Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Friday, August 7, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
7
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
2
PASSES
13
Updated Aug 7, 6:07 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Payton Tolle Over 6.5 -132
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.6/10
- Model probability
- 68.3%
- Market probability
- 66.4%
- Model vs market
- +2.0%
- Current price
- -215
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 28 points
- Bullpen read
- Boston Red Sox carries the heavier bullpen workload, 10.0/10 versus 5.2/10, which adds late-game risk. Boston Red Sox has used 27.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBoston Red Sox is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 68.3% win probability, the market is at 66.4%, and the setup carries a 8.6/10 Lab Rating. Boston Red Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 28 rating points. Boston Red Sox carries the higher-risk bullpen, 9.1/10 versus 6.8/10. Recent context: 27.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Boston Red Sox's pen has been effective lately (6.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 19.1 points from 87.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 68.3%.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Shane Drohan Under 5.5 -132
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.1/10
- Model probability
- 60.7%
- Market probability
- 57.5%
- Model vs market
- +3.3%
- Current price
- -144
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.5/10 versus 5.2/10, which adds late-game risk. Milwaukee Brewers has used 24.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionMilwaukee Brewers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 60.7% win probability, the market is at 57.5%, and the setup carries a 7.1/10 Lab Rating. Milwaukee Brewers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 15 rating points. Milwaukee Brewers carries the higher-risk bullpen, 7.2/10 versus 5.4/10. Recent context: 24.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Milwaukee Brewers's pen has been dominant lately (7.6/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 11.8 points from 72.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 60.7%.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.9/10
- Model probability
- 54.5%
- Market probability
- 50.4%
- Model vs market
- +4.2%
- Current price
- -105
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 5.4/10 and San Francisco Giants is 6.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
San Francisco Giants is using a bullpen game. JT Brubaker is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.8/10 risk with 5.3/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Detroit Tigers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.4/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 5.3/10 for San Francisco Giants.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
San Francisco Giants is using a bullpen game. JT Brubaker is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.8/10 risk with 5.3/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Detroit Tigers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.4/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 5.3/10 for San Francisco Giants.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 -142
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.7/10
- Model probability
- 59.7%
- Market probability
- 60.2%
- Model vs market
- -0.5%
- Current price
- -160
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago Cubs carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.6/10 versus 5.0/10, which adds late-game risk. Chicago Cubs has used 23.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Kansas City Royals is using a bullpen game. Daniel Lynch IV is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.9/10 risk with 3.2/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Chicago Cubs. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.7/10 for Chicago Cubs versus 3.2/10 for Kansas City Royals.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Kansas City Royals is using a bullpen game. Daniel Lynch IV is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.9/10 risk with 3.2/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Chicago Cubs. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.7/10 for Chicago Cubs versus 3.2/10 for Kansas City Royals.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.2/10
- Model probability
- 53.5%
- Market probability
- 58.7%
- Model vs market
- -5.1%
- Current price
- -152
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 17 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Philadelphia Phillies is 9.9/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 9.9/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.8/10
- Model probability
- 52.9%
- Market probability
- 44.1%
- Model vs market
- +8.8%
- Current price
- +120
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Mets is 6.5/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 6.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.8/10
- Model probability
- 56.6%
- Market probability
- 46.3%
- Model vs market
- +10.2%
- Current price
- +110
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 34 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Chicago White Sox is 9.5/10 and Cleveland Guardians is 8.2/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kyle Leahy Over 4.5 -113
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.6/10
- Model probability
- 56.8%
- Market probability
- 58.8%
- Model vs market
- -2.0%
- Current price
- -152
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. St. Louis Cardinals is 5.7/10 and Colorado Rockies is 6.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.3/10
- Model probability
- 55.5%
- Market probability
- 59.1%
- Model vs market
- -3.6%
- Current price
- -155
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Angels by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Miami Marlins is 6.2/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 5.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Los Angeles Angels is using a bullpen game. George Klassen is expected to cover about 2.3 innings, leaving roughly 6.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.2/10 risk with 6.3/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Miami Marlins. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.2/10 for Miami Marlins versus 6.3/10 for Los Angeles Angels.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Los Angeles Angels is using a bullpen game. George Klassen is expected to cover about 2.3 innings, leaving roughly 6.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.2/10 risk with 6.3/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Miami Marlins. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.2/10 for Miami Marlins versus 6.3/10 for Los Angeles Angels.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Cade Cavalli Over 6.5 +118
- Leo side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.2/10
- Model probability
- 54.1%
- Market probability
- 56.6%
- Model vs market
- -2.5%
- Current price
- -135
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cincinnati Reds is 6.6/10 and Washington Nationals is 6.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.7/10
- Model probability
- 52.2%
- Market probability
- 39.5%
- Model vs market
- +12.7%
- Current price
- +150
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.3/10 and Los Angeles Dodgers is 6.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Max Fried Over 5.5 +125
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.0/10
- Model probability
- 50.3%
- Market probability
- 45.1%
- Model vs market
- +5.2%
- Current price
- +116
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 6.0/10 and Atlanta Braves is 6.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.8/10
- Model probability
- 51.7%
- Market probability
- 52.7%
- Model vs market
- -0.9%
- Current price
- -116
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 28 points
- Bullpen read
- San Diego Padres carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.1/10 versus 6.2/10, which adds late-game risk. San Diego Padres has used 35.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.3/10
- Model probability
- 54.5%
- Market probability
- 47.7%
- Model vs market
- +6.8%
- Current price
- +104
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Tampa Bay Rays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.9/10 versus 4.9/10, which adds late-game risk. Tampa Bay Rays has used 23.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Nathan Eovaldi Over 7.5 +112
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 1.8/10
- Model probability
- 51.4%
- Market probability
- 43.5%
- Model vs market
- +7.9%
- Current price
- +124
- Pitcher edge
- Texas Rangers by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Baltimore Orioles is 7.0/10 and Texas Rangers is 7.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.