Week 2 · Sunday 13:00

PITPIT at NENE

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

PIT moneyline+185
NE moneyline-225
SpreadNE -4.5
Total41.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceNE 69%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total42.7points, both teams
Leo marginNE by 6.6expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Aaron Rodgers PIT QB1 6.135.611 221
Drake Maye NE QB1 7.131.10.91 213

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB1 3.814.211 57
Jaylen Warren PIT RB1 4.511.611 54
Rico Dowdle PIT RB2 310.711 34
Corey Kiner NE RB2 3.14.511 17

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Michael Pittman PIT WR3 13.14.811 62
DK Metcalf PIT WR1 6.48.311 53
Mack Hollins NE WR2 9.84.80.91 45
DeMario Douglas NE WR1 6.950.91 33
Roman Wilson PIT WR2 5.64.211 24
Romeo Doubs NE WR3 4.54.30.91 19
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

PIT This season NE
47 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 59
43 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 53
64 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 56
53 Overall 54
QB 51 · OFF 49 · DEF 52 Last season QB 68 · OFF 63 · DEF 60

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

PIT Per game, this season NE
0.00Interceptions thrown3.00
2.00Interceptions caught0.00
1.00Fumbles lost0.00
2.00Fumbles forced0.00
4.00Takeaways0.00
1.00Giveaways3.00
+3Net turnover margin-3

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

PIT Offense NE
-0.038EPA per dropback+0.115
+0.3Completion % over expected+7.4
1.4%Interception rate3.4%
5.5%Sack rate taken9.6%
-0.060Rush EPA per carry-0.049
5.1%Explosive play rate6.3%
PIT Defense NE
-0.046EPA allowed per play-0.053
5.52Yards allowed per play5.33
4.9%Sack rate3.9%
1.8%Interception rate forced1.0%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is PIT, right is NE.

PIT This season NE
1Games1
221Pass yards/g178
58Rush yards/g109
1Passing TD1
0Interceptions thrown3
143Pass yards allowed/g200
120Rush yards allowed/g97
2Interceptions forced0
PIT Last season NE
210Pass yards/g251.8
101.1Rush yards/g126.8
26Passing TD37
10Interceptions thrown12
260.4Pass yards allowed/g200.9
115.9Rush yards allowed/g99.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

PIT 2026

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Aaron Rodgers124/40 60%221221 1 / 05.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jaylen Warren110 464.60
Rico Dowdle18 151.90

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DK Metcalf WR11 4/1040%40 400
Roman Wilson WR21 3/650%26 260
Pat Freiermuth TE1 5/5100%46 461
NE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB59

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye123/33 69.7%178178 1 / 35.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Rhamondre Stevenson118 512.80
Corey Kiner16 111.80

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DeMario Douglas WR11 5/771.4%20 200
Mack Hollins WR21 4/580%51 510
Hunter Henry TE1 3/3100%26 260

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

PIT 2025

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Aaron Rodgers17344/531 64.8%3468204 24 / 86.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jaylen Warren17223 10014.56
Kenny Gainwell18120 5574.65

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DK Metcalf WR116 61/10458.7%892 55.86
Calvin Austin III WR215 34/6155.7%380 25.33
Jonnu Smith TE18 40/5770.2%221 12.32
NE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB68

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye21424/612 69.3%5222248.7 37 / 128.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
TreVeyon Henderson21210 9874.79
Rhamondre Stevenson18188 8204.47

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Stefon Diggs WR121 99/12281.1%1123 53.55
Mack Hollins WR216 52/7569.3%679 42.43
Hunter Henry TE21 69/10267.6%880 41.98

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

PIT 2026
  1. Pat Freiermuth TE 1 0 rush · 1 rec
NE 2026
  1. Eli Raridon TE 1 0 rush · 1 rec

Final result

PIT 3 – 20 NE

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerNE 69%—NE wonRIGHT
Total points42.741.523no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginNE by 6.6NE −4.5NE by 17NE −4.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Aaron Rodgers PIT 208.5221 OVER 187 34 Less efficient (4.8 vs 6.1 yds/att) WRONG
Drake Maye NE 224.5213 UNDER 208 5 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Corey Kiner NE —17 no side 0 17 Fewer carries (2 vs 4.5 expected)
Rhamondre Stevenson NE 48.557 OVER 43 14 Fewer carries (6 vs 14.2 expected) WRONG
Rico Dowdle PIT 33.534 no side 22 12 Fewer carries (7 vs 10.7 expected) NO LEAN
Jaylen Warren PIT 41.554 OVER 43 11 Less efficient (3.9 vs 4.5 yds/carry) RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Romeo Doubs NE 39.519 UNDER 96 77 More efficient (24 vs 4.5 yds/tgt) WRONG
Mack Hollins NE 35.545 OVER 18 27 Fewer targets (2 vs 4.8 expected) WRONG
DK Metcalf PIT 59.553 UNDER 27 26 Less efficient (3 vs 6.4 yds/tgt) RIGHT
DeMario Douglas NE 34.533 no side 9 24 Fewer targets (2 vs 5 expected) NO LEAN
Roman Wilson PIT 33.524 UNDER 28 4 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.