Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Monday, July 27, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
12
OFFICIAL PICKS
7
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
2
PASSES
10
Updated Jul 27, 8:59 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Andrew Alvarez Over 3.5 -104
- Leo side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.2/10
- Model probability
- 82.5%
- Market probability
- 56.0%
- Model vs market
- +26.5%
- Current price
- -133
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 21 points
- Bullpen read
- Washington Nationals carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.2/10 versus 4.4/10, which adds late-game risk. Washington Nationals has used 16.3 bullpen innings over the last three days with 1 back-to-back arm.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Toronto Blue Jays is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is Max Scherzer for about 3.1 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 5.9 innings. The pen carries 6.7/10 risk with 0.5/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Washington Nationals. Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is Eddy Yean for about 1.5 innings, Andrew Alvarez for about 5.0 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 2.5 innings. The pen carries 7.3/10 risk with 4.9/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.9/10 for Washington Nationals versus 0.5/10 for Toronto Blue Jays.
Washington Nationals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 82.5% win probability, the market is at 56.0%, and the setup carries a 7.2/10 Lab Rating. Washington Nationals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 21 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Washington Nationals is 7.3/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 6.7/10.
Toronto Blue Jays is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is Max Scherzer for about 3.1 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 5.9 innings. The pen carries 6.7/10 risk with 0.5/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Washington Nationals. Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is Eddy Yean for about 1.5 innings, Andrew Alvarez for about 5.0 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 2.5 innings. The pen carries 7.3/10 risk with 4.9/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.9/10 for Washington Nationals versus 0.5/10 for Toronto Blue Jays.
Washington Nationals is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 82.5% win probability, the market is at 56.0%, and the setup carries a 7.2/10 Lab Rating. Washington Nationals has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 21 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Washington Nationals is 7.3/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 6.7/10.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds
- Leo side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.1/10
- Model probability
- 64.6%
- Market probability
- 45.3%
- Model vs market
- +19.3%
- Current price
- +116
- Pitcher edge
- Cincinnati Reds by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Cincinnati Reds 5.0/10, Cleveland Guardians 4.5/10).
Why Leo made this decisionCincinnati Reds is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 64.6% win probability, the market is at 45.3%, and the setup carries a 7.1/10 Lab Rating. Cincinnati Reds has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 24 rating points. Cincinnati Reds has the lower-risk bullpen, 3.4/10 versus 5.4/10. Cleveland Guardians has 6.7 relief innings over the last three days, 2 back-to-back arms. Cleveland Guardians's pen has been below average lately (3.2/10 efficiency).
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Payton Tolle Over 5.5 -146
Pitcher Ks: Jack Perkins Over 4.5 -134
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.3/10
- Model probability
- 69.9%
- Market probability
- 57.8%
- Model vs market
- +12.1%
- Current price
- -144
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 30 points
- Bullpen read
- Boston Red Sox has the fresher bullpen, 6.6/10 versus 8.2/10. Athletics has used 17.7 bullpen innings over the last three days with 1 back-to-back arm.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Tyler Phillips Under 4.5 -170
Pitcher Ks: Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 -130
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.2/10
- Model probability
- 65.6%
- Market probability
- 50.0%
- Model vs market
- +15.6%
- Current price
- -105
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 30 points
- Bullpen read
- Philadelphia Phillies carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.1/10 versus 5.1/10, which adds late-game risk. Philadelphia Phillies has used 14.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Max Fried Over 5.5 +102
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.6/10
- Model probability
- 57.9%
- Market probability
- 56.0%
- Model vs market
- +1.9%
- Current price
- -134
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 35 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 5.8/10 and Chicago White Sox is 6.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Pass reasonModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.2/10
- Model probability
- 58.4%
- Market probability
- 54.3%
- Model vs market
- +4.2%
- Current price
- -124
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Seattle Mariners has the fresher bullpen, 4.6/10 versus 7.1/10. Texas Rangers has used 10.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 2 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 70.4%
- Market probability
- 52.9%
- Model vs market
- +17.5%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Chicago Cubs 5.0/10, St. Louis Cardinals 4.6/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Angels Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 52.2%
- Market probability
- 49.8%
- Model vs market
- +2.4%
- Current price
- -103
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Angels by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Angels is 7.1/10 and Houston Astros is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Houston Astros is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is Tatsuya Imai for about 5.5 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 3.5 innings. The pen carries 8.5/10 risk with 2.0/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Los Angeles Angels. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.2/10 for Los Angeles Angels versus 2.0/10 for Houston Astros.
Model and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Houston Astros is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is Tatsuya Imai for about 5.5 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 3.5 innings. The pen carries 8.5/10 risk with 2.0/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Los Angeles Angels. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.2/10 for Los Angeles Angels versus 2.0/10 for Houston Astros.
Model and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Pass reasonModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 63.0%
- Market probability
- 55.7%
- Model vs market
- +7.3%
- Current price
- -130
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Milwaukee Brewers 5.8/10, San Francisco Giants 5.0/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Official markets
Game total: Over 9 -102
- Leo side
- Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.3/10
- Model probability
- 57.0%
- Market probability
- 51.2%
- Model vs market
- +5.8%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Pittsburgh Pirates 5.0/10, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.0/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.0/10
- Model probability
- 57.1%
- Market probability
- 58.9%
- Model vs market
- -1.8%
- Current price
- -150
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Atlanta Braves carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.7/10 versus 5.5/10, which adds late-game risk. Atlanta Braves has used 14.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.7/10
- Model probability
- 54.9%
- Market probability
- 55.9%
- Model vs market
- -1.1%
- Current price
- -130
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 5.7/10 and Baltimore Orioles is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.