Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Sunday, August 9, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
9
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
4
PASSES
11
Updated Aug 9, 5:59 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
Get tomorrow's MLB model card free
One email, every morning. No payment required.
Get the organized member view
Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jacob Misiorowski Under 8.5 +113
Pitcher Ks: Connor Prielipp Over 5.5 -102
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.8/10
- Model probability
- 61.4%
- Market probability
- 70.3%
- Model vs market
- -9.0%
- Current price
- -245
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 32 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 7.4/10 and Minnesota Twins is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMilwaukee Brewers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 61.4% win probability, the market is at 70.3%, and the setup carries a 7.8/10 Lab Rating. Milwaukee Brewers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 32 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 6.4/10 and Minnesota Twins is 7.2/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 10.9 points from 72.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 61.4%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.5/10
- Model probability
- 68.9%
- Market probability
- 67.8%
- Model vs market
- +1.1%
- Current price
- -223
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Boston Red Sox carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.6/10 versus 6.3/10, which adds late-game risk. Boston Red Sox has used 27.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Boston Red Sox is using a bullpen game. Erik Miller is expected to cover about 1.0 innings, leaving roughly 8.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.8/10 risk with 6.6/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.6/10 for Boston Red Sox versus 2.9/10 for Athletics.
Boston Red Sox is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 68.9% win probability, the market is at 67.8%, and the setup carries a 7.5/10 Lab Rating. The starting pitching matchup does not create a clear advantage. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 7.8/10 and Athletics is 7.4/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 19.0 points from 87.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 68.9%.
Boston Red Sox is using a bullpen game. Erik Miller is expected to cover about 1.0 innings, leaving roughly 8.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.8/10 risk with 6.6/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.6/10 for Boston Red Sox versus 2.9/10 for Athletics.
Boston Red Sox is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 68.9% win probability, the market is at 67.8%, and the setup carries a 7.5/10 Lab Rating. The starting pitching matchup does not create a clear advantage. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 7.8/10 and Athletics is 7.4/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 19.0 points from 87.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 68.9%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 -160
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.4/10
- Model probability
- 58.5%
- Market probability
- 57.2%
- Model vs market
- +1.3%
- Current price
- -138
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 27 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Miami Marlins is 6.1/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 7.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMiami Marlins is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 58.5% win probability, the market is at 57.2%, and the setup carries a 7.4/10 Lab Rating. Miami Marlins has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 27 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Miami Marlins is 6.1/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 7.1/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 7.8 points from 66.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 58.5%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.7/10
- Model probability
- 56.6%
- Market probability
- 54.2%
- Model vs market
- +2.5%
- Current price
- -122
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers has the fresher bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 8.5/10. San Francisco Giants has used 27.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionDetroit Tigers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 56.6% win probability, the market is at 54.2%, and the setup carries a 6.7/10 Lab Rating. Detroit Tigers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 10 rating points. Detroit Tigers has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.2/10 versus 9.1/10. San Francisco Giants has 27.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. San Francisco Giants's pen has been below average lately (3.9/10 efficiency).
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Matthew Boyd Under 4.5 -110
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 60.1%
- Market probability
- 60.1%
- Model vs market
- +0.0%
- Current price
- -154
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago Cubs is 7.4/10 and Kansas City Royals is 7.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Shane Bieber Under 3.5 +115
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.6/10
- Model probability
- 53.6%
- Market probability
- 67.7%
- Model vs market
- -14.0%
- Current price
- -220
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 32 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Philadelphia Phillies is 9.5/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 10.0/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 -125
Pitcher Ks: Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 -170
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.4/10
- Model probability
- 57.3%
- Market probability
- 60.2%
- Model vs market
- -2.8%
- Current price
- -158
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 33 points
- Bullpen read
- St. Louis Cardinals has the fresher bullpen, 5.8/10 versus 7.8/10. Colorado Rockies has used 23.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.2/10
- Model probability
- 51.3%
- Market probability
- 47.2%
- Model vs market
- +4.2%
- Current price
- +108
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 5.8/10 and San Diego Padres is 6.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.1/10
- Model probability
- 51.7%
- Market probability
- 43.8%
- Model vs market
- +7.9%
- Current price
- +130
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.8/10 and Los Angeles Dodgers is 7.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.1/10
- Model probability
- 50.1%
- Market probability
- 42.7%
- Model vs market
- +7.4%
- Current price
- +132
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Mets is 6.6/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 6.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.7/10
- Model probability
- 52.6%
- Market probability
- 54.1%
- Model vs market
- -1.6%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Texas Rangers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 6.6/10 versus 4.5/10, which adds late-game risk. Texas Rangers has used 21.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.7/10
- Model probability
- 58.9%
- Market probability
- 45.6%
- Model vs market
- +13.3%
- Current price
- +116
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago White Sox carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.8/10 versus 5.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Chicago White Sox has used 29.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
- Leo side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.2/10
- Model probability
- 50.7%
- Market probability
- 49.8%
- Model vs market
- +0.9%
- Current price
- -103
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cincinnati Reds is 6.9/10 and Washington Nationals is 7.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Brad Lord is expected to cover about 2.5 innings, leaving roughly 6.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.1/10 risk with 5.2/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Cincinnati Reds. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.5/10 for Cincinnati Reds versus 5.2/10 for Washington Nationals.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Brad Lord is expected to cover about 2.5 innings, leaving roughly 6.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.1/10 risk with 5.2/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Cincinnati Reds. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.5/10 for Cincinnati Reds versus 5.2/10 for Washington Nationals.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 -142
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.9/10
- Model probability
- 51.2%
- Market probability
- 56.8%
- Model vs market
- -5.6%
- Current price
- -137
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 6.5/10 and Atlanta Braves is 6.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Emerson Hancock Under 4.5 -127
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.3/10
- Model probability
- 56.4%
- Market probability
- 49.8%
- Model vs market
- +6.6%
- Current price
- -102
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Tampa Bay Rays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 10.0/10 versus 5.7/10, which adds late-game risk. Tampa Bay Rays has used 28.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.