Week 2 · Sunday 16:25

WASWAS at DALDAL

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf · Division game

WAS moneyline+180
DAL moneyline-218
SpreadDAL -3.5
Total51.5

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceDAL 58%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total51.1points, both teams
Leo marginDAL by 2.7expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Dak Prescott DAL QB1 6.434.611 224
Jayden Daniels WAS QB1 5.830.411 186

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS RB1 4.313.11.11 64
Javonte Williams DAL RB1 4.113.911 62
Rachaad White WAS RB2 4.37.41.11 37
Emari Demercado DAL RB2 52.811 18

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Antonio Williams WAS WR3 16411 65
CeeDee Lamb DAL WR1 7.38.511 62
Stefon Diggs WAS WR1 7.57.411 57
George Pickens DAL WR2 7.5711 53
Terry McLaurin WAS WR2 7.3511 38
Ryan Flournoy DAL WR3 5.83.911 23
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

WAS This season DAL
48 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 65
49 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 60
34 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 24
42 Overall 42
QB 46 · OFF 48 · DEF 34 Last season QB 63 · OFF 60 · DEF 27

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

WAS Per game, this season DAL
0.00Interceptions thrown1.00
0.00Interceptions caught0.00
0.00Fumbles lost0.00
0.00Fumbles forced4.00
0.00Takeaways4.00
0.00Giveaways1.00
0Net turnover margin+3

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

WAS Offense DAL
+0.014EPA per dropback+0.202
-0.2Completion % over expected+3.3
2.0%Interception rate2.1%
6.4%Sack rate taken3.8%
+0.009Rush EPA per carry-0.004
4.4%Explosive play rate4.9%
WAS Defense DAL
+0.123EPA allowed per play+0.195
6.28Yards allowed per play6.27
4.2%Sack rate3.2%
0.6%Interception rate forced0.5%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is WAS, right is DAL.

WAS This season DAL
1Games1
164Pass yards/g175
132Rush yards/g69
2Passing TD2
0Interceptions thrown1
203Pass yards allowed/g230
136Rush yards allowed/g165
0Interceptions forced0
WAS Last season DAL
195.8Pass yards/g278.5
134.7Rush yards/g125.6
19Passing TD31
12Interceptions thrown12
257.1Pass yards allowed/g265.9
141.8Rush yards allowed/g125.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

WAS 2026

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jayden Daniels118/34 52.9%164164 2 / 04.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt116 633.91
Rachaad White17 223.10

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Stefon Diggs WR11 4/944.4%55 551
Terry McLaurin WR21 2/450%14 140
John Bates TE1 2/366.7%13 130
DAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB65

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott122/34 64.7%175175 2 / 15.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams112 413.41
Emari Demercado12 73.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
CeeDee Lamb WR11 5/862.5%44 441
George Pickens WR21 3/650%28 280
Jake Ferguson TE1 2/2100%6 60

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

WAS 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Marcus Mariota10139/227 61.2%1695169.5 10 / 77.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt17175 8054.68
Chris Rodriguez Jr.12112 5004.56

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR116 72/9972.7%727 45.45
Terry McLaurin WR210 38/6063.3%582 58.23
Zach Ertz TE13 50/7269.4%504 38.84
DAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott17404/600 67.3%4552267.8 30 / 107.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams16252 12014.811
Malik Davis1052 2504.82

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
George Pickens WR117 93/13767.9%1429 84.19
CeeDee Lamb WR213 75/11764.1%1077 82.83
Jake Ferguson TE17 82/10280.4%600 35.38

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

WAS 2026
  1. Stefon Diggs WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec
  2. Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB 1 1 rush · 0 rec
  3. Antonio Williams WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec
DAL 2026
  1. Javonte Williams RB 2 1 rush · 1 rec
  2. CeeDee Lamb WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec

Final result

WAS 20 – 37 DAL

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerDAL 58%—DAL wonRIGHT
Total points51.150.557no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginDAL by 2.7DAL −4.5DAL by 17WAS +4.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jayden Daniels WAS 221.5186 UNDER 96 90 Fewer attempts (17 vs 30.4 expected) RIGHT
Dak Prescott DAL 266.5224 UNDER 279 55 More efficient (9 vs 6.4 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Javonte Williams DAL 77.562 UNDER 30 32 Less efficient (2.5 vs 4.1 yds/carry) RIGHT
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS 50.564 OVER 43 21 Less efficient (3.6 vs 4.3 yds/carry) WRONG
Emari Demercado DAL 11.518 OVER 8 10 Less efficient (2.7 vs 5 yds/carry) WRONG
Rachaad White WAS 22.537 OVER 43 6 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
CeeDee Lamb DAL 75.562 UNDER 153 91 More efficient (17 vs 7.3 yds/tgt) WRONG
Antonio Williams WAS 26.565 OVER 24 41 Less efficient (8 vs 16 yds/tgt) WRONG
George Pickens DAL 66.553 UNDER 40 13 Less efficient (5 vs 7.5 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Terry McLaurin WAS 53.538 UNDER 50 12 More targets (9 vs 5 expected) RIGHT
Stefon Diggs WAS 49.557 OVER 47 10 Fewer targets (6 vs 7.4 expected) WRONG
Ryan Flournoy DAL 28.523 UNDER 23 0 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.