Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Friday, July 24, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
10
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
2
WATCHLIST
3
PASSES
9
Updated Jul 24, 2:27 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Official markets
Moneyline: Milwaukee Brewers -230
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.5/10
- Model probability
- 79.7%
- Market probability
- 67.9%
- Model vs market
- +11.8%
- Current price
- -230
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers has the fresher bullpen, 5.8/10 versus 7.6/10. Colorado Rockies has used 9.3 bullpen innings over the last three days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionMilwaukee Brewers is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 79.7% chance to win, compared with the market's 67.9% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.5/10 Lab Rating. Milwaukee Brewers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 14 rating points. Milwaukee Brewers has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.8/10 versus 8.6/10. Colorado Rockies has 9.3 relief innings over the last three days, 4 back-to-back arms. Colorado Rockies's pen has been below average lately (3.0/10 efficiency). At -230, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.0/10
- Model probability
- 57.2%
- Market probability
- 45.9%
- Model vs market
- +11.3%
- Current price
- +116
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 6.7/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 5.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Yankees grades as a strong value setup with 57.2% model win probability against a 45.9% market number and a 8.0/10 Lab Rating. New York Yankees has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 13 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 5.9/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 6.5/10. It stayed a value watch because model win probability is 57.2%, below the 72.0% official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.8/10
- Model probability
- 62.6%
- Market probability
- 51.9%
- Model vs market
- +10.7%
- Current price
- -113
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Baltimore Orioles has the fresher bullpen, 3.9/10 versus 7.1/10. Atlanta Braves has used 12.7 bullpen innings over the last three days with 2 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Baltimore Orioles is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is Trevor Rogers for about 5.0 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 4.0 innings. The pen carries 2.3/10 risk with 8.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 8.2/10 for Baltimore Orioles versus 2.4/10 for Atlanta Braves.
Baltimore Orioles grades as a strong value setup with 62.6% model win probability against a 51.9% market number and a 7.8/10 Lab Rating. The starting pitching matchup does not create a clear advantage. Baltimore Orioles has the lower-risk bullpen, 2.3/10 versus 8.4/10. Atlanta Braves has 12.7 relief innings over the last three days, 2 back-to-back arms. Atlanta Braves's pen has been struggling lately (2.4/10 efficiency). It stayed a value watch because model win probability is 62.6%, below the 72.0% official-pick gate; and Lab Rating is 7.8/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate.
Baltimore Orioles is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is Trevor Rogers for about 5.0 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 4.0 innings. The pen carries 2.3/10 risk with 8.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 8.2/10 for Baltimore Orioles versus 2.4/10 for Atlanta Braves.
Baltimore Orioles grades as a strong value setup with 62.6% model win probability against a 51.9% market number and a 7.8/10 Lab Rating. The starting pitching matchup does not create a clear advantage. Baltimore Orioles has the lower-risk bullpen, 2.3/10 versus 8.4/10. Atlanta Braves has 12.7 relief innings over the last three days, 2 back-to-back arms. Atlanta Braves's pen has been struggling lately (2.4/10 efficiency). It stayed a value watch because model win probability is 62.6%, below the 72.0% official-pick gate; and Lab Rating is 7.8/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.3/10
- Model probability
- 68.1%
- Market probability
- 55.6%
- Model vs market
- +12.5%
- Current price
- -131
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Chicago White Sox 5.7/10, Houston Astros 5.2/10).
Why Leo made this decisionChicago White Sox is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 68.1% win probability, the market is at 55.6%, and the setup carries a 7.3/10 Lab Rating. Chicago White Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 10 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Chicago White Sox 5.8/10, Houston Astros 4.5/10).
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.1/10
- Model probability
- 61.2%
- Market probability
- 55.4%
- Model vs market
- +5.8%
- Current price
- -136
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Miami Marlins has the fresher bullpen, 4.1/10 versus 7.9/10. San Diego Padres has used 13.3 bullpen innings over the last three days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionMiami Marlins is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 61.2% win probability, the market is at 55.4%, and the setup carries a 7.1/10 Lab Rating. Miami Marlins has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 8 rating points. Miami Marlins has the lower-risk bullpen, 3.7/10 versus 9.5/10. San Diego Padres has 13.3 relief innings over the last three days, 3 back-to-back arms. San Diego Padres's pen has been struggling lately (1.9/10 efficiency).
