Week 2 · Sunday 16:05

LVLV at LACLAC

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf · Division game

LV moneyline+260
LAC moneyline-325
SpreadLAC -6.5
Total43.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceLAC 62%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total43points, both teams
Leo marginLAC by 4expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Justin Herbert LAC QB1 7.529.511 227
Kirk Cousins LV QB1 5.728.511 178

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Ashton Jeanty LV RB1 419.311 79
Omarion Hampton LAC RB1 3.712.30.91 46
Mike Washington Jr. LV RB2 5.9711 44
Keaton Mitchell LAC RB2 3.84.30.91 18

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Ladd McConkey LAC WR1 9.76.711 66
Tre Tucker LV WR2 7.34.711 37
Quentin Johnston LAC WR2 5.56.211 35
Jalen Nailor LV WR1 6.14.111 27
Tre Harris LAC WR3 5.34.411 24
Jack Bech LV WR3 6.4311 22
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

LV This season LAC
35 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 38
24 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 40
56 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 59
40 Overall 49
QB 31 · OFF 21 · DEF 47 Last season QB 43 · OFF 45 · DEF 66

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

LV Per game, this season LAC
2.00Interceptions thrown1.00
1.00Interceptions caught0.00
0.00Fumbles lost1.00
2.00Fumbles forced0.00
3.00Takeaways0.00
2.00Giveaways2.00
+1Net turnover margin-2

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

LV Offense LAC
-0.146EPA per dropback-0.081
-0.5Completion % over expected-1.1
4.3%Interception rate2.6%
8.8%Sack rate taken9.9%
-0.237Rush EPA per carry-0.078
3.8%Explosive play rate4.9%
LV Defense LAC
-0.024EPA allowed per play-0.043
5.38Yards allowed per play5.38
4.7%Sack rate4.2%
1.0%Interception rate forced1.6%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LV, right is LAC.

LV This season LAC
1Games1
160Pass yards/g209
130Rush yards/g81
3Passing TD1
2Interceptions thrown1
220Pass yards allowed/g277
74Rush yards allowed/g116
1Interceptions forced0
LV Last season LAC
195Pass yards/g228.4
77.5Rush yards/g119.7
20Passing TD26
19Interceptions thrown14
214.4Pass yards allowed/g199
116.8Rush yards allowed/g107.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

LV 2026

Quarterback Leo QB35

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Kirk Cousins121/30 70%160160 3 / 25.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty123 1024.40
Mike Washington Jr.17 415.90

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jalen Nailor WR11 3/560%27 270
Tre Tucker WR21 2/450%27 270
Michael Mayer TE1 6/785.7%32 320
LAC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB38

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert117/27 63%209209 1 / 17.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Omarion Hampton112 433.61
Keaton Mitchell14 92.30

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Ladd McConkey WR11 5/771.4%82 821
Quentin Johnston WR21 2/633.3%17 170
David Njoku TE1 5/5100%58 580

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

LV 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith15302/448 67.4%3025201.7 19 / 176.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty17266 9753.75
Raheem Mostert1222 1044.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Tucker WR117 57/9262%696 40.95
Jakobi Meyers WR27 33/4967.3%352 50.30
Brock Bowers TE12 64/8674.4%680 56.77
LAC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB43

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert17359/543 66.1%3886228.6 26 / 137.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kimani Vidal14166 6744.13
Omarion Hampton10125 5444.44

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Keenan Allen WR118 84/13064.6%802 44.64
Ladd McConkey WR217 69/11062.7%821 48.36
Oronde Gadsden II TE16 52/7272.2%694 43.43

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

LV 2026
  1. Ashton Jeanty RB 2 0 rush · 2 rec
  2. Jack Bech WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec
LAC 2026
  1. Ladd McConkey WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec
  2. Omarion Hampton RB 1 1 rush · 0 rec

Final result

LV 26 – 14 LAC

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerLAC 62%—LV wonWRONG
Total points4343.540no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginLAC by 4LAC −7LV by 12LV +7 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Kirk Cousins LV 194.5178 UNDER 253 75 More efficient (8.7 vs 5.7 yds/att) WRONG
Justin Herbert LAC 223.5227 no side 192 35 Fewer attempts (27 vs 29.5 expected) NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Omarion Hampton LAC 64.546 UNDER 94 48 More carries (23 vs 12.3 expected) WRONG
Mike Washington Jr. LV 18.544 OVER 7 37 Fewer carries (3 vs 7 expected) WRONG
Ashton Jeanty LV 62.579 OVER 48 31 Less efficient (2.3 vs 4 yds/carry) WRONG
Keaton Mitchell LAC 23.518 UNDER 24 6 On target WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tre Tucker LV 36.537 no side 119 82 More efficient (17 vs 7.3 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Ladd McConkey LAC 41.566 OVER 35 31 Fewer targets (3 vs 6.7 expected) WRONG
Tre Harris LAC 30.524 UNDER 53 29 More efficient (17.7 vs 5.3 yds/tgt) WRONG
Quentin Johnston LAC 46.535 UNDER 7 28 Less efficient (1.4 vs 5.5 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Jalen Nailor LV 32.527 UNDER 9 18 Less efficient (3 vs 6.1 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Jack Bech LV —22 no side 25 3 On target

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.