MLB matchup analysis
Cardinals vs Giants Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at Oracle Park · 9:45 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Cardinals vs Giants
The case for San Francisco Giants
The case for St. Louis Cardinals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Cardinals 1, Giants 2
How the analysis held up
San Francisco Giants won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 50.8 points — the team-strength model favored San Francisco Giants, the run-projection model favored St. Louis Cardinals. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Landen Roupp (San Francisco Giants), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Quinn Mathews: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 2 ER (3.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The San Francisco Giants bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 3.0 innings (3.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
St. Louis Cardinals scored 1, 5.4 fewer than the 6.4 pregame projection.
San Francisco Giants scored 2, 3 fewer than the 5 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 8, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:45 PM ET |
| Venue | Oracle Park |
| Starting pitchers | Quinn Mathews vs Landen Roupp |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 74°F, 0% precipitation chance, 11 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 50 | 62 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.38 | 4.17 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.58 | 1.29 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.8 | 8.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.7% | 11.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.4% | 22.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.7% | 11.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.7% | 57.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 58.3% | 42.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Landen Roupp a 12-point edge over Quinn Mathews, driven mainly by WHIP (1.29 vs 1.58) and expected innings (5.4 vs 4.9).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Cardinals are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Giants are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Cardinals carry the better run differential per game (-0.08 against -0.50).
| Metric | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.751 | 0.771 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.328 | 0.338 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.9% | 21.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.730 (+0.028 vs szn) | 0.708 (-0.008 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.31 (+0.776 vs szn) | 4.34 (+0.167 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.322 (+0.011 vs szn) | 0.313 |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.0% (+1.3% vs szn) | 23.0% (+1.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cardinals have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.313. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.011 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 72-73 | 60-85 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.08 | -0.50 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.53 | 4.18 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.61 | 4.68 |
| Season OPS | 0.704 | 0.716 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.7% | 21.3% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.698 | 0.673 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cardinals and Giants are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 10.0/10, High risk | 7.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.5/10, Below average | 2.1/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 10.0/10, High risk | 9.2/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 35.0 | 32.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 9 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.66 | 7.44 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.69 | 1.96 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.3 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.