Week 2 · Sunday 13:00

NONO at BALBAL

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass

NO moneyline+295
BAL moneyline-375
SpreadBAL -8.5
Total45.5

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceBAL 76%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total49.4points, both teams
Leo marginBAL by 9.2expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Tyler Shough NO QB1 7.142.90.91 297
Lamar Jackson BAL QB1 10.924.111 268

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Derrick Henry BAL RB1 5.6211.11 130
Travis Etienne NO RB1 4.71211 58
Kendre Miller NO RB2 3.87.911 32
Justice Hill BAL RB2 3.13.91.11 16

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Chris Olave NO WR1 10.911.40.91 119
Zay Flowers BAL WR1 17.86.511 114
Devaughn Vele NO WR2 7.16.70.91 46
Bryce Lance NO WR3 10.540.91 41
Chris Moore BAL WR2 17.72.211 38
LaJohntay Wester BAL WR3 3.8111 5
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

NO This season BAL
44 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 56
38 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 62
55 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 50
46 Overall 56
QB 45 · OFF 36 · DEF 59 Last season QB 51 · OFF 55 · DEF 45

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

NO Per game, this season BAL
2.00Interceptions thrown0.00
0.00Interceptions caught1.00
1.00Fumbles lost1.00
1.00Fumbles forced1.00
1.00Takeaways2.00
3.00Giveaways1.00
-2Net turnover margin+1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

NO Offense BAL
-0.033EPA per dropback+0.084
+1.0Completion % over expected+3.3
2.3%Interception rate2.1%
7.8%Sack rate taken9.2%
-0.106Rush EPA per carry+0.103
4.2%Explosive play rate7.1%
NO Defense BAL
-0.039EPA allowed per play-0.013
5.11Yards allowed per play5.58
3.6%Sack rate3.0%
0.8%Interception rate forced1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NO, right is BAL.

NO This season BAL
1Games1
410Pass yards/g324
91Rush yards/g202
3Passing TD1
2Interceptions thrown0
206Pass yards allowed/g166
165Rush yards allowed/g102
0Interceptions forced1
NO Last season BAL
236.9Pass yards/g192.8
94.3Rush yards/g156.6
19Passing TD23
12Interceptions thrown11
196.2Pass yards allowed/g259
120.6Rush yards allowed/g106.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

NO 2026

Quarterback Leo QB44

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough135/56 62.5%410410 3 / 27.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Travis Etienne19 465.10
Kendre Miller19 303.31

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR11 10/1376.9%182 1820
Devaughn Vele WR21 7/977.8%69 691
Noah Fant TE1 4/850%33 331
BAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB56

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Lamar Jackson117/25 68%324324 1 / 013

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Derrick Henry124 14463
Justice Hill16 1830

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Zay Flowers WR11 5/683.3%150 1501
Ja'Kobi Lane WR21 1/333.3%11 110
Mark Andrews TE1 4/666.7%49 490

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

NO 2025

Quarterback Leo QB45

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough11221/327 67.6%2384216.7 10 / 67.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Alvin Kamara11131 4713.61
Devin Neal957 2063.62

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR116 100/15664.1%1163 72.79
Rashid Shaheed WR29 44/6666.7%499 55.42
Juwan Johnson TE17 77/10275.5%889 52.33
BAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Lamar Jackson13192/302 63.6%2549196.1 21 / 78.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Derrick Henry17307 15955.216
Keaton Mitchell1359 3415.81

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Zay Flowers WR117 86/11872.9%1211 71.25
DeAndre Hopkins WR217 22/3956.4%330 19.42
Mark Andrews TE17 48/7068.6%422 24.85

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

NO 2026
  1. Noah Fant TE 1 0 rush · 1 rec
  2. Juwan Johnson TE 1 0 rush · 1 rec
  3. Kendre Miller RB 1 1 rush · 0 rec
BAL 2026
  1. Derrick Henry RB 3 3 rush · 0 rec
  2. Lamar Jackson QB 1 1 rush · 0 rec
  3. Zay Flowers WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec

Final result

NO 24 – 17 BAL

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerBAL 76%—NO wonWRONG
Total points49.445.541OVER · WRONG
MarginBAL by 9.2BAL −8.5NO by 7no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tyler Shough NO 231.5297 OVER 252 45 Fewer attempts (34 vs 42.9 expected) RIGHT
Lamar Jackson BAL 209.5268 OVER 235 33 Less efficient (7.6 vs 10.9 yds/att) RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Derrick Henry BAL 95.5130 OVER 68 62 Fewer carries (16 vs 21 expected) WRONG
Travis Etienne NO —58 no side 25 33 Fewer carries (8 vs 12 expected)
Justice Hill BAL 13.516 OVER 6 10 Fewer carries (2 vs 3.9 expected) WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Chris Olave NO 68.5119 OVER 86 33 Less efficient (8.6 vs 10.9 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Bryce Lance NO 19.541 OVER 8 33 Fewer targets (1 vs 4 expected) WRONG
Chris Moore BAL —38 no side 6 32 Less efficient (2 vs 17.7 yds/tgt)
Devaughn Vele NO 43.546 OVER 64 18 More efficient (9.1 vs 7.1 yds/tgt) RIGHT
LaJohntay Wester BAL —5 no side 14 9 More efficient (7 vs 3.8 yds/tgt)

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.