Week 2 · Sunday 13:00

PHIPHI at TENTEN

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass

PHI moneyline-325
TEN moneyline+260
SpreadPHI -7
Total39.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chancePHI 76%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total44points, both teams
Leo marginPHI by 9.5expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Jalen Hurts PHI QB1 7.626.911 212
Cam Ward TEN QB1 5.431.90.91 172

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Saquon Barkley PHI RB1 4.916.51.11 88
Tony Pollard TEN RB1 4.610.611 54
Tyjae Spears TEN RB2 3.94.311 20
Will Shipley PHI RB2 1.61.51.11 6

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
DeVonta Smith PHI WR1 9.16.411 59
Dontayvion Wicks PHI WR2 12.53.811 48
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN WR1 6.77.40.91 48
Carnell Tate TEN WR2 6.360.91 37
Elic Ayomanor TEN WR3 5.14.30.91 22
Makai Lemon PHI WR3 -1.2411 0
Get Leo’s NFL card by email

Every game, Leo’s winner and total, and the most likely touchdown scorers, before kickoff. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

PHI This season TEN
58 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 30
54 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 32
56 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 33
55 Overall 33
QB 57 · OFF 52 · DEF 59 Last season QB 31 · OFF 32 · DEF 37

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

PHI Per game, this season TEN
0.00Interceptions thrown0.00
0.00Interceptions caught0.00
0.00Fumbles lost0.00
1.00Fumbles forced0.00
1.00Takeaways0.00
0.00Giveaways0.00
+1Net turnover margin0

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

PHI Offense TEN
+0.049EPA per dropback-0.212
+2.0Completion % over expected-2.7
1.1%Interception rate1.1%
7.2%Sack rate taken8.9%
+0.002Rush EPA per carry-0.031
5.8%Explosive play rate4.1%
PHI Defense TEN
-0.047EPA allowed per play+0.099
5.07Yards allowed per play6.06
3.3%Sack rate3.3%
1.0%Interception rate forced0.5%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is PHI, right is TEN.

PHI This season TEN
1Games1
203Pass yards/g140
136Rush yards/g68
3Passing TD1
0Interceptions thrown0
164Pass yards allowed/g215
132Rush yards allowed/g152
0Interceptions forced0
PHI Last season TEN
203.7Pass yards/g190.6
118.2Rush yards/g93.5
27Passing TD15
7Interceptions thrown8
209.3Pass yards allowed/g248.3
121.7Rush yards allowed/g114.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

PHI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB58

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jalen Hurts114/25 56%203203 3 / 08.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Saquon Barkley115 835.50
Will Shipley12 420

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DeVonta Smith WR11 3/650%53 530
Dontayvion Wicks WR21 2/450%73 731
Dallas Goedert TE1 4/580%77 772
TEN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB30

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Cam Ward119/32 59.4%140140 1 / 04.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tony Pollard17 3550
Tyjae Spears13 1240

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Wan'Dale Robinson WR11 5/683.3%38 380
Carnell Tate WR21 4/666.7%38 380
Gunnar Helm TE1 4/580%28 280

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

PHI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB57

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jalen Hurts17314/489 64.2%3392199.5 26 / 66.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Saquon Barkley17306 12464.17
Tank Bigsby1562 3635.92

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
A.J. Brown WR116 81/12863.3%1028 64.37
DeVonta Smith WR218 85/12468.5%1078 59.94
Dallas Goedert TE16 64/8971.9%624 3912
TEN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Cam Ward17323/540 59.8%3169186.4 15 / 75.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tony Pollard17242 10824.55
Tyjae Spears1372 2833.92

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Elic Ayomanor WR116 41/8946.1%515 32.24
Chimere Dike WR217 48/7464.9%423 24.94
Chig Okonkwo TE17 56/7970.9%560 32.92

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

PHI 2026
  1. Dallas Goedert TE 2 0 rush · 2 rec
  2. Dontayvion Wicks WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec
TEN 2026
  1. Elic Ayomanor WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec

Final result

PHI 24 – 20 TEN

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerPHI 76%—PHI wonRIGHT
Total points4439.544OVER · RIGHT
MarginPHI by 9.5PHI −7PHI by 4PHI −7 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jalen Hurts PHI 206.5212 no side 264 52 More attempts (37 vs 26.9 expected) NO LEAN
Cam Ward TEN 187.5172 UNDER 183 11 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Saquon Barkley PHI 79.588 OVER 9 79 Fewer carries (4 vs 16.5 expected) WRONG
Tyjae Spears TEN 16.520 OVER 41 21 More efficient (5.9 vs 3.9 yds/carry) RIGHT
Will Shipley PHI —6 no side 24 18 More efficient (3.4 vs 1.6 yds/carry)
Tony Pollard TEN 40.554 OVER 64 10 More carries (14 vs 10.6 expected) RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
DeVonta Smith PHI 60.559 no side 117 58 More targets (13 vs 6.4 expected) NO LEAN
Elic Ayomanor TEN —22 no side 69 47 More efficient (23 vs 5.1 yds/tgt)
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN 37.548 OVER 9 39 Fewer targets (1 vs 7.4 expected) WRONG
Dontayvion Wicks PHI 31.548 OVER 74 26 More targets (6 vs 3.8 expected) RIGHT
Makai Lemon PHI 24.50 UNDER 14 14 More efficient (14 vs -1.2 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Carnell Tate TEN 39.537 UNDER 27 10 Fewer targets (5 vs 6 expected) RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.