Week 2 · Monday 20:15

NYG at

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

NYG moneyline+240

LA moneyline-298

SpreadLA -6.5

Total47.5

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 21, 1:41 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceLA 59%chance to win; information, not a pick

Leo total47.9points, both teams

Leo marginLA by 3.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Player	yds/att	att	opp adj	games	Leo
Matthew Stafford LA QB1	7	30.4	1	1	212
Jaxson Dart NYG QB1	6.8	26.6	1	1	185

Rushing yards

Player	yds/carry	car	opp adj	games	Leo
Cam Skattebo NYG RB1	4	15.3	1.1	1	72
Kyren Williams LA RB1	4.3	13.1	0.9	1	55
Blake Corum LA RB2	5.4	9.3	0.9	1	49
Devin Singletary NYG RB2	3	6.5	1.1	1	25

Receiving yards

Player	yds/tgt	tgt	opp adj	games	Leo
Puka Nacua LA WR1	9	10	1	1	87
Malik Nabers NYG WR1	7.2	8.9	1	1	64
Davante Adams LA WR2	5.8	7.1	1	1	40
Darnell Mooney NYG WR3	10.7	3.4	1	1	37
Malachi Fields NYG WR2	6.3	4	1	1	26
Jordan Whittington LA WR3	7.1	1.3	1	1	10

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

NYG This season LA

60 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 61

59 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 61

37 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 50

48 Overall 55

QB 47 · OFF 53 · DEF 39 Last season QB 72 · OFF 73 · DEF 55

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

NYG	Per game, this season	LA
0.00	Interceptions thrown	1.00
1.00	Interceptions caught	1.00
1.00	Fumbles lost	1.00
0.00	Fumbles forced	0.00
1.00	Takeaways	1.00
1.00	Giveaways	2.00
0	Net turnover margin	-1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

NYG	Offense	LA
+0.151	EPA per dropback	+0.147
+1.9	Completion % over expected	-0.4
1.5%	Interception rate	1.7%
8.0%	Sack rate taken	3.1%
+0.019	Rush EPA per carry	-0.025
4.9%	Explosive play rate	6.8%
NYG	Defense	LA
+0.106	EPA allowed per play	+0.017
5.78	Yards allowed per play	5.59
2.9%	Sack rate	3.2%
1.1%	Interception rate forced	1.6%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NYG, right is LA.

NYG	This season	LA
1	Games	1
230	Pass yards/g	168
165	Rush yards/g	122
3	Passing TD	0
0	Interceptions thrown	1
175	Pass yards allowed/g	205
69	Rush yards allowed/g	174
1	Interceptions forced	1
NYG	Last season	LA
217.8	Pass yards/g	282.2
129.1	Rush yards/g	124.7
21	Passing TD	52
10	Interceptions thrown	9
229.9	Pass yards allowed/g	242.8
145.3	Rush yards allowed/g	110.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

NYG 2026

Quarterback Leo QB60

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jaxson Dart	1	23/29	79.3%	230	230	3 / 0	7.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Cam Skattebo	1	18	81	4.5	1
Devin Singletary	1	6	16	2.7	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Malik Nabers WR1	1	6/9	66.7%	69	69	0
Malachi Fields WR2	1	2/4	50%	25	25	0
Isaiah Likely TE	1	8/8	100%	78	78	2

LA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB61

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Matthew Stafford	1	15/25	60%	155	155	0 / 1	6.2

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Kyren Williams	1	11	41	3.7	1
Blake Corum	1	10	54	5.4	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G
Puka Nacua WR1	1	5/9	55.6%	74	74
Davante Adams WR2	1	3/6	50%	26	26
Tyler Higbee TE	1	2/2	100%	12	12

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

NYG 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jaxson Dart	14	216/339	63.7%	2272	162.3	15 / 5	6.7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	15	176	740	4.2	2
Devin Singletary	17	119	437	3.7	5

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Wan'Dale Robinson WR1	16	92/140	65.7%	1014	63.4	4
Darius Slayton WR2	14	37/63	58.7%	538	38.4	1
Theo Johnson TE	15	45/74	60.8%	528	35.2	5

LA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Matthew Stafford	20	454/716	63.4%	5643	282.2	52 / 9	7.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Kyren Williams	20	303	1435	4.7	12
Blake Corum	20	171	865	5.1	6

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Puka Nacua WR1	19	153/208	73.6%	2047	107.7	12
Davante Adams WR2	17	71/139	51.1%	974	57.3	15
Colby Parkinson TE	17	51/70	72.9%	560	32.9	9

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

NYG 2026

Isaiah Likely TE 2 0 rush · 2 rec
Devin Singletary RB 1 0 rush · 1 rec
Cam Skattebo RB 1 1 rush · 0 rec

LA 2026

Kyren Williams RB 1 1 rush · 0 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.