MLB matchup analysis
Rays vs Guardians Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at Progressive Field · 1:00 PM ET
Leo prediction: Cleveland Guardians moneyline
The case for Cleveland Guardians
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Cleveland Guardians remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 8.2/10: conviction 1.31, pitching plan 30.67, offense 50. Leo projects 57.6% against a 70.6% no-vig market number, a -13.0% model edge at -262. The starting pitcher matchup does not create a meaningful separation. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. Cleveland Guardians's pen efficiency: Effective (6.9/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 6.0 points from 63.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 57.6%.
Final result
Rays 2, Guardians 3
How the analysis held up
Cleveland Guardians won, the side Leo's model favored.
Griffin Jax (No clear pitching-plan edge) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Gavin Williams actually pitched better tonight: 5.0 IP, 2 ER (3.60 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 3 ER (6.75 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 4.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Cleveland Guardians bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Game information
| Matchup | Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, October 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Progressive Field |
| Starting pitchers | Griffin Jax vs Gavin Williams |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 63°F, 14% precipitation chance, 1 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rays | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 71 | 73 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.53 | 3.76 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.3 | 12.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 17.6% | 25.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 25.3% | 33.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.6% | 8.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.2% | 50.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 48.8% | 49.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Gavin Williams a 2-point edge over Griffin Jax, driven mainly by K/9 (12.1 vs 9.3) and expected innings (5.8 vs 4.5).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rays are 5-5 in their last 10; Guardians are 8-2 in their last 10. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.53 against +0.07).
| Metric | Rays | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | Not available | Not available |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | Not available | Not available |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | Not available | Not available |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | Not available | Not available |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rays | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.636 (-0.092 vs szn) | 0.811 (+0.115 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.15 (-0.389 vs szn) | 5.45 (+1.269 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.285 (-0.036 vs szn) | 0.353 (+0.043 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.9% (+5.1% vs szn) | 15.8% (-4.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Guardians have been the better offense, 0.353 wOBA to 0.285. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.043 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rays | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 98-64 | 85-77 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.53 | +0.07 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.54 | 4.19 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.01 | 4.12 |
| Season OPS | 0.728 | 0.696 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 18.8% | 20.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.752 | 0.706 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rays | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.7/10, Normal | 5.8/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 2.0/10, Struggling | 6.9/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.2/10, Tired | 4.9/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 6.0 | 18.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 2 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.67 | 0.94 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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