%
- Market probability
- 54.1%
- Model vs market
- +0.2%
- Current price
- -125
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Atlanta Braves is 6.3/10 and New York Mets is 5.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Logan Henderson Under 5.5 -115
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 1.8/10
- Model probability
- 50.8%
- Market probability
- 56.2%
- Model vs market
- -5.4%
- Current price
- -136
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.9/10 versus 7.1/10, which adds late-game risk. Milwaukee Brewers has used 28.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.