Week 3 · Sunday 13:00

TENTEN at NYGNYG

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

TEN moneyline+110
NYG moneyline-130
SpreadNYG -2.5
Total37.5

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 27, 8:07 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceNYG 55%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total44points, both teams
Leo marginNYG by 7.2expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Jameis Winston NYG QB1 6.23011 181
Cam Ward TEN QB1 629.812 177

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Tony Pollard TEN RB1 4.512.412 60
Cam Skattebo NYG RB1 3.713.812 55
Tyjae Spears TEN RB2 4.45.312 27
Devin Singletary NYG RB2 3.15.812 21

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN WR2 7.36.712 49
Elic Ayomanor TEN WR3 9.94.512 45
Darnell Mooney NYG WR3 11.33.912 43
Malik Nabers NYG WR1 5.47.712 41
Carnell Tate TEN WR1 5.96.812 40
Malachi Fields NYG WR2 5.64.912 27
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

TEN This season NYG
34 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 46
39 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 49
37 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 33
38 Overall 41
QB 31 · OFF 32 · DEF 37 Last season QB 47 · OFF 53 · DEF 39

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

TEN Per game, this season NYG
0.00Interceptions thrown0.50
1.00Interceptions caught1.00
0.00Fumbles lost0.50
0.00Fumbles forced1.00
1.00Takeaways2.00
0.00Giveaways1.00
+1Net turnover margin+1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

TEN Offense NYG
-0.185EPA per dropback+0.030
-1.4Completion % over expected-2.4
0.9%Interception rate1.8%
8.9%Sack rate taken7.6%
-0.002Rush EPA per carry-0.019
5.1%Explosive play rate4.4%
TEN Defense NYG
+0.088EPA allowed per play+0.121
5.85Yards allowed per play6.22
3.5%Sack rate2.7%
0.9%Interception rate forced1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is TEN, right is NYG.

TEN This season NYG
2Games2
161.5Pass yards/g180.5
95Rush yards/g108.5
1Passing TD3
0Interceptions thrown1
239.5Pass yards allowed/g251
120.5Rush yards allowed/g116
2Interceptions forced2
TEN Last season NYG
190.6Pass yards/g217.8
93.5Rush yards/g129.1
15Passing TD21
8Interceptions thrown10
248.3Pass yards allowed/g229.9
114.6Rush yards allowed/g145.3

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

TEN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB34

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Cam Ward232/52 61.5%323161.5 1 / 06.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tony Pollard221 994.70
Tyjae Spears210 535.30

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Carnell Tate WR12 7/1163.6%65 32.50
Wan'Dale Robinson WR22 6/785.7%47 23.50
Gunnar Helm TE2 6/785.7%41 20.50
NYG 2026

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jaxson Dart226/34 76.5%250125 3 / 07.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Cam Skattebo230 1173.91
Devin Singletary29 252.80

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Malik Nabers WR12 7/1353.8%70 350
Malachi Fields WR22 4/1040%55 27.50
Isaiah Likely TE2 13/1872.2%111 55.52

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

TEN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Cam Ward17323/540 59.8%3169186.4 15 / 75.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tony Pollard17242 10824.55
Tyjae Spears1372 2833.92

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Elic Ayomanor WR116 41/8946.1%515 32.24
Chimere Dike WR217 48/7464.9%423 24.94
Chig Okonkwo TE17 56/7970.9%560 32.92
NYG 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jaxson Dart14216/339 63.7%2272162.3 15 / 56.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.15176 7404.22
Devin Singletary17119 4373.75

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Wan'Dale Robinson WR116 92/14065.7%1014 63.44
Darius Slayton WR214 37/6358.7%538 38.41
Theo Johnson TE15 45/7460.8%528 35.25

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Cam Skattebo (NYG, 41%) and Elic Ayomanor (TEN, 30%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
TEN Leo’s chance
  1. Elic Ayomanor WR3 30% no TD
  2. Tony Pollard RB1 19% no TD
  3. Carnell Tate WR1 19% no TD
NYG Leo’s chance
  1. Cam Skattebo RB1 41% no TD
  2. Malik Nabers WR1 23% no TD
  3. Devin Singletary RB2 19% no TD

Final result

TEN 7 – 12 NYG

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

TEN
Cam Ward QB 23/36181 yds1 TD1 INT
Tony Pollard RB 17 car74 yds0 TD4 rec, 22 yds
Tyjae Spears RB 3 car5 yds0 TD
Carnell Tate WR 6/958 yds0 TD
Wan'Dale Robinson WR 7/1157 yds1 TD
Tony Pollard RB 4/422 yds0 TD
NYG
Jameis Winston QB 14/22118 yds0 TD0 INT
Cam Skattebo RB 20 car60 yds0 TD3 rec, 40 yds
Najee Harris RB 9 car52 yds0 TD
Darnell Mooney WR 1 car9 yds0 TD2 rec, 20 yds
Cam Skattebo RB 3/440 yds0 TD
Malik Nabers WR 5/626 yds0 TD
Darnell Mooney WR 2/320 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerNYG 55%—NYG wonNO PICK
Total points4437.519OVER · WRONG
MarginNYG by 7.2NYG −2.5NYG by 5NYG −2.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jameis Winston NYG 200.5181 UNDER 118 63 Fewer attempts (22 vs 30 expected) RIGHT
Cam Ward TEN 175.5177 no side 181 4 On target NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tyjae Spears TEN 18.527 OVER 5 22 Fewer carries (3 vs 5.3 expected) WRONG
Tony Pollard TEN 61.560 no side 74 14 More carries (17 vs 12.4 expected) NO LEAN
Cam Skattebo NYG 57.555 no side 60 5 On target NO LEAN

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Elic Ayomanor TEN 13.545 OVER 11 34 Less efficient (3.7 vs 9.9 yds/tgt) WRONG
Darnell Mooney NYG 17.543 OVER 20 23 Less efficient (6.7 vs 11.3 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Carnell Tate TEN 38.540 no side 58 18 More targets (9 vs 6.8 expected) NO LEAN
Malik Nabers NYG 54.541 UNDER 26 15 Fewer targets (6 vs 7.7 expected) RIGHT
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN 30.549 OVER 57 8 On target RIGHT
Malachi Fields NYG 22.527 OVER 19 8 On target WRONG

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.