Week 2 · Sunday 16:25

SEASEA at ARIARI

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass · Division game

SEA moneyline-218
ARI moneyline+180
SpreadSEA -3.5
Total40.5

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceSEA 72%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total45.1points, both teams
Leo marginSEA by 7.5expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Jacoby Brissett ARI QB1 6.735.811 240
Drew Lock SEA QB1 5.111.511 66

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jadarian Price SEA RB1 5.2100.91 52
Tyler Allgeier ARI RB1 3.612.711 48
Jeremiyah Love ARI RB2 3.71111 44
George Holani SEA RB2 2.55.10.91 16

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR1 10.910.211 111
Michael Wilson ARI WR2 7.87.211 55
Kendrick Bourne ARI WR1 9.45.811 53
Cooper Kupp SEA WR2 113.911 44
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI WR3 9.84.511 44
Rashid Shaheed SEA WR3 4.13.911 17
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

SEA This season ARI
62 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 53
58 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 51
73 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 48
66 Overall 50
QB 62 · OFF 58 · DEF 69 Last season QB 50 · OFF 47 · DEF 39

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

SEA Per game, this season ARI
0.00Interceptions thrown0.00
3.00Interceptions caught1.00
0.00Fumbles lost0.00
0.00Fumbles forced1.00
3.00Takeaways2.00
0.00Giveaways0.00
+3Net turnover margin+2

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

SEA Offense ARI
+0.155EPA per dropback+0.053
+3.9Completion % over expected+1.9
2.1%Interception rate1.4%
5.9%Sack rate taken7.2%
-0.065Rush EPA per carry-0.051
6.8%Explosive play rate4.8%
SEA Defense ARI
-0.114EPA allowed per play+0.017
4.89Yards allowed per play5.75
4.5%Sack rate3.4%
2.2%Interception rate forced1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is SEA, right is ARI.

SEA This season ARI
1Games1
200Pass yards/g277
97Rush yards/g116
1Passing TD1
0Interceptions thrown0
178Pass yards allowed/g209
109Rush yards allowed/g81
3Interceptions forced1
SEA Last season ARI
236.8Pass yards/g256.1
124.4Rush yards/g93.1
30Passing TD29
15Interceptions thrown11
221.6Pass yards allowed/g242.8
93.2Rush yards allowed/g126.9

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

SEA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB62

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drew Lock116/22 72.7%187187 1 / 08.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jadarian Price110 525.20
George Holani18 293.60

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR11 8/1172.7%122 1221
Cooper Kupp WR21 2/366.7%35 350
AJ Barner TE1 2/2100%13 130
ARI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB53

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jacoby Brissett127/37 73%277277 1 / 07.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tyler Allgeier117 613.60
Jeremiyah Love111 413.71

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Kendrick Bourne WR11 8/8100%75 750
Michael Wilson WR21 5/771.4%56 560
Trey McBride TE1 9/1369.2%95 951

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

SEA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB62

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Sam Darnold20379/568 66.7%4720236 30 / 148.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kenneth Walker III20286 13404.79
Zach Charbonnet17189 750412

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR120 136/18972%1992 99.612
Cooper Kupp WR219 62/9366.7%750 39.53
AJ Barner TE20 58/7577.3%586 29.37
ARI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB50

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jacoby Brissett14315/485 64.9%3366240.4 23 / 86.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Michael Carter1392 3333.61
Bam Knight1282 2693.34

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Wilson WR117 78/12661.9%1006 59.27
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR212 41/7356.2%608 50.74
Trey McBride TE17 126/16974.6%1239 72.911

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

SEA 2026
  1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec
ARI 2026
  1. Trey McBride TE 1 0 rush · 1 rec
  2. Jeremiyah Love RB 1 1 rush · 0 rec

Final result

SEA 31 – 7 ARI

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerSEA 72%—SEA wonRIGHT
Total points45.140.538OVER · WRONG
MarginSEA by 7.5SEA −3.5SEA by 24SEA −3.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Drew Lock SEA 207.566 UNDER 235 169 More efficient (9 vs 5.1 yds/att) WRONG
Jacoby Brissett ARI 216.5240 OVER 95 145 Less efficient (3.4 vs 6.7 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tyler Allgeier ARI 34.548 OVER 10 38 Fewer carries (5 vs 12.7 expected) WRONG
Jeremiyah Love ARI 36.544 OVER 29 15 Fewer carries (9 vs 11 expected) WRONG
George Holani SEA 29.516 UNDER 13 3 On target RIGHT
Jadarian Price SEA 60.552 UNDER 52 0 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 81.5111 OVER 155 44 More efficient (14.1 vs 10.9 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI 36.544 OVER 0 44 Fewer targets (1 vs 4.5 expected) WRONG
Kendrick Bourne ARI 24.553 OVER 11 42 Fewer targets (3 vs 5.8 expected) WRONG
Michael Wilson ARI 37.555 OVER 18 37 Less efficient (2.6 vs 7.8 yds/tgt) WRONG
Cooper Kupp SEA 23.544 OVER 20 24 Fewer targets (2 vs 3.9 expected) WRONG
Rashid Shaheed SEA 23.517 UNDER 35 18 More efficient (5.8 vs 4.1 yds/tgt) WRONG

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.