MLB matchup analysis
Dodgers vs Brewers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at American Family Field · 8:00 PM ET
Leo prediction: Milwaukee Brewers moneyline
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Milwaukee Brewers is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 62.1% model win probability and 7.3/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 62.1% against a 49.4% no-vig market number, a 12.7% model edge at +100. The starting pitcher matchup does not create a meaningful separation. Bullpen read: Neutral. Milwaukee Brewers's pen efficiency: Dominant (7.9/10). Lineup check: Milwaukee Brewers is a touch above its season form (+0.033 OPS); Los Angeles Dodgers is a touch below its season form (-0.038 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Dodgers 1, Brewers 2
How the analysis held up
Milwaukee Brewers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Tarik Skubal (No clear pitching-plan edge) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Jacob Misiorowski actually pitched better tonight: 4.1 IP, 1 ER (2.08 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 2 ER (3.60 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 4.2 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Los Angeles Dodgers scored 1, 2.7 fewer than the 3.7 pregame projection.
Milwaukee Brewers scored 2, 2.2 fewer than the 4.2 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:00 PM ET |
| Venue | American Family Field |
| Starting pitchers | Tarik Skubal vs Jacob Misiorowski |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 67°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from SE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Dodgers | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 83 | 85 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.72 | 1.80 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.96 | 0.80 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.6 | 13.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 25.6% | 31.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 30.0% | 37.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 4.4% | 6.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.9% | 47.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 47.1% | 52.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Jacob Misiorowski a 2-point edge over Tarik Skubal, driven mainly by K/9 (13.0 vs 10.6) and K-BB% (31.3% vs 25.6%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+1.24 against +1.32).
| Metric | Dodgers | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 8-2 on the road | 9-1 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.724 | 0.777 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.315 | 0.344 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.5% | 24.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Dodgers | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.792 (+0.030 vs szn) | 0.779 (+0.035 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.56 (-0.382 vs szn) | 6.00 (+0.864 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.349 (+0.014 vs szn) | 0.343 (+0.014 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.1% (-2.3% vs szn) | 24.9% (+3.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Dodgers have been the better offense, 0.349 wOBA to 0.343. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.014 wOBA). Brewers are striking out at 24.9% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Dodgers | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 100-62 | 103-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.24 | +1.32 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.94 | 5.14 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.70 | 3.81 |
| Season OPS | 0.762 | 0.744 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.4% | 22.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.766 | 0.706 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Dodgers | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.5/10, Normal | 5.6/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 7.3/10, Effective | 7.9/10, Dominant |
| Combined risk | 4.4/10, Normal | 4.2/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 11.7 | 14.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.54 | 0.64 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.86 | 0.79 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.2 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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