Week 2 · Sunday 13:00

MINMIN at CHICHI

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · Division game

MIN moneyline+180
CHI moneyline-218
SpreadCHI -4.5
Total46.5

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceCHI 62%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total52.9points, both teams
Leo marginCHI by 4.1expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Caleb Williams CHI QB1 8.131.81.11 305
Carson Wentz MIN QB1 7.126.41.11 219

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
D'Andre Swift CHI RB1 5.816.10.91 88
Kyle Monangai CHI RB2 6.9100.91 66
Aaron Jones MIN RB1 3.711.511 46

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Justin Jefferson MIN WR1 8.78.61.11 86
Rome Odunze CHI WR3 125.11.11 72
Luther Burden III CHI WR2 10.64.71.11 58
Kalif Raymond CHI WR1 8.55.51.11 55
Jordan Addison MIN WR2 43.81.11 18
Jauan Jennings MIN WR3 3.63.41.11 15
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

MIN This season CHI
31 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 62
35 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 72
64 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 42
49 Overall 57
QB 27 · OFF 33 · DEF 62 Last season QB 53 · OFF 63 · DEF 48

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

MIN Per game, this season CHI
1.00Interceptions thrown0.00
1.00Interceptions caught1.00
0.00Fumbles lost1.00
2.00Fumbles forced1.00
3.00Takeaways2.00
1.00Giveaways1.00
+2Net turnover margin+1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

MIN Offense CHI
-0.145EPA per dropback+0.191
-3.2Completion % over expected+0.2
4.3%Interception rate1.4%
11.0%Sack rate taken4.2%
-0.035Rush EPA per carry+0.110
4.5%Explosive play rate7.6%
MIN Defense CHI
-0.105EPA allowed per play+0.078
5.36Yards allowed per play6.44
5.0%Sack rate3.4%
0.9%Interception rate forced1.9%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is MIN, right is CHI.

MIN This season CHI
1Games1
151Pass yards/g269
107Rush yards/g291
3Passing TD2
1Interceptions thrown0
387Pass yards allowed/g361
66Rush yards allowed/g125
1Interceptions forced1
MIN Last season CHI
188.7Pass yards/g242.6
108.3Rush yards/g142.6
18Passing TD32
21Interceptions thrown12
177.7Pass yards allowed/g244.6
124.1Rush yards allowed/g131.4

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

MIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Carson Wentz112/19 63.2%133133 3 / 07

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jordan Mason115 593.91
Aaron Jones112 403.31

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Justin Jefferson WR11 8/988.9%92 922
Jordan Addison WR21 0/20%0 00
T.J. Hockenson TE1 4/580%36 361
CHI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB62

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Caleb Williams121/29 72.4%269269 2 / 09.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
D'Andre Swift118 1246.93
Kyle Monangai110 100101

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Kalif Raymond WR11 8/988.9%84 840
Luther Burden III WR21 5/5100%63 630
Cole Kmet TE1 2/366.7%35 351

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

MIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB27

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
J.J. McCarthy10140/243 57.6%1632163.2 11 / 126.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jordan Mason16159 7584.86
Aaron Jones12132 5484.22

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Justin Jefferson WR117 84/14159.6%1048 61.62
Jordan Addison WR214 42/7953.2%610 43.63
T.J. Hockenson TE15 51/6677.3%438 29.23
CHI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB53

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Caleb Williams19377/658 57.3%4560240 31 / 126.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
D'Andre Swift18255 12174.810
Kyle Monangai19190 8464.55

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rome Odunze WR114 48/10247.1%749 53.56
DJ Moore WR219 61/10061%798 428
Colston Loveland TE18 70/10765.4%906 50.36

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

MIN 2026
  1. Justin Jefferson WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec
  2. Aaron Jones RB 1 1 rush · 0 rec
  3. T.J. Hockenson TE 1 0 rush · 1 rec
CHI 2026
  1. D'Andre Swift RB 3 3 rush · 0 rec
  2. Caleb Williams QB 2 2 rush · 0 rec
  3. Cole Kmet TE 1 0 rush · 1 rec

Final result

MIN 9 – 3 CHI

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerCHI 62%—MIN wonWRONG
Total points52.946.512OVER · WRONG
MarginCHI by 4.1CHI −4.5MIN by 6no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Caleb Williams CHI 225.5305 OVER 138 167 Less efficient (5.3 vs 8.1 yds/att) WRONG
Carson Wentz MIN 212.5219 no side 143 76 Fewer attempts (20 vs 26.4 expected) NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Aaron Jones MIN 54.546 UNDER 105 59 More carries (23 vs 11.5 expected) WRONG
D'Andre Swift CHI 60.588 OVER 45 43 Less efficient (2.8 vs 5.8 yds/carry) WRONG
Kyle Monangai CHI 36.566 OVER 47 19 Less efficient (4.7 vs 6.9 yds/carry) RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Justin Jefferson MIN 79.586 OVER 55 31 Fewer targets (6 vs 8.6 expected) WRONG
Rome Odunze CHI 39.572 OVER 43 29 Fewer targets (4 vs 5.1 expected) RIGHT
Luther Burden III CHI 49.558 OVER 32 26 Less efficient (4.6 vs 10.6 yds/tgt) WRONG
Kalif Raymond CHI 23.555 OVER 40 15 Fewer targets (5 vs 5.5 expected) RIGHT
Jordan Addison MIN 39.518 UNDER 21 3 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.