Frozen pre-kickoff inputs, real results.

NFL Model Tuner

Move a setting and every projection is rebuilt from the exact inputs Leo used before kickoff, then graded against what happened. Brown is Leo as shipped; blue is your settings. It reads the live grading files, so each new week lands here on its own.

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Player projection = rate × volume × opponent adjustment + calibration. Win probability = normal CDF of expected margin ÷ margin spread, where expected margin = rating gap × strength + home-field. Lines are the last price before kickoff. Nothing here changes the live model — copy the settings box to ask for a change to be tested properly.