Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Saturday, August 8, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
13
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
1
PASSES
13
Updated Aug 8, 5:56 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Gage Jump Over 5.5 +102
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.9/10
- Model probability
- 68.8%
- Market probability
- 70.5%
- Model vs market
- -1.8%
- Current price
- -250
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Boston Red Sox carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.8/10 versus 5.9/10, which adds late-game risk. Boston Red Sox has used 26.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBoston Red Sox is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 68.8% win probability, the market is at 70.5%, and the setup carries a 8.9/10 Lab Rating. Boston Red Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 24 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 7.7/10 and Athletics is 7.0/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 19.0 points from 87.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 68.8%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals
Official markets
Moneyline: Chicago Cubs -170
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.3/10
- Model probability
- 61.9%
- Market probability
- 59.8%
- Model vs market
- +2.1%
- Current price
- -160
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Chicago Cubs is 8.0/10 and Kansas City Royals is 8.2/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionChicago Cubs is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 61.9% chance to win, compared with the market's 59.8% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.3/10 Lab Rating. Chicago Cubs has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 19 rating points. Chicago Cubs has the lower-risk bullpen, 7.5/10 versus 9.2/10. Kansas City Royals has 25.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 4 back-to-back arms. Kansas City Royals's pen has been below average lately (3.1/10 efficiency). At -160, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.0/10
- Model probability
- 53.6%
- Market probability
- 44.1%
- Model vs market
- +9.5%
- Current price
- +122
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Mets is 6.3/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Taj Bradley Over 5.5 -151
Pitcher Ks: Robert Gasser Under 4.5 -107
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.7/10
- Model probability
- 58.0%
- Market probability
- 68.0%
- Model vs market
- -10.0%
- Current price
- -235
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 7.8/10 and Minnesota Twins is 6.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Andrew Alvarez Over 4.5 -120
- Leo side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.5/10
- Model probability
- 54.5%
- Market probability
- 55.3%
- Model vs market
- -0.8%
- Current price
- -129
- Pitcher edge
- Cincinnati Reds by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- Cincinnati Reds carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.1/10 versus 5.7/10, which adds late-game risk. Cincinnati Reds has used 23.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 53.2%
- Market probability
- 51.7%
- Model vs market
- +1.4%
- Current price
- -111
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers has the fresher bullpen, 4.7/10 versus 8.7/10. San Francisco Giants has used 26.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Detroit Tigers is using a bullpen game. Jackson Jobe is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.0/10 risk with 4.5/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.5/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 5.3/10 for San Francisco Giants.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Detroit Tigers is using a bullpen game. Jackson Jobe is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.0/10 risk with 4.5/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.5/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 5.3/10 for San Francisco Giants.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 -129
Pitcher Ks: Chris Sale Over 7.5 -155
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 53.3%
- Market probability
- 42.6%
- Model vs market
- +10.8%
- Current price
- +130
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Atlanta Braves carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.8/10 versus 5.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Atlanta Braves has used 21.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Sandy Alcantara Under 5.5 -111
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.7/10
- Model probability
- 56.3%
- Market probability
- 58.0%
- Model vs market
- -1.7%
- Current price
- -145
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Miami Marlins is 7.3/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 7.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael King Under 5.5 -155
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.6/10
- Model probability
- 51.9%
- Market probability
- 47.5%
- Model vs market
- +4.5%
- Current price
- +110
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 6.3/10 and San Diego Padres is 7.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 51.1%
- Market probability
- 54.8%
- Model vs market
- -3.7%
- Current price
- -124
- Pitcher edge
- Texas Rangers by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Texas Rangers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 6.9/10 versus 5.0/10, which adds late-game risk. Texas Rangers has used 21.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 -105
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.7/10
- Model probability
- 56.5%
- Market probability
- 60.0%
- Model vs market
- -3.5%
- Current price
- -160
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (St. Louis Cardinals 5.8/10, Colorado Rockies 5.9/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Aaron Nola Under 4.5 -115
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.5/10
- Model probability
- 52.4%
- Market probability
- 61.0%
- Model vs market
- -8.5%
- Current price
- -163
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Philadelphia Phillies is 8.6/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 9.4/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.2/10
- Model probability
- 52.8%
- Market probability
- 43.0%
- Model vs market
- +9.7%
- Current price
- +130
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.7/10 and Los Angeles Dodgers is 5.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Griffin Jax Under 5.5 -120
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.2/10
- Model probability
- 53.7%
- Market probability
- 47.9%
- Model vs market
- +5.8%
- Current price
- +107
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Tampa Bay Rays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 6.5/10 versus 4.5/10, which adds late-game risk. Tampa Bay Rays has used 22.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Gavin Williams Over 7.5 -138
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.8/10
- Model probability
- 53.8%
- Market probability
- 51.0%
- Model vs market
- +2.7%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago White Sox carries the heavier bullpen workload, 10.0/10 versus 6.7/10, which adds late-game risk. Chicago White Sox has used 34.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.