Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Tuesday, July 28, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
16
OFFICIAL PICKS
7
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
3
PASSES
13
Updated Jul 28, 5:45 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 68.5%
- Market probability
- 57.4%
- Model vs market
- +11.2%
- Current price
- -148
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 28 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Los Angeles Dodgers 4.8/10, Seattle Mariners 5.0/10).
Why Leo made this decisionLos Angeles Dodgers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 68.5% win probability, the market is at 57.4%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. Los Angeles Dodgers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 28 rating points. Los Angeles Dodgers carries the higher-risk bullpen, 6.6/10 versus 4.4/10. Recent context: 6.0 relief innings over the last three days, 1 back-to-back arm. Los Angeles Dodgers's pen has been struggling lately (1.5/10 efficiency).
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution; limited sportsbook sample. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.8/10
- Model probability
- 64.4%
- Market probability
- 56.3%
- Model vs market
- +8.1%
- Current price
- -141
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 34 points
- Bullpen read
- San Diego Padres carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.6/10 versus 4.5/10, which adds late-game risk. San Diego Padres has used 10.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionSan Diego Padres is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 64.4% win probability, the market is at 56.3%, and the setup carries a 6.8/10 Lab Rating. San Diego Padres has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 34 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. San Diego Padres is 6.2/10 and Colorado Rockies is 6.7/10.
Risk notePrimary caution: limited sportsbook sample. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Chase Burns Under 6.5 -125
- Leo side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.6/10
- Model probability
- 62.5%
- Market probability
- 46.0%
- Model vs market
- +16.5%
- Current price
- +112
- Pitcher edge
- Cincinnati Reds by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Cincinnati Reds 4.9/10, Cleveland Guardians 4.2/10).
Why Leo made this decisionCincinnati Reds is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 62.5% win probability, the market is at 46.0%, and the setup carries a 6.6/10 Lab Rating. Cincinnati Reds has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 24 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Cincinnati Reds 3.5/10, Cleveland Guardians 3.4/10).
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Shane Bieber Under 4.5 -164
- Leo side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.3/10
- Model probability
- 77.2%
- Market probability
- 47.6%
- Model vs market
- +29.7%
- Current price
- +106
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Washington Nationals carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.0/10 versus 5.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Washington Nationals has used 14.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 1 back-to-back arm.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 68.7%
- Market probability
- 57.6%
- Model vs market
- +11.1%
- Current price
- -142
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 6.6/10 and Athletics is 7.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 63.1%
- Market probability
- 50.9%
- Model vs market
- +12.2%
- Current price
- -112
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago Cubs is 6.5/10 and St. Louis Cardinals is 5.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Dean Kremer Over 4.5 -140
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 53.4%
- Market probability
- 60.5%
- Model vs market
- -7.1%
- Current price
- -160
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 6.2/10 and Baltimore Orioles is 7.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 54.3%
- Market probability
- 59.2%
- Model vs market
- -4.9%
- Current price
- -153
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Atlanta Braves is 6.2/10 and New York Mets is 5.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 54.1%
- Market probability
- 40.7%
- Model vs market
- +13.4%
- Current price
- +136
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Miami Marlins is 7.1/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 8.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Griffin Jax Under 5.5 -121
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.7/10
- Model probability
- 62.2%
- Market probability
- 55.3%
- Model vs market
- +6.9%
- Current price
- -134
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 6.2/10 and Texas Rangers is 5.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Gavin Williams Over 7.5 -130
- Leo side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.2/10
- Model probability
- 51.9%
- Market probability
- 45.3%
- Model vs market
- +6.6%
- Current price
- +116
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Cincinnati Reds 4.9/10, Cleveland Guardians 4.2/10).
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Cincinnati Reds is using a bullpen game. Caleb Ferguson is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 3.5/10 risk with 7.9/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.9/10 for Cincinnati Reds versus 6.7/10 for Cleveland Guardians.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Cincinnati Reds is using a bullpen game. Caleb Ferguson is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 3.5/10 risk with 7.9/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.9/10 for Cincinnati Reds versus 6.7/10 for Cleveland Guardians.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.2/10
- Model probability
- 59.9%
- Market probability
- 51.9%
- Model vs market
- +7.9%
- Current price
- -112
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Milwaukee Brewers 4.9/10, San Francisco Giants 4.9/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.0/10
- Model probability
- 51.2%
- Market probability
- 62.0%
- Model vs market
- -10.8%
- Current price
- -181
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Minnesota Twins is 6.1/10 and Kansas City Royals is 5.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Game total: Over 7.5 -104
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.0/10
- Model probability
- 52.4%
- Market probability
- 56.7%
- Model vs market
- -4.3%
- Current price
- -138
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. New York Yankees is 8.2/10 and Chicago White Sox is 9.1/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Peter Lambert Over 5.5 +108
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.9/10
- Model probability
- 53.2%
- Market probability
- 53.6%
- Model vs market
- -0.4%
- Current price
- -126
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Houston Astros is 8.8/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 8.7/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.4/10
- Model probability
- 53.7%
- Market probability
- 44.8%
- Model vs market
- +8.9%
- Current price
- +118
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 5.9/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 6.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.