Week 2 · Sunday 16:25

MIAMIA at SFSF

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass

MIA moneyline+600
SF moneyline-900
SpreadSF -12.5
Total44.5

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceSF 84%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total45.3points, both teams
Leo marginSF by 12.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Brock Purdy SF QB1 6.732.50.91 215
Malik Willis MIA QB1 8.417.911 151

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Christian McCaffrey SF RB2 5.313.911 77
Kaelon Black SF RB1 4.61411 69
De'Von Achane MIA RB1 4.512.911 62
Jaylen Wright MIA RB2 1.74.411 11

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Caleb Douglas MIA WR2 13.4711 90
Mike Evans SF WR1 6.77.40.91 48
Deebo Samuel Sr. SF WR2 7.16.60.91 45
Malik Washington MIA WR1 6.45.911 37
Demarcus Robinson SF WR3 12.22.80.91 34
Chris Bell MIA WR3 12.5211 25
Get Leo’s NFL card by email

Every game, Leo’s winner and total, and the most likely touchdown scorers, before kickoff. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

MIA This season SF
39 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 64
45 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 58
42 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 40
44 Overall 49
QB 47 · OFF 48 · DEF 39 Last season QB 63 · OFF 56 · DEF 35

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

MIA Per game, this season SF
1.00Interceptions thrown1.00
2.00Interceptions caught1.00
1.00Fumbles lost0.00
0.00Fumbles forced2.00
2.00Takeaways3.00
2.00Giveaways1.00
0Net turnover margin+2

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

MIA Offense SF
-0.027EPA per dropback+0.149
-0.5Completion % over expected+3.9
3.7%Interception rate3.0%
9.0%Sack rate taken3.6%
-0.051Rush EPA per carry+0.002
7.0%Explosive play rate4.2%
MIA Defense SF
+0.054EPA allowed per play+0.024
5.69Yards allowed per play5.57
3.0%Sack rate1.6%
1.3%Interception rate forced0.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is MIA, right is SF.

MIA This season SF
1Games1
220Pass yards/g205
74Rush yards/g174
0Passing TD3
1Interceptions thrown1
160Pass yards allowed/g168
130Rush yards allowed/g122
2Interceptions forced1
MIA Last season SF
195.4Pass yards/g250.2
120.2Rush yards/g105.3
23Passing TD36
18Interceptions thrown19
230.6Pass yards allowed/g231.7
132.4Rush yards allowed/g113.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

MIA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB39

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Malik Willis115/27 55.6%220220 0 / 18.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
De'Von Achane111 363.30
Jaylen Wright11 -1-10

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Malik Washington WR11 3/837.5%53 530
Caleb Douglas WR21 5/771.4%94 940
Greg Dulcich TE1 2/2100%18 180
SF 2026

Quarterback Leo QB64

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Brock Purdy125/34 73.5%205205 3 / 16

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kaelon Black114 654.60
Christian McCaffrey110 686.80

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Mike Evans WR11 6/785.7%49 491
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR21 6/785.7%48 481
George Kittle TE1 2/540%12 120

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

MIA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tua Tagovailoa14260/384 67.7%2660190 20 / 156.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
De'Von Achane16238 13505.78
Ollie Gordon II1770 1992.83

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaylen Waddle WR116 64/10064%910 56.96
Malik Washington WR217 46/6570.8%317 18.63
Darren Waller TE9 24/3470.6%283 31.46
SF 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Brock Purdy11230/342 67.3%2569233.5 22 / 137.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Christian McCaffrey19337 12853.810
Brian Robinson1995 4044.32

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jauan Jennings WR117 58/9859.2%711 41.89
Ricky Pearsall WR210 36/5565.5%528 52.80
George Kittle TE12 58/7181.7%634 52.87

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

MIA 2026
  1. Malik Willis QB 1 1 rush · 0 rec
SF 2026
  1. Mike Evans WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec
  2. Demarcus Robinson WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec
  3. Deebo Samuel Sr. WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec

Final result

MIA 13 – 35 SF

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerSF 84%—SF wonRIGHT
Total points45.344.548no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginSF by 12.9SF −13.5SF by 22no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Brock Purdy SF 239.5215 UNDER 287 72 More efficient (13 vs 6.7 yds/att) WRONG
Malik Willis MIA 185.5151 UNDER 197 46 More attempts (23 vs 17.9 expected) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Christian McCaffrey SF 60.577 OVER 23 54 Less efficient (2.3 vs 5.3 yds/carry) WRONG
Kaelon Black SF 37.569 OVER 25 44 Fewer carries (7 vs 14 expected) WRONG
De'Von Achane MIA 58.562 OVER 74 12 More carries (20 vs 12.9 expected) RIGHT
Jaylen Wright MIA —11 no side 11 0 On target

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Caleb Douglas MIA 38.590 OVER 19 71 Fewer targets (3 vs 7 expected) WRONG
Chris Bell MIA 19.525 OVER 0 25 Fewer targets (1 vs 2 expected) WRONG
Deebo Samuel Sr. SF 36.545 OVER 31 14 Fewer targets (4 vs 6.6 expected) WRONG
Malik Washington MIA 34.537 OVER 43 6 On target RIGHT
Mike Evans SF 48.548 no side 54 6 On target NO LEAN
Demarcus Robinson SF 26.534 OVER 34 0 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.