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.8/10
- Model probability
- 74.5%
- Market probability
- 53.4%
- Model vs market
- +21.1%
- Current price
- -122
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- Boston Red Sox has the fresher bullpen, 6.4/10 versus 8.9/10. Toronto Blue Jays has used 16.7 bullpen innings over the last three days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBoston Red Sox is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 74.5% win probability, the market is at 53.4%, and the setup carries a 6.8/10 Lab Rating. Toronto Blue Jays has the starting pitcher advantage by 19 rating points, which works against Leo's side. Boston Red Sox has the lower-risk bullpen, 6.3/10 versus 9.1/10. Toronto Blue Jays has 16.7 relief innings over the last three days, 4 back-to-back arms. Toronto Blue Jays's pen has been average lately (4.6/10 efficiency).
Risk notePrimary caution: starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Shane McClanahan Under 5.5 -113
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.3/10
- Model probability
- 60.4%
- Market probability
- 55.7%
- Model vs market
- +4.7%
- Current price
- -134
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 6.0/10 and Cleveland Guardians is 7.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Game total: Over 9.5 -102
- Leo side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.4/10
- Model probability
- 52.9%
- Market probability
- 47.1%
- Model vs market
- +5.9%
- Current price
- +109
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Washington Nationals is 6.4/10 and Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is Carson Palmquist for about 1.5 innings, Zack Littell for about 5.0 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 2.5 innings. The pen carries 7.4/10 risk with 3.1/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 3.1/10 for Washington Nationals versus 2.6/10 for Arizona Diamondbacks.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is Carson Palmquist for about 1.5 innings, Zack Littell for about 5.0 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 2.5 innings. The pen carries 7.4/10 risk with 3.1/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 3.1/10 for Washington Nationals versus 2.6/10 for Arizona Diamondbacks.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jacob Lopez Under 4.5 -154
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.2/10
- Model probability
- 59.5%
- Market probability
- 56.6%
- Model vs market
- +2.9%
- Current price
- -138
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Minnesota Twins carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.0/10 versus 6.4/10, which adds late-game risk. Minnesota Twins has used 15.7 bullpen innings over the last three days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Pass reasonModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Official markets
Game total: Over 8 -113
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 50.0%
- Market probability
- 46.9%
- Model vs market
- +3.2%
- Current price
- +109
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Chicago Cubs 4.9/10, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.9/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Bryce Miller Over 5.5 -142
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 50.5%
- Market probability
- 52.2%
- Model vs market
- -1.7%
- Current price
- -115
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Seattle Mariners has the fresher bullpen, 4.7/10 versus 7.4/10. Texas Rangers has used 12.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants
Official markets
Game total: Under 8 -113
- Leo side
- San Francisco Giants Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.3/10
- Model probability
- 53.7%
- Market probability
- 60.9%
- Model vs market
- -7.2%
- Current price
- -165
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 39 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. San Francisco Giants is 6.4/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 5.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.2/10
- Model probability
- 56.8%
- Market probability
- 59.9%
- Model vs market
- -3.1%
- Current price
- -160
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (St. Louis Cardinals 4.9/10, Cincinnati Reds 5.5/10).
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 +118
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.1/10
- Model probability
- 61.7%
- Market probability
- 71.5%
- Model vs market
- -9.7%
- Current price
- -275
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 31 points
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.8/10 versus 5.4/10, which adds late-game risk. Detroit Tigers has used 15.7 bullpen innings over the last three days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Kansas City Royals is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is Beck Way for about 2.0 innings, Noah Cameron for about 5.0 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 2.0 innings. The pen carries 5.9/10 risk with 4.0/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Detroit Tigers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 2.6/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 4.0/10 for Kansas City Royals.
Market is higher than Leo's model probability.
Kansas City Royals is using a bullpen game. The reported allocation is Beck Way for about 2.0 innings, Noah Cameron for about 5.0 innings, the remaining bullpen for about 2.0 innings. The pen carries 5.9/10 risk with 4.0/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Detroit Tigers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 2.6/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 4.0/10 for Kansas City Royals.
Market is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Roki Sasaki Under 5.5 -159
Pitcher Ks: Sean Manaea Under 5.5 -150
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.4/10
- Model probability
- 57.2%
- Market probability
- 57.5%
- Model vs market
- -0.3%
- Current price
- -142
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1/10, New York Mets 4.8/10).
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.