Week 3 · Sunday 16:25

LVLV at NONO

Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf

LV moneyline+160
NO moneyline-192
SpreadNO -3.5
Total43.5

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 27, 3:50 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceNO 59%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total43.5points, both teams
Leo marginNO by 2.8expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Tyler Shough NO QB1 7.338.812 268
Kirk Cousins LV QB1 6.830.312 196

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Ashton Jeanty LV RB1 3.418.81.12 72
Kendre Miller NO RB1 3.87.911 32
Alvin Kamara NO RB2 2.610.511 29
Mike Washington Jr. LV RB2 4.151.12 25

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Chris Olave NO WR1 9.610.512 96
Tre Tucker LV WR1 9.85.412 52
Devaughn Vele NO WR2 7.55.612 39
Jack Bech LV WR3 8.12.512 19
Jalen Nailor LV WR2 5.53.612 18
Bryce Lance NO WR3 9.32.212 18
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

LV This season NO
40 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 48
29 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 43
62 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 52
45 Overall 48
QB 31 · OFF 21 · DEF 47 Last season QB 45 · OFF 36 · DEF 59

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

LV Per game, this season NO
1.50Interceptions thrown1.00
1.50Interceptions caught0.50
0.00Fumbles lost0.50
3.00Fumbles forced0.50
4.50Takeaways1.00
1.50Giveaways1.50
+3Net turnover margin-0.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

LV Offense NO
-0.089EPA per dropback+0.009
0.0Completion % over expected+2.6
4.2%Interception rate2.1%
8.5%Sack rate taken7.8%
-0.268Rush EPA per carry-0.096
4.3%Explosive play rate4.8%
LV Defense NO
-0.066EPA allowed per play-0.015
5.33Yards allowed per play5.25
4.6%Sack rate3.8%
1.4%Interception rate forced0.9%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LV, right is NO.

LV This season NO
2Games2
206.5Pass yards/g331
93.5Rush yards/g78
6Passing TD4
3Interceptions thrown2
206Pass yards allowed/g220.5
100.5Rush yards allowed/g136.5
3Interceptions forced1
LV Last season NO
195Pass yards/g236.9
77.5Rush yards/g94.3
20Passing TD19
19Interceptions thrown12
214.4Pass yards allowed/g196.2
116.8Rush yards allowed/g120.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

LV 2026

Quarterback Leo QB40

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Kirk Cousins240/59 67.8%413206.5 6 / 37

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty244 1503.40
Mike Washington Jr.210 484.80

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Tucker WR12 7/1163.6%146 731
Jalen Nailor WR22 4/850%36 180
Michael Mayer TE2 9/1181.8%55 27.50
NO 2026

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough262/90 68.9%662331 4 / 27.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Travis Etienne217 714.20
Kendre Miller19 303.31

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR12 18/2378.3%268 1341
Devaughn Vele WR22 12/1675%133 66.51
Juwan Johnson TE2 7/1163.6%120 601

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

LV 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith15302/448 67.4%3025201.7 19 / 176.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty17266 9753.75
Raheem Mostert1222 1044.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Tucker WR117 57/9262%696 40.95
Jakobi Meyers WR27 33/4967.3%352 50.30
Brock Bowers TE12 64/8674.4%680 56.77
NO 2025

Quarterback Leo QB45

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough11221/327 67.6%2384216.7 10 / 67.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Alvin Kamara11131 4713.61
Devin Neal957 2063.62

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR116 100/15664.1%1163 72.79
Rashid Shaheed WR29 44/6666.7%499 55.42
Juwan Johnson TE17 77/10275.5%889 52.33

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Chris Olave (NO, 38%) and Kendre Miller (NO, 32%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
LV Leo’s chance
  1. Tre Tucker WR1 30% no TD
  2. Mike Washington Jr. RB2 24% scored
  3. Ashton Jeanty RB1 20% no TD
NO Leo’s chance
  1. Chris Olave WR1 38% no TD
  2. Kendre Miller RB1 32% no TD
  3. Devaughn Vele WR2 28% no TD

Final result

LV 35 – 27 NO

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

LV
Kirk Cousins QB 22/33248 yds3 TD0 INT
Ashton Jeanty RB 19 car56 yds0 TD3 rec, 37 yds
Mike Washington Jr. RB 5 car54 yds1 TD
Brock Bowers TE 10/13116 yds1 TD
Tre Tucker WR 4/443 yds0 TD
Ashton Jeanty RB 3/337 yds0 TD
NO
Tyler Shough QB 29/42255 yds4 TD1 INT
Travis Etienne RB 13 car57 yds0 TD2 rec, 13 yds
Alvin Kamara RB 9 car36 yds0 TD1 rec, 5 yds
Kendre Miller RB 4 car14 yds0 TD2 rec, 5 yds
Chris Olave WR 9/13107 yds0 TD
Juwan Johnson TE 8/853 yds2 TD
Devaughn Vele WR 3/639 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerNO 59%—LV wonNO PICK
Total points43.543.562no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginNO by 2.8NO −3.5LV by 8no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Kirk Cousins LV 211.5196 UNDER 248 52 More efficient (7.5 vs 6.8 yds/att) WRONG
Tyler Shough NO 253.5268 OVER 255 13 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Mike Washington Jr. LV 15.525 OVER 54 29 More efficient (10.8 vs 4.1 yds/carry) RIGHT
Kendre Miller NO —32 no side 14 18 Fewer carries (4 vs 7.9 expected)
Ashton Jeanty LV 68.572 OVER 56 16 Less efficient (2.9 vs 3.4 yds/carry) WRONG
Alvin Kamara NO 24.529 OVER 36 7 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Bryce Lance NO 15.518 OVER 0 18 Less efficient (0 vs 9.3 yds/tgt) WRONG
Chris Olave NO 76.596 OVER 107 11 More targets (13 vs 10.5 expected) RIGHT
Tre Tucker LV 41.552 OVER 43 9 Fewer targets (4 vs 5.4 expected) RIGHT
Jalen Nailor LV 24.518 UNDER 16 2 On target RIGHT
Devaughn Vele NO 50.539 UNDER 39 0 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.