Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Sunday, July 26, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
12
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
2
PASSES
13
Updated Jul 26, 4:35 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 +100
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.1/10
- Model probability
- 77.3%
- Market probability
- 75.0%
- Model vs market
- +2.4%
- Current price
- -335
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 49 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Milwaukee Brewers 4.8/10, Colorado Rockies 5.7/10).
Why Leo made this decisionMilwaukee Brewers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 77.3% win probability, the market is at 75.0%, and the setup carries a 8.1/10 Lab Rating. Milwaukee Brewers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 49 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Milwaukee Brewers 3.8/10, Colorado Rockies 5.3/10).
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 +122
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.8/10
- Model probability
- 71.0%
- Market probability
- 56.8%
- Model vs market
- +14.3%
- Current price
- -139
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 6.3/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 5.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBoston Red Sox is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 71.0% win probability, the market is at 56.8%, and the setup carries a 6.8/10 Lab Rating. Boston Red Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 11 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 6.7/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 6.0/10.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 56.5%
- Market probability
- 51.3%
- Model vs market
- +5.1%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Arizona Diamondbacks has the fresher bullpen, 4.9/10 versus 6.5/10. Washington Nationals has used 11.3 bullpen innings over the last three days.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Connor Prielipp Over 4.5 +115
Pitcher Ks: Jeffrey Springs Over 3.5 -156
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.6/10
- Model probability
- 68.2%
- Market probability
- 58.9%
- Model vs market
- +9.4%
- Current price
- -150
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Minnesota Twins is 7.7/10 and Athletics is 6.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Freddy Peralta Under 5.5 -138
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.4/10
- Model probability
- 67.5%
- Market probability
- 57.5%
- Model vs market
- +10.0%
- Current price
- -141
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1/10, New York Mets 4.7/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 -130
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 51.7%
- Market probability
- 45.9%
- Model vs market
- +5.9%
- Current price
- +112
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Chicago Cubs 4.6/10, Pittsburgh Pirates 5.2/10).
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Parker Messick Over 4.5 -123
Pitcher Ks: Drew Rasmussen Over 4.5 -155
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 62.4%
- Market probability
- 53.2%
- Model vs market
- +9.2%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 6.3/10 and Cleveland Guardians is 6.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.8/10
- Model probability
- 54.6%
- Market probability
- 50.5%
- Model vs market
- +4.2%
- Current price
- -105
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Texas Rangers 5.3/10, Seattle Mariners 4.3/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants
Official markets
Game total: Under 8.5 -109
- Leo side
- San Francisco Giants Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 57.7%
- Market probability
- 49.5%
- Model vs market
- +8.2%
- Current price
- -102
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Angels by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- San Francisco Giants has the fresher bullpen, 5.2/10 versus 7.9/10. Los Angeles Angels has used 10.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.8/10
- Model probability
- 56.2%
- Market probability
- 49.3%
- Model vs market
- +6.9%
- Current price
- +100
- Pitcher edge
- Baltimore Orioles by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Baltimore Orioles has the fresher bullpen, 5.8/10 versus 7.8/10. Atlanta Braves has used 11.7 bullpen innings over the last three days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Official markets
Game total: Under 9 -105
Pitcher Ks: Luinder Avila Over 3.5 -154
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.8/10
- Model probability
- 57.3%
- Market probability
- 62.8%
- Model vs market
- -5.5%
- Current price
- -179
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 6.1/10 and Kansas City Royals is 5.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.5/10
- Model probability
- 59.4%
- Market probability
- 46.8%
- Model vs market
- +12.7%
- Current price
- +110
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- San Diego Padres carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.3/10 versus 4.6/10, which adds late-game risk. San Diego Padres has used 21.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.4/10
- Model probability
- 51.6%
- Market probability
- 55.0%
- Model vs market
- -3.4%
- Current price
- -129
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (St. Louis Cardinals 4.0/10, Cincinnati Reds 5.2/10).
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Game total: Over 9 +100
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.7/10
- Model probability
- 50.2%
- Market probability
- 50.8%
- Model vs market
- -0.6%
- Current price
- -108
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago White Sox has the fresher bullpen, 5.9/10 versus 8.3/10. Houston Astros has used 11.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.5/10
- Model probability
- 55.0%
- Market probability
- 35.9%
- Model vs market
- +19.1%
- Current price
- +175
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Yankees has the fresher bullpen, 5.2/10 versus 8.3/10. Philadelphia Phillies has used 11.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 2 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